Two years on, will Israel and Hamas seize the chance to end the war?

After two years of war, there is an opportunity for an agreement to end the killing and destruction in Gaza and return the Israeli hostages, to live and die for their families.

It is an opportunity, but it is not certain that it will be seized by Hamas and Israel.

It is a bleak coincidence that the talks occurred exactly two years later that Hamas was shocked by the Israelis who are still sharp.

The October 7 attacks killed about 1,200 people, most of them Israeli civilians, and 251 who were eradicated as hostages. The Israelis estimate that 20 hostages are still alive and want to return the bodies of 28 others.

The devastating military response to Israel has destroyed most of Gaza and killed more than 66,000 Palestinians, most of whom are civilians, including more than 18,000 children.

The numbers come from the Ministry of Health, which is part of the remnants of the Hamas administration. Its statistics are usually considered reliable. A study in Lancet, the London -based medical magazine, indicated that it was less.

The Israelis and the Palestinians want the war to end. The Israelis wear war and opinion polls show that the majority wants a deal that restores the hostages and ends the war. Hundreds of thousands of reserve soldiers in the armed forces, the Israeli Defense Army want to return to their lives after several months in the active service.

More than two million Palestinians in Gaza in a humanitarian catastrophe, which occurred between the fire force of the Israeli army and hunger and in some areas a man -made famine that Israel’s restrictions on entry into the tape.

The Hamas version, which was able to attack Israel with a devastating force two years ago, was broken as a coherent military organization. Urban warfare has become an escalation of a rebellion against the IDF in the rubble.

Hamas wants to find a way to survive, although it has agreed to abandon the authority for Palestinian technocrats. He accepts that he will have to deliver or dismantle the remaining heavy weapons, but he wants to preserve enough fireworks to defend itself against the Palestinians who have wanted revenge for nearly two decades of brutal rule and Hamas attacks that it brought down.

It does not say this publicly, but the organization that still has followers and charters seeks to destroy Israel, you will also want to appear with enough left to rebuild its ability to upgrade its name, which is an abbreviation of the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Israel would like to dictate the conditions for Hamas surrender. But the fact that Hamas has a chance to negotiate seriously opens more capabilities than it appears just one month. This was when Israel tried and failed to kill Hamas in a series of strikes in a building in Doha, where they were discussing peace proposals from Donald Trump. Their main goal, the great leader Khalil Al -Hayya, leads the Hamas delegation in talks in the Sharm Sheikh Al -Ahmar resort. Ibn Al -Haya was among the dead, although the leaders fled their lives.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a different kind of staying in mind. He wants to preserve his authority, continue to postpone his trial for corruption, win the elections scheduled for next year, and not to go down in history as a leader responsible for the security mistakes that led to the bloodiest days of the Jews since the Nazi Holocaust.

To achieve this, it needs a reliable way to announce “complete victory”, a phrase that it used again and again. It has identified it as the return of the hostages, the destruction of Hamas and the mature of Gaza. If he cannot do this, this will not be sufficient for him to refer to the real damages that Israel caused to its enemies in Lebanon and Iran in the past two years.

Negotists will not meet Hamas and the Israelis face to face. Egyptian officials and Qataris will be the brokers, the Americans who will also be a major impact, and there may be a crucial effect.

The basis of the conversations is a 20 -point peace plan. What will not do, despite its publication on additional social media over permanent peace, is to end the long conflict between Israelis and Palestinians to control the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. It does not mention the future of the West Bank, and the other part of the land recognized by the United Kingdom and others as the state of Palestine.

High risks in Sharm El Sheikh. There is an opportunity to reach a ceasefire that can lead to the end of the most destructive and bloody war for more than a century of conflict between Arabs and Jews.

The first challenge is to determine the circumstances of the launch of Israeli hostages in exchange for the Palestinians who spend the penalty for life in Israeli prisons and the conqueror who have been detained without trial since the war began. This is not a simple task.

