Trump running low on options in Venezuela military standoff with Maduro

Absence of direct military action, Mr. President Donald Trump According to experts, his options are low amid his confrontation with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Strikes near Venezuelan waters targeting drug traffickers, sanctions and a $50 million reward have so far failed to force Maduro, who the United States has designated as the leader of the Tren de Aragua drug cartel, from power.

After repeated threats, adversaries may now view the lack of direct military action as a sign of weakness on the part of the United States, but Maduro is in an equally difficult position, as his military capabilities pale in comparison to those of Trump, and experts say that China and Russia lack the will to directly challenge the United States in the Western Hemisphere.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking: Trump’s unprecedented military buildup in the Caribbean — including sending the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the region — is draining resources from other theaters.

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Navy deploys USS Gerald R. Ford and robotic ships for counter-narcotics missions in Latin America. (Jonathan Klein/AFP via Getty Images)

Katherine Thompson, a senior fellow in defense and foreign policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, said there were very few tools left at Trump’s disposal to oust Maduro, aside from a targeted strike against the Venezuelan leader or a ground invasion.

While the White House has not directly said it is seeking regime change, recent media reports indicate that Trump and Maduro have talked about the Venezuelan leader leaving office.

Thompson noted that previous efforts to pressure Maduro, including Imposing sanctions on Venezuela And supporting opposition leader Juan Guaido during Trump’s first term was unsuccessful.

“There doesn’t seem to be — outside of the military option — anything new on the table that hasn’t already been tried,” Thompson said.

However, Thompson doubted the success of military action.

“If the offer is on the table from Trump administration “Are we potentially going to launch an invasion unless you talk to us? That might be a strong enough diplomatic and strategic move to get Maduro to surrender,” Thompson said. “But we don’t seem to be picking up many signals from the Maduro regime that that would be palatable.”

Meanwhile, Thompson said adversaries like Russia and China may be confused as to why the Trump administration would focus on the Maduro regime, which does not so much endanger U.S. interests as other actors, when the Trump administration has embraced the “America First” slogan.

“I imagine for them, it’s probably a little puzzling, if they’re looking at it through a realistic lens, why this administration would prioritize overthrowing the Maduro regime, rather than conflicts in other theaters,” Thompson said.

US strikes on drug boats near Venezuelan waters may be aimed at eliminating Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. (@realDonaldTrump/Truth Social; Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)

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As a result, the Trump administration’s Venezuela-focused actions are likely to leave some “confusion” on the part of Russia and China about how serious the United States is about putting American interests first, Thompson said.

She added that China may wonder whether the U.S Shifting resources, such as routing The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford The Caribbean could provide it with an opportunity to invade Taiwan if the United States is linked to its operations in Venezuela. Several US officials have said they believe China will be able to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Do Russia and China support Venezuela?

While there may be greater interest on the part of China in taking action within its own theater, experts agreed that neither Russia nor China would be likely to actually intervene and support Venezuela in the event of an escalation of military operations between the United States and Caracas – even though Moscow and Beijing are strategic allies of Venezuela.

Some analysts said Maduro would find himself largely isolated if Trump launched military strikes against Venezuela. Russia, still preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, is unlikely to offer anything beyond denunciation of the US action, they said, and China, despite years of deep economic engagement with Caracas, is also expected to stop militarily intervening.

From Moscow’s perspective, there is ideological and strategic discomfort with American intervention, but little desire or ability to confront it.

“Moscow opposes unilateral US military intervention, especially when it aims to overthrow a friendly authoritarian regime,” said John Hardy, a Russian military analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). “However, Russia lacks the will and capacity to stop US intervention in this part of the world if Trump decides to go down this path.”

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Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on September 2, 2025. (China Daily via Reuters)

Hardy said that Russia is carefully monitoring the internal debate in Washington.

“Analysts in Moscow interpret the internal debate in Washington over Venezuela as evidence that although Republican views on foreign policy have changed, the more traditional and hard-line camp still maintains influence,” Hardy said. “This whole incident may also reinforce Russian views of Trump as rash and unpredictable, though I suspect Moscow is happy to see Trump prioritizing the Western Hemisphere over other regions more important to Russian interests.”

