Ukrainians in war-ravaged Donbas weigh prospects of peace deal

Trains are no longer running to Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, part of the Donbas region claimed in its entirety by Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is another sign of steady Russian progress.

Instead, the final stop is now on the western side of the Donetsk border. This is where civilians and soldiers wait for a ride to relative safety – their train out of Dodge.

Putin has appeared more optimistic since the leak of US proposals to end the war, which are widely seen as being in line with his extremist demands. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said territory remains the most difficult issue facing US-led peace talks.

At the last stop on the line, Private Andrei and his girlfriend Polina part ways after spending a very short time together. Andrii has to return to the front and they don’t know when they will see each other again.

He laughs when I mention the peace talks, which saw Donald Trump’s envoys speaking to Ukrainian negotiators before heading to Moscow. He dismissed these talks as “gossip, just gossip.” He does not believe that the war will end soon.

There are also suspicions among other soldiers who took the train west for a short respite from the fighting. They take part of their 20 days vacation. Most of them look exhausted.

Russian forces now control about 85% of the Donbass region, which consists of Luhansk and Donetsk. They announced on Tuesday that they had taken control of the key strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. Ukraine said fighting was continuing in the city.

“Everyone is exhausted, everyone is mentally and physically tired,” Denis, who has served in the Ukrainian army for the past two years, told me.

Some of his companions had already fallen asleep. His unit is fighting in the besieged city of Kostyantinivka.

“It’s scary, really scary,” he says, describing the drones flying around “like flies.” But he made it clear that they are not ready to give up after sacrificing so much.

“No one will give Putin the Donbass,” he says. “No way, it’s our land.”

Giving up territory where at least a quarter of a million Ukrainians live – Donetsk’s “Fortress Belt” cities such as Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka – would be unacceptable to most Ukrainians.

Russia has spent more than a year trying to seize Pokrovsk, while Ukraine appears reluctant to hand over such important strategic centres.

But American officials believe that Ukraine is outnumbered and outgunned.

There has already been a mass exodus of civilians from Donbass. It is continuing with peace talks taking place. We witness the arrival of dozens, old and young, at a reception center located on the border in Lozova.

They took advantage of the dense fog to escape. Less chance of being targeted by drones. About 200 people arrive at this reception center every day. They got basic supplies and some money.

Yevgeny and his wife Marina have just arrived from Kramatorsk with their two children. There are “more drones now,” she told me. “It’s getting harder and harder to get out of the house,” she says. “Everything is dangerous.” “Even if you go to the store, you may not come back.”

The family plans to move to the capital, Kyiv. Yevni does not have much confidence in peace talks. “This side,” he says [Russia] You will not agree to our terms. We understand that nothing good will come of it.”

But others seem more willing to consider giving up their homeland forever in exchange for peace.

Oleksandr says it is too dangerous to survive. His children have already gone to Germany. While he describes Russia’s extreme demands as “possibly unacceptable,” he appears willing to consider some of what was included in the leaked peace plan – trading land for peace. The original version of the US draft stipulates that the areas of Donbas that are still under Ukrainian control are to be handed over de facto to Russia.

“I personally agree to these conditions,” he says.

Ena, who is eloping with her five children, also thinks it’s time to make a deal. She can no longer hide her children, aged between nine months and 12 years, from the dangers of living in Kramatorsk. I tried telling them that the explosions they heard while seeking shelter in their basement were just fireworks.

“The main thing is to have peace,” says Inna. When I asked her if that meant giving up her home forever, she replied: “In that case, yes.” They are already planning to rebuild their lives elsewhere.

Some soldiers sent to Donbas also vote with their feet. There have been nearly 300,000 desertions, or soldiers absent without official leave, since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion – and the numbers have risen dramatically over the past year.

One of them is Serhiy – not his real name. We met him in secret. His home has become his prison as he tries to escape arrest. Serhiy volunteered to fight at the beginning of the year, while most of the men in his unit were forcefully mobilized – “taken from the street.”

He says his unit was already underpowered when it was sent to the front, near Pokrovsk, and was not properly trained or equipped. “I ended up in a battalion where everything was a mess,” he says, although he still believes this was the exception rather than the rule.

Serhiy left the place in May after two of his friends were absent from work.

“I wouldn’t have gone if we had the right leadership and someone with experience in charge,” he says. “I came to serve, not to run.”

Serhiy is still thinking about his next step and the possibility of returning to the army. But he echoes recent American warnings that the possibilities of this war are stacked against Ukraine.

When asked if he thought Ukraine could win, he expressed doubts. “If you think logically, no. A country with a population of 140 million against us and 32 million – logically, this does not add anything.”

Additional reporting by Marianna Matviychuk