Why China won’t mind a closure of the Strait of Hormuz

When the United States rained bombs and missiles on Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday-which enters the war between Israel and Iran-it seems that Beijing stands in its support for its old ally in Tehran.

However, its support will be reduced through its limited weight as a peace medium in the region, and a potential oud lack of oil if you press oil on the United States more than Beijing will harm Beijing..

Beijing has approached Iran in recent years, with the cooperation of the two countries regularly Military exercises And signing a A 25 -year strategic partnership in economic, military and security cooperation In 2021.

Iran’s population is about 91 millionMore than 9.8 million people in Israel, along with abundant crude oil reserves, made it a natural partner in Belt and Road Initiative in ChinaWhich described the global Times, which is the status of the Beijing government, as a means of “confronting hegemony”.

China’s basic economic attention is to reach Iranian oil and the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important trade methods for global crude oil flows.

About 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, or five global consumption, flow across the strait in 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration. Half of the oil imports in Beijing moved through the main track – using a The solution system to overcome Western banksShipping services and transactions provided by the yuan to avoid the operation of the sanctions.

New Wang, a Chinese and strategic economist at Evercore ISI, said that China will remain “Iran’s hands in any case”, because of its limited impact on Israel and its strategic account on Washington’s intervention.

Wang added that Beijing is involved in a trade war with the United States and may find value in any chaos in the Middle East, which “will become a greater distraction for Washington.”

China has pledged to support Iran in “protecting its national sovereignty” shortly after Israel attacked it On June 12, which Aden Beijing As “a violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security and regional integrity.”

But despite this preliminary offer to support Iran, Beijing’s speech has turned to become more measure, less than condemning Israel’s military actions, however Focus on the brokerage dialogue and the ceasefire.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said to him Israeli isotope In a phone call, Israel’s strikes were “unacceptable”, but refrained from “condemnation” notes in the call.

On another sign of Beijing to contact its skin on Iran, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Monday that it is in the interest of the international community to maintain stability in the Persian Gulf and the surrounding waterways.

“It contains tensions on tensions and prevent the luster of conflict to the wider region – which may affect its economic and strategic interests, as it seeks to contain tensions on tensions and prevent the luster of conflict to the broader region – which may affect its economic interests, that the direct condemnation of Israel while it greatly avoids” the direct condemnation of Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel while Israel It is compatible with Iran, “as it seeks to” contain tensions and prevent the luster of conflict to the wider region – which may affect its economic and strategic interests. “

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday Call For Iran about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

While many expect that Beijing will do so completely, some have suggested that the siege on the choice point may be favorable for China, because it stands better to prepare the strike from the American and European Union, and that China can easily turn into other alternative oil sources.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, Initial oil sources in China Is Russia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iraq and Oman, although a large part of Malaysia’s exports is re -transferred or transferred from Iran.

“China will be happy to see a significant increase in oil prices if it shakes the stability of the United States and Europe,” said Robin Brooks, an older colleague at the Brookings Institute.

“China may not be angry to pay more against oil from other sources, if that means that the United States is suffering more,” said Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors.

On Sunday, the Iranian parliament supported the decision to close the strait, pending the final approval by the National Security Council. That sent oil futures More than 2 % higher in the early hours of Asia. Our raw wti More than 2 % rose to $ 75.22 a barrel, while the global standard Brent Nearly 2 % rose at $ 78.53 a barrel.

While the Chinese UN Ambassador Fu Kong had harsh words for the United States in A. United Nations Security Council meeting On Sunday, Fu also identified Israel and called for an immediate ceasefire and ending hostilities.

Although China appears to be stability in the Middle East, it may benefit from the US participation in the conflict.

Shuhazad Qazi, the managing director of the beige book, said that the American strikes against Iran “have handed over an important point of discussion: it is America, not China, which threatens the world order and peace.”

China may have hopes to work as a peacemaker, and based on the mediation of a peace agreement between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2023. Beijing praised reconciliation as a victory over Chinese diplomacy and a sign that Beijing has appeared as a major mediator of power in the Middle East.

Analysts said Israel is likely to be skeptical in China’s neutrality as a mediator because of Iran’s alignment and participation with Hamas, Iran’s ally, who attacked Israel in October 2023, and the possibility of angering the United States.

“China has not offered the mediation in the conflict or Iran has offered any material support. Shi wants, and it will, its cake and eat it too.”