China’s likely response will mirror its recent behavior in other conflicts. Beijing has significant financial interests in Venezuela, but has shown little willingness to risk confrontation with the United States, especially in the Western Hemisphere.

Jack Burnham, a China analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Maduro should take into account how China acted during the 12-Day War, when Iran was hit by intense strikes led by the United States and Israel.

“If Maduro was expecting support from China, his expectations should have been corrected by Tehran’s recent experience under fire,” Burnham said. “Although China provided basic war-related materials to Iran before the 12-Day War, once the conflict escalated, Beijing backed off, content to stand on the sidelines and make statements.”

The same pattern is likely to apply now, Burnham said: “If US military action accelerates, wait for Beijing to engage in a war of words instead of sending much-needed supplies to Caracas.”

Trump’s anti-drug campaign

The Trump administration has strengthened its military presence off the coast of Venezuela and adopted a tough approach to confront the flow of drugs into the United States. For example, drug cartel groups such as Tren de Aragua, Sinaloa and others were designated as foreign terrorist organizations in February.

The Trump administration has repeatedly said that it does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate head of state, but rather as the leader of a drug cartel. In August, the Trump administration raised the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, describing him as “one of the world’s largest drug traffickers.”

Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro waves a sword said to belong to independence hero Simón Bolívar during a civil-military event at the Military Academy in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, November 25, 2025. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)

Trump confirmed on Sunday that he spoke with Maduro on the phone last week, after that New York Times She stated that the two spoke, but they refused to provide details about what they discussed. However, the Miami Herald reported on Sunday Trump gave Maduro an ultimatumThis ensures the safety of the Venezuelan leader and his family – if he resigns immediately.

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The White House did not offer comment when asked whether the Trump administration was seeking regime change, and whether Maduro had received any incentives to step down. However, officials said all options are on the table to mitigate the flow of drugs into the United States

“President Trump was clear in his message to Maduro: Stop sending drugs and criminals into our country,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement to Fox News Digital on Tuesday. He added, “The president is ready to use every element of American power to prevent the flow of drugs into our country.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital on the Miami Herald report.

In addition, New York Post The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that US officials were discussing the possibility of sending Maduro to Qatar, although officials familiar with Qatar’s role in the negotiations said Maduro would not go there. It is unclear where Maduro will flee to, and no country has confirmed that it will accept him.

Trump’s alleged negotiations with Maduro come as strikes in the Caribbean face increasing scrutiny from the legal community and lawmakers.

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A Venezuelan ship destroyed during a US military strike off Venezuela on September 2, 2025. (@realDonaldTrump via Truth Social)

While lawmakers questioned the legality of the strikes from the beginning, the attacks came under renewed scrutiny after the Washington Post reported on Friday that the Secretary of War Pete Hegseth He verbally ordered the killing of everyone on the alleged drug boat in the September 2 operation. The Washington Post reported that a second strike was carried out to remove the remaining survivors on the boat.

On Monday, the White House confirmed that a second raid had taken place, but disputed that Hegseth had given an initial order to ensure all aboard were killed when specifically asked about Hegseth’s instructions.

The White House also said Monday that Hegseth authorized Admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley to carry out the strikes, and that Bradley ordered and directed the second strike.

At the time of the September 2 strike, Bradley was commander of the Joint Special Operations Command, which falls under the US Special Operations Command. He is now head of US Special Operations Command.

According to Hegseth, carrying out a subsequent strike on the alleged drug boat was the right decision.

“Admiral Bradley made the right decision to finally sink the boat and eliminate the threat,” Hegseth said Tuesday.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth arrives for a news conference at the Pentagon, June 22, 2025, in Arlington, Virginia. (Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)

In total, the Trump administration carried out more than 20 strikes against alleged drug boats in Latin American waters, increasing its force. Military presence in the Caribbean To align with Trump’s goal of eliminating drugs entering the United States

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The last confirmed strike occurred on November 15. Although strikes in the Caribbean have been halted because of the difficulty of finding alleged drug boats, the Trump administration’s anti-drug campaign will continue, Hegseth said Tuesday.

“We just started hitting the drug boats and putting the drug terrorists at the bottom of the ocean because they were poisoning the American people,” Hegseth said Tuesday.