What we know as markets brace for turmoil
2026-03-01 09:48:39
JERUSALEM – FEBRUARY 28: People take cover as Iran launches missiles and drones toward Israel following the US-Israeli attacks, in Jerusalem on February 28, 2026.
Mustafa Al-Kharouf | Anatolia | Getty Images
Launched by the United States and Israel The most aggressive attack ever Iranian targets over the weekend killed the Islamic State’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, thrusting the region into a widening conflict with Tehran retaliating with air strikes across the Middle East.
Here’s what we know so far as investors brace for the impacts when markets open after the weekend.
The killing of the Iranian Supreme Leader
Iranian official media announced Khamenei died at dawn on Sunday.
Trump, who is taking the biggest foreign policy gamble of his presidency ahead of the midterm elections in November, It’s called murder “The only great opportunity for the Iranian people to restore their country.”
Trump also warned on Truth Social that “violent and targeted bombing will continue without interruption all week, or as long as necessary to achieve our goal of peace across the Middle East and throughout the world!”
The president said on Saturday that the aggressive strikes were aimed at ending an operation The Iranian threat has been ongoing for decades And to ensure that it is unable to develop a nuclear weapon.
Launching missiles at the Gulf countries
Iran They responded with an unprecedented wave of strikes Throughout the Middle East, targeting several neighboring countries that host US military bases, in addition to Israel.
In Israel, sirens and cell phone warnings sent people rushing to air raid shelters when Iran launched a series of missile attacks, most of which were intercepted.
Explosions were reported in the UAE, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, with footage showing people fleeing a smoke-filled corridor at Dubai International Airport.
Drone strikes caused damage and casualties at Dubai International Airport and Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi.
This comes after the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced, in A statement She said on Saturday that the country “will not hesitate” in its response to the US-led strikes. Separately, a spokesman for the Iranian Armed Forces said It is said He warned that “we will teach Israel and the United States a lesson that they have never experienced before in their history.”
In Sunday’s Social Truth post, meanwhile, Trump Tehran warned against any further retaliatory actionHe threatened to “strike them with unprecedented force” if Iran continues to strike.
Market hedges
Investors are preparing for risk-off trades once markets reopen after the weekend, anticipating potential gains in so-called safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold, while stocks may decline.
Providing some indication of how markets are responding, oil-linked perpetual swap futures on cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid, which allows 24/7 trading, jumped nearly 5% to $71.7 per barrel, while gold contracts rose nearly 1.2% to $5,334 per ounce.
Bitcoin rocked in the hours immediately after the pounding began on Saturday before recouping some losses to end the day 1.8% higher at $66,725. The cryptocurrency fell to $66,325 as of 4:48 a.m. EST on Sunday.
Oil movements
Oil market participants were closely watching watch the conflict, This threatens to cause a major shock to oil supplies in the Middle East.
Bob McNally, a former White House energy adviser to former President George W. Bush, predicted future crude oil prices could rise by $5 to $7 per barrel when trading begins at 6pm EST on Sunday, if there is no sign of de-escalation.
Brent crude
Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and could threaten to make the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea – unsafe for commercial traffic. This could lead to oil prices rising above $100 per barrel, McNally said.
More than 14 million barrels per day will flow through the strait in 2025, or a third of the world’s total seaborne crude oil exports. About three-quarters of those barrels went to China, India, Japan and South Korea. China, the second largest economy in the world, receives half of its crude oil imports from the Strait.
Investors are reevaluating risks
For markets, the key question is what comes next.
Investors were already underestimating geopolitical risks, Eric Robertson, head of global research at Standard Chartered, said in a note.
The US dollar is modestly weaker year to date, but the dispersion beneath the surface is telling: Commodity-linked currencies are outperforming, he said, suggesting markets are paying a price for exposure to scarce resources and terms-of-trade winners.
Ben Emmons of FedWatch Advisors said leadership strikes in Tehran raise the risk of regime change and leave an uncertain ending. He said markets could oscillate between risk aversion – if regime collapse removes the risk of an oil blockade or nuclear escalation – and continued risk aversion if the conflict continues and supply disruptions worsen.
The immediate pressure point may be energy. Analysts say the continued rise in crude oil prices will quickly impact inflation expectations and hit oil-importing Asian economies hard.
As trading resumes, how oil prices and the US dollar trade against Asian currencies will be the first real indication of how seriously this shock is being priced in.
Travel chaos
Airlines Hundreds of flights cancelled While dozens of others were rerouted mid-flight due to the closure of airspace over a large area of the Middle East. Some services have been temporarily suspended until at least the end of next week.
Travel chaos has spread to Brazil and Australia. The airspace closure also forced airlines to cancel flights that normally transit the region.
More than 1,800 flights in and out of Middle Eastern countries were canceled on Saturday, according to aviation data company Cirium, with another 1,400 flights in and out of the region canceled on Sunday.
Qatar Airways said it had temporarily suspended all flights, while Dubai-based Emirates Airlines said service at Dubai International Airport, one of the busiest airports in the world, had been halted.
— CNBC’s Spriha Srivastava, Spencer Kimball, Pippa Stevens and Leslie Joseph contributed to this story.
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