UK launches defense overhaul — but is it too little, too late?

British Prime Minister Kiir Starmer announced a comprehensive reform of the defense spending on Monday, warning in Britain that it is facing a “war in Europe.”

“We move on to prepare to combat war,” Starmer said, as the UK revealed that “strategic defense review” is increasingly on the continent.

UK defense plans include building 12 new nuclear -powered offensive submarines, an increase in drone manufacturing, missiles and ammunition, as well as Enhancing the capabilities of cyber war.

Starmer said that the UK defense spending will rise to 2.5 % of GDP (GDP) by 2027 and puts “ambition” to increase this to 3 % of GDP in the upcoming parliament – that is, by 2034 – “when economic and financial condition allows.” NATO estimates He suggested that the UK defense expenditures as a share of GDP amounted to 2.33 % in 2024, higher than the goal of the coalition that was determined in 2014.

The Prime Minister said that one of the UK’s priorities is to strengthen the NATO alliance, adding that the British defense policy “will always be NATO first.”

Nato wants 32 members Commitment to spend 5 % of GDP to defense The infrastructure related to security by 2032, is scheduled to press this goal when the following meets from 24 to 25 June.

Analysts and economists argue that, while UK defense plans It is welcome news at unconfirmed times, they may eventually prove that it is very small, very late – and it may be difficult to present, given the financial restrictions in the United Kingdom.

However, the defense expenditures have chosen sharply among NATO members since Trump was another in power. In 2018, at the height of the irritation of the White House leader with the military bloc, only six member states achieved the target 2 %, including the United States. Compare with 23 members in 2024, According to NATO data.

While some have greatly overcome this threshold – such as Poland, Estonia, the United States, Latvia and Greece – the main economic powers, including Canada, Espin and Italy, among the arrears without the threshold of contribution.

No member of NATO reached the target of spending by 5 % Trump or NATO Secretary -General Mark Retty suggested it.

Some NATO allies have already given a vibrant response to the target of defense spending by 2.5 % in the UK with the Minister of Defense in Lithuania – who spent an estimated 2.8 % of GDP in defense in 2024 – According to the BBC, the number was “old news”.

Starmer also refused to adhere to an explicit schedule for the date of increasing its defensive spending to 3 % in the next parliament (2029-2034), as BBC was told earlier on Monday that “he will not adhere to commitment to the exact history, so that I cannot be specifically from where the money comes, and how we can achieve this commitment.”

The European Space and Defense sector welcomed the spending plans, as the Stoxx 600 Aerospace and Defense Index rose 0.45 % on Monday.

But although “the spending plan is unambiguously positive for the sector … the influence will be gradual and income,” said Lorridana Mouhairimi, a stock analyst at Morningstar, on Monday.

She pointed out that although the UK’s defense plans “support the modernization of nuclear warheads, the expansion of the submarine fleet within the framework of the AUKUS program, the production of restricted ammunition and the enhancement of investment in the capabilities of electronic and long -term strikes”, they can still not lack the broader defense ambitions of Trump and Nato.

“While the UK government believes that these spending goals are sufficient to achieve national security goals, they may still be less than increasing expectations than NATO and the United States, as the Trump administration urges a faster to 3 % path by 2029.”

Meanwhile, defense experts argue that throwing more money in defense will not be transformed in itself.

“The goal of spending from 2.5 % of GDP is not so important that it really” transforming ” – at least, has not granted the current situation of the armed forces,” Matthew Saville, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal UN Services Institute (RUSI) He said in the analysis Before the review.

“To be transformed, you will need to reduce and reshape the armed forces by risk in some areas to transform others,” he pointed out.

He said that support, which amounts to several billion pounds per year, may be used for the first time to fill the gaps in ammunition and other weapons stocks, infrastructure and logistics, support for employee conditions, payment and employment.

He said that “the radical additions, instead of the increasing additions to the military capacity,” will require “some large options about early retirement of capabilities or discounts in numbers.”

“The defense was here before in terms of promising the new capabilities that the early loss of others is due to budget pressure.”