Why France’s nuclear strategy pivot is so significant

French President Emmanuel Macron said during a historic speech this week on nuclear deterrence: “To be free, one must be afraid. To be feared, one must be strong.”

France is one of only two nuclear powers in Europe and, unlike the United Kingdom, operates a nuclear weapons system completely independent of the United States

As the United States and Israel continued to strike Iran, and European leaders appeared divided and marginalized as they scrambled to respond, Macron delivered a speech on Monday that was “the most important update to French nuclear deterrence policy in 30 years,” Bruno Tertreis, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, said in an X story.

Speaking from a naval base in Brittany in front of the Le Témérair submarine, Macron’s 45-minute speech outlined what he called France’s new “forward deterrence” doctrine.

Macron said France would increase the number of its nuclear warheads and promised more cooperation with European allies who have shown interest.

He said several European countries – Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark – could participate in French air-launched nuclear capability exercises and French nuclear bombers could be stationed at their air bases. Macron also said that France would stop revealing figures on its nuclear arsenal.

He said in his speech, “The world has become more difficult, and recent events have shown this once again.”

He added, “We must strengthen our nuclear deterrent in the face of a range of threats, and we must study our deterrence strategy deep within the European continent, with full respect for our sovereignty, through the gradual implementation of what I call forward deterrence.”

Yannick Pinset, An associate professor of history at the Nouvelle Sorbonne told CNBC that the speech should be viewed in the context of next year’s presidential election, which a far-right candidate from the National Rally party could win.

“He needed to make a politically acceptable speech, to announce measures that will be difficult to reverse in the coming year,” Pinset said.

“At the same time, he needed to have enough credibility with our allies. He was walking a tightrope, and in my view, he succeeded fairly well.”

Independent nuclear deterrence has been a cornerstone of France’s defense strategy for more than sixty years.

But Macron said the doctrine must evolve with the threats. In 2020, Macron hinted at a shift when he said that France’s “vital interests” – the definition of which remains deliberately vague – now had a “European dimension”.

Macron said on Monday that the years following 2020 “weigh like decades, and the last few months weigh like years.”

“Our competitors have evolved, and so have our partners,” he said, adding that “the last few hours” of the escalating conflict in the Middle East showed how the world had become “crueler.”

Macron pointed to the war in Ukraine and the threat posed by Russia, as well as China and the changing defense priorities of the United States.

In line with historical nuclear doctrine, Macron said that the decision to use force “is up to the President of the Republic alone,” rejecting explicit “guarantees” to partner countries.

Ankit Panda, a Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the speech “brilliant.”