Trump said beef, egg, chicken prices are falling: What the data shows

president Donald Trump He said in his book State of the Union address Tuesday night He said his administration’s policies “quickly end” the high prices of some foods, including proteins in the American diet, such as beef, chicken and eggs.

However, the prices of chicken and beef increased Since Trump took office in January 2025.

Egg prices They have already declined significantly — but, like beef prices, have been influenced more by supply-and-demand factors specific to those markets than by federal policy, according to agricultural economists.

Price movements also come with the Trump administration He said It was “ending the war on protein.” Announcing the new US Nutritional Guidelines That focuses on protein, full-fat dairy products, and vegetables.

“President Trump is right: Inflation has slowed, and prices for many daily necessities have declined or are on track,” White House spokesman Khush Desai said in an email statement. “The entire administration remains laser-focused on providing economic relief to the American people.”

Trump said during his speech State of the Union address That beef prices “have begun to decline significantly.”

Federal data show that beef prices have begun to decline in some cases, but remain near multi-year record levels.

Cost of ground beef $6.75 per poundon average, in January — an all-time high, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices have 22% increase over the past year, from $5.55 per pound in January 2025, when Trump began his second term. This is the fastest annual inflation rate since June 2020, during Trump’s first term.

Prices for other cuts of beef also rose, according to federal data.

For example, the price of uncooked beef steak was $12.30 per poundOn average, in January, down slightly from the all-time high of $12.51 a pound in December, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Prices increased by 13% During the past year.

Cost of roasting uncooked beef $8.82 per poundon average, in January, down from the record high of $9.29 per pound in November. Average prices increased by 14% Last year.

Beef prices “remain significantly elevated” over the past year, said Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

The recent drop in prices is “pretty bad consolation for most people,” Swanson said.

There was 27.6 million cows In the United States as of January 1, according to the USDA. That’s the lowest supply of these cows — destined for the beef market — since 1961, according to historical USDA data tracked by Martinez.

There were about 86.2 million U.S. livestock overall — including other types such as those used to produce milk — as of Jan. 1, the lowest number since 1951, according to USDA data.

Many factors have contributed to the staggering decline in the U.S. cattle herd, Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, a trade group, wrote last October.

The ongoing drought has caused pasture conditions for cows to “deteriorate,” Nelson wrote.

Good pasture conditions lower the costs of raising livestock, while poor conditions force farmers and ranchers to ship hay from other parts of the country, contributing to higher costs of raising and feeding livestock, he said. As a result, he added, many farmers sold female cows instead of keeping them to produce calves.

“It’s hard to produce more beef when you lack the livestock to do it,” said Amy Smith, a food economist at Advanced Economic Solutions.

Raising cows for the beef market also takes a long time, about three years, she added.

Meanwhile, economists said demand for beef among American households rose even as prices rose.

Fresh beef retail demand index in 2025 It reached its highest levels Martinez said of USDA data since at least 2000.

“COVID-19 and the whole pandemic has created a lot of new demand,” Martinez said. “Everyone has become champions at backyard barbecue. … There has been this change in the taste and preference of beef that we have never seen before.”

Economists said they do not believe beef prices will continue to decline in the near term due to supply and demand dynamics in the beef market.

The Trump administration has It sought to enhance the offer Through policies that stimulate beef imports from countries such as Argentina. Imports They were already at record levels In 2025, according to the Farm Bureau’s Nelson.

Such market interventions have the “unintended consequence” of lowering the prices paid to U.S. ranchers, Nelson wrote.

Increased imports “would add another barrier to livestock herd development and potentially stimulate further contraction in livestock stocks,” he wrote. “This could lead to higher beef prices and increased U.S. reliance on imported beef to meet domestic demand.”

This number is in line with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which shows that the average price of a dozen large, first-class eggs fell about 59% from March 2025 to March 2025. $2.58 per dozen in January From a record high of $6.23 per dozen.

Prices decreased by 48% As of January 2025, when they were $4.95 per dozen.

Much of this decline is a retracement to more typical post-A prices Supply shock caused by historic outbreaks of avian influenzaAccording to economists.

“We are seeing significant declines [in price] “From staggering heights,” said Swanson of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

“Highly contagious avian influenza”, more commonly known as avian influenza, Pushing egg prices to staggering levels Economists said late 2024 and early 2025.

The disease is highly contagious and fatal to birds, including chickens on commercial egg farms. Economists said that to prevent the spread of the disease, farmers should kill their entire herds if they detect an infection.

In all, tens of millions of egg-laying chickens died. For example, more than 38 million Birds that lay eggs commercially will die out in 2024, according to… USDA data Followed by the University of Arkansas. More than 20 million more He died in early 2025.

Since 2022, when the outbreak began, the United States has lost more than 140 million egg-laying hens, said Smith of Advanced Economic Solutions.

“You can’t recover quickly from that,” she said.

Although the disease has not gone away, so far it has not been “as impactful” in late 2025 and into 2026, Smith said.

She added that consumer demand is also likely to decline as prices rise, helping to cushion prices at grocery stores. She said prices could rise over the next few weeks as the Easter holiday approaches, which is like the Super Bowl for the egg industry.

However, average chicken prices have risen by about 1% over the past year, according to the EU report Consumer price index. Consumers paid $4.17 per pound of boneless chicken breasts in January, on average, up from $3.97 a pound a year earlier, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Bird flu It didn’t have much effect Economists said that raising chickens for meat consumption as well as raising chickens to produce eggs.