When the Supreme Leader emerges, he’ll be leading a changed Iran

After spending nearly two weeks in a secret hideout somewhere in Iran during his country’s war with Israel, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameneni, 86, may want to use the opportunity to stop the shooting.

It is believed to be deceitful, Incommunicado, to fear the assassination by Israel. Even senior government officials seemed to have no contact with him.

It will be well recommended to be careful, despite the fragile ceasefire that mediated US President Donald Trump and the Emir of Qatar. Although President Trump told Israel not to kill Iran’s supreme leader, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not rule out.

When it arises – or in reality – it comes out of hiding, he will see a natural view of death and destruction. There is no doubt that he still appears on state TV claiming victory in the conflict. He will draw to restore his image. But he will face new facts – even a new era.

The war has left the country greatly and it is a decreasing man.

During the war, Israel soon took control of many Iranian airspace, and attacked its military infrastructure. Senior leaders of the Revolutionary Guards and the army were killed quickly.

The extent of damage to the army remains unclear and disputed, but the repeated bombings of the army and the Revolutionary Guards indicate a significant deterioration in Iranian military power. Honorary has always consumed a huge amount of nation’s resources.

The known Iranian nuclear facilities that have gained the country for nearly two decades of US sanctions and international sanctions, at an estimated cost of hundreds of billions of dollars, are now affected by air strikes, although the full range of this was difficult to evaluate. What was everything, many ask.

A large number of Iranians will be uniquely retained from Ayatollah Khounai, who first became a leader in 1989, responsible for the position of Iran in a collision with Israel and the United States, which ultimately brought a great ruin to his country and his people.

They will blame him for following the ideological goal of destroying Israel – which is not supported by many Iranians. They will blame him for what they consider foolish – his belief that achieving the nuclear situation will make his system invincible. The sanctions have paralyzed the Iranian economy, which reduced the major oil exporters to a poor and struggling shadow of its previous self.

“It is difficult to estimate the time when the Iranian regime can survive under this tremendous pressure, but this seems to be the beginning of the end,” says Professor Lina Khatib, a visitor to Harvard University.

“Ali Khouna another” leader “in the” supreme “Islamic Republic will become the full sense of the word.

There was blowing the opposition on top. At the height of the war, one of the semi -official Iranian news agencies reported that some of the best former regime personalities urged the most calm religious scholars in the country in the holy city of Qom, which is separate from the Ayatollah, to intervene and make a change in leadership.

“There will be an account,” according to Professor Ali Ansari, the founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University.

“It is quite clear that there are huge differences inside driving, and there is also a great misery between ordinary people.”

During the past two weeks, many Iranians have struggled with conflicting feelings of the need to defend their country in exchange for their deep hatred of the regime. They gathered on the country, not by going out to defend the regime, but to take care of each other. There were reports on vast solidarity and rapprochement.

People in cities and villages opened outside the urban areas their doors to those who fled the bombing in their cities, and the owners of stores who carried out the basic goods that they operated, and the neighbors hit each other’s doors to ask them whether they needed anything.

But many people were also aware that Israel may have been looking for a change in the regime in Iran. System change is what many Iranians want. They may draw the line on changing the designed system and imposing it by foreign powers.

During nearly 40 years of his rule, Ayatollah Khayni, one of the longest turbidity in the world, dismantled any opposition in the country. Political leaders opposed to either prison or fled from the country. Abroad, opposition figures were unable to formulate a position uniting the opposition to the regime.

They were ineffective in creating any organized form capable of assuming it inside the country if the opportunity appeared.

Within two weeks of war, when the regime’s collapse could be a possibility, if the war continued unabated, many believed that the possible scenario for the next day was not the seizure of the opposition, but the country’s descent to chaos and purchase.

Professor Khatib says: “The Iranian regime is unlikely to be prolonged through the local opposition. The regime is still strong at home and will enhance local persecution to crush the opposition,” says Professor Khatib.

The Iranians are now afraid of more disruption by the regime. At least six people have been executed in the past two weeks since the beginning of the war with Israel on charges of spying for Israel. The authorities say they arrested about 700 people on this charge.

An Iranian BBC Persian BBC told what she feared more than the death and destruction of the war is a system that afflicted and insulted its anger against its people.

Professor Ansari says: “If the system is unable to provide basic goods and services, then there will be increased anger and frustration,” says Professor Ansari.

“I see it as a fun operation. I don’t necessarily see it, in the popular sense, it will be rooted even after a long period of the end of the bombing.”

Few people in Iran believe that the ceasefire on Monday will continue – and many believe that Israel has not yet ended over the sky over Iran.

The only thing that seems to have survived the destruction is Iranian ballistic missile silos that Israel has found it difficult to determine because it is placed in the tunnels under the mountains throughout the country.

The Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, said that Israel launched its opening attack on Iran, knowing that “Iran possesses about 2,500 missiles from the surface to the surface.” The missiles launched by Iran caused a great death and destruction in Israel.

Israel will be concerned about the 1500 possible possible in the hands of the Iranian side.

There is also a serious concern in Tel Aviv, Washington and other western and regional capitals that Iran is still in a hurry to build a nuclear bomb, which continued to reject it.

Although Iranian nuclear facilities have definitely suffered, and may have become useless during the Israeli and United States bombings, Iran said it has moved its stock of highly enriched uranium to a safe secret place.

This inventory of 60 % uranium, if fertilized to 90 %, is a relatively easy step, is enough for about nine bombs, according to experts. Immediately before the war began, Iran announced that it had built another new secret facility for enrichment that was scheduled to come soon.

The Iranian Parliament voted to reduce its cooperation sharply with the United Nations Atomic Supervision Authority, the IAEA Agency. This still requires approval, but if Iran passes, Iran will be one step away from leaving the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which is NPT-where the militants support the supreme leader of Iran’s pressure to build a bomb.

Ayatollah may be my cloud now, confident that his regime has survived, only. But at the age of 86 and patients, he also knows that his own days may be numbered, and he may want to ensure the continuity of the regime with an organizer of power – to another cleric or even a command council.

However, the remaining senior leaders of the Revolutionary Guards who were loyal to the supreme leader may seek to use power behind the scenes.

The highest credit image: Pacific Press via Getty

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