President Trump wants the results quickly. He wants to revive his ambition for the mediator in a big deal in the Middle East, in the middle of which it will be a rapprochement between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This cannot happen when Israel kills large numbers of Palestinian civilians in Gaza and imposes restrictions on humanitarian aid that causes great suffering, and when Hamas maintains the Israeli hostage. The Saudis have also made it clear in a series of general data that it could not happen also without a clear and irreversible path to an independent Palestinian state.

Trump has forced Netanyahu to participate in a document that includes a mysterious and unlimited signal to the possibility of Palestinian independence. In a statement after that, Netanyahu chose to ignore this by repeating his pledge that the Palestinians would not get a state. There is a lot in the Trump document that Israel wants in terms of ending the Hamas force and future governance in Gaza.

But Netanyahu used to get his own way of the oval office. Instead, Trump forced him to read an official apology to the Prime Minister of Qatar in the air strike that failed to scan Hamas leadership. Trump needs Qatar on board the plane to move forward in his ambitions to reshape the Middle East.

One of the questions is why Hamas is preparing to give up the hostages without a strict schedule for Israel to leave Gaza and end the war. One of the possibilities is that the Qataris convinced them that Trump will make sure that it happens if they give him the opportunity to demand victory by restoring all the hostages of Israel, living and death.

However, Trump continues to use the language that Netanyahu needs to the Israelis, such as his threat to Hamas if they reject the deal, and promised “full support” of Israel to move forward in destroying Hamas.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that it will only take a few days to work if it is dangerous. It will take longer to take out nuts and nails that will need to support a complex agreement. So far, all they have is the Trump frame.

Two years later, two years later, the long and non -Israeli conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians in the Gaza war exploded, it was a major challenge to end the killing and secure the near future for the Palestinians and the Israelis. The skilled diplomatic and long participation will require details, from which there is little in the Trump plan 20 points. Trying to find an accurate language that fills the gaps will provide many possible blocs.

Nobody has a higher opinion than Trump himself than his ability to make deals. In foreign policy, delivery has not yet been matched. Not a large number of wars settled. The accurate count of a number claims that he has ended according to how to tell him. Most of it was not finished from Trump from the Russia-Ukraine war in one day of taking office, he expected. But one of Trump’s skills, after age in real estate, is an innate instinct on how to put pressure to get what he wants.

Indirect conversations occur in Egypt because Donald Trump was able to pressure both sides. The enthusiasm threatening had an end to his plan was the easy part. American presidents led international pressure on Hamas since the group won the Palestinian elections in 2006 and used the power to take over Gaza from its Palestinian competitors, the following year.

There is a big difference between Donald Trump, Clinton, Obama and Biden presidents is that he returns more and more decisive in Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to manipulate him more than his democratic ancestors were ready or able to do it.

Trump took the qualification of Hamas “yes but” for his suggestion as a strong yes for peace. It was enough for him to advance. Axios reported the news service that when Netanyahu tried to persuade him that Hamas was playing for Trump’s response time, “Why are you very negative.”

Israel depends on the United States. The United States was a complete partner in the war. Without American help, Israel could not attack Gaza with this harsh and long force. Most of its weapons are provided by the United States, which also provides political and diplomatic protection, and have spent multiple decisions in the United Nations Security Council that were aimed at stopping Israel.

Joe Biden, who described himself as an Irish Zionist, did not use the financial lever that comes from Israel’s dependence on the United States. Donald Trump puts his plans for America first, and used America’s force underlying Israel to obtain Netanyahu to bend to his will, at least when it comes to joining the talks. It remains to see if this pressure is continuous. Trump changes his opinion.

Both Hamas and Israeli delegations have strong critics at home who want the war to continue. Hamas BBC sources told that the military leaders who are still in Gaza are ready to fight it to the end and took the largest possible number of Israelis with them. Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition depends on the support of super national extremists who believed that they were close to their dream of expelling the Palestinians in Gaza and replacing them with the Jewish settlers.

If the conversations fail in Egypt, both final are possible.