Trump-Modi ties hit rock bottom with new tariffs on India over Russian oil

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first world leaders to visit Washington for a week after US President Donald Trump began his second term.

Moody described his “great friend” because the two countries were a situation An ambitious goal to double their trade To $ 500 billion by 2030.

But after less than six months, the relationship appears to have hit the bottom of the rocks.

Trump has now imposed a total of 50 % on a tariff on Goods imported from IndiaAnd its previous threat to impose an additional 10 % of the country’s membership in the BRICS group, which includes China, Russia and South Africa as founding members, still exists.

Initially, a 25 % tariff was imposed, but it declared an additional 25 % on Wednesday as a punishment for Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil – a move called the Indian government “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.”

Only last week, Trump described the Indian economy as “dead”.

This is an amazing reflection in a relationship that has moved from strength to strength over the past two decades, thanks to the efforts made by successive governments in both countries, supporting the two parties and rapprochement in global issues.

In the past few weeks, there have been positive signals from Washington and Delhi about an imminent commercial deal. Now this looks increasingly difficult, if not impossible.

So what is the mistake that happened?

It seems that a series of mistakes, photography and local political pressure have been cut off.

Delhi has been restricted in her response to Tirades to Trump, in the hope that diplomacy will eventually help secure a commercial deal. But in the White House Trump, there are no guarantees.

Trump commented on many issues that Delhi considers red lines. The largest of them is Trump’s over and over again India and its competitor Pakistan is equally.

the The US President hosted the Commander of the Pakistani army, Asim Monir At the White House, weeks after the bitter struggle between competitors in South Asia.

Then he signed a commercial deal with Pakistan, where he gave the country a preferential tariff of 19 %, as well as a deal to explore the country’s oil reserves. He said so much that one day, Pakistan may sell oil to India.

Another fixed, Delhi’s fixed -bound is the frequent confirmation of the United States that the United States has mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

India sees its conflict with Pakistan on Kashmir as its internal relationship and has always rejected the mediation of the third party on this issue. Most world leaders were sensitive to Delhi’s position, including Trump in his first time as president.

But this is no longer the case. The US president doubled his demand even after Moody told the Indian Parliament that “there is no state in the ceasefire.”

Moody did not mention Trump or the United States, but local political pressure is escalating on him not “bending” to the White House.

“The fact that this happens against the backdrop of the heavy and high -end of the United States with Islamabad immediately after India’s struggle Pakistan, the United States is more invasive for Delhi and the broader Indian audience. This all indicates fears of some of them in India that the United States cannot be trusted as a Washington -based Washington partner.

He adds that some anger in Delhi “may be” luggage in the era of the Cold War in the foreground, “but” this time around it intensifies due to developments in the actual time as well. “

The Moody government is flourishing on national issues, so its supporters are likely to expect a firm response to the United States.

It is a Catch -22 position – Delhi still wants to get a deal but also does not want to encounter it under Trump’s pressure.

Delhi appears to be gradually launched self -control. In response to Washington’s anger because India’s purchase of Russian oil, Delhi pledged to take “all necessary measures to” protect “its national interests and economic security.

But the question is the reason why Trump, who loved the generosity of hospitality in India and described it as a great country earlier, has gone to a reliable ally.

Some analysts see his pressure tactics to secure a deal believed to be working with the United States.

“I think what he is doing is part of the negotiation strategy,” says Gitindra Nath Maysara, a difficult personality. His style may not be diplomatic, but he is looking for results.

A source in the Indian government said that Delhi made many concessions to Washington, including any tariff for industrial goods, and reducing definitions of cars on cars and alcohol. A deal to allow Starlink from Elon Musk in India.

But Washington wanted to reach the agricultural and dairy sectors in India to reduce the $ 45 billion trade deficit, which is run by Delhi.

But these sectors are a red line for Moody or, for this issue, that is, an Indian prime minister. Agricultural sectors and relevant sectors represent more than 45 % of employment in India and Successive governments have heavily protected farmers.

Mr. Kugelman believes that the surrender of Washington’s demands is not an option to India.

“India first needs to reduce general anger and clarify it will not give in pressure. This is very important for local political reasons,” he says.

It is also believed that Trump’s insistence that India stops importing oil from Moscow is more related to him The increasing frustration Russian President Vladimir Putin must.

“We see Trump continues to increase pressure tactics, in an attempt to reduce Russia from the most important oil buyers by punishing them to do business with Moscow,” he says.

But Delhi cannot stop importing oil from Russia overnight.

India is already the third largest consumer in the world in raw and may exceed China in the highest center by 2030, as it is likely to increase its demand for energy with the high -growing middle class, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Russia now represents more than 30 % of total oil imports in India, which is a large leap of less than 1 % in 2021-22.

Many people in the West see that India indirectly funds the Moscow war, but Delhi denies this, on the pretext that buying Russian oil with a discount ensures energy security for millions of citizens.

India also sees Russia as its ally “in all weather conditions.” Moscow usually comes to save Delhi during previous crises and still has support among the wider Indian public.

Moscow is also the largest arms resource in Delhi, although its share in the defense import portfolio in India decreased to 36 % between 2020-25 from 55 % between 2016 and 2020, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

This was largely due to the strengthening of local manufacturing Delhi and the purchase of more from the United States, France and Israel.

But Russia’s role in the defense strategy in India cannot be exaggerated. This is something the West understood and did not challenge – until Trump decided to get out of the applicable standards.

Until now, India has been successfully walking in a diplomatic rope with the West overlooking its strong relations with Russia.

The United States has long looked at India as sad against China’s dominance in the India and Pacific region, which guaranteed the support of the two parties in Delhi in Washington.

Moscow (even though it was sometimes evenly) has not interacted harshly with its ally to photograph close relations with Washington and other Western countries.

But now Trump has challenged this position. How Delhi interacts will decide the future of the relationship between India and the United States.

India has been measured in its response yet, but it does not completely retreat. In her statement, she said that the United States encouraged it to continue to buy oil from Russia to stabilize the global energy market.

It also mentioned that its targeting was unjustified as the European Union continued to buy energy, fertilizers, mining and chemical products from Russia.

While things look bad, some analysts say everything is not lost. India and the United States have close ties in many sectors, which cannot be uprooted overnight.

The two countries are closely cooperating in the sectors of information technology, education and defense.

Several large local information technology companies have invested heavily in the United States, and have most large silicon Valley companies in India.

“I think the basics of the relationship are not weak. It is a paradox that today Trump has announced a 25 % tariff and unlimited sanctions, India and the United States cooperated in a strategic area when they are An Indian satellite missile has been jointly developed to spaceMr. Maysara says.

It will be interesting to see how India interacts with Trump’s sharp speech.

“Trump is an undifvising transaction and commercial in his approach to foreign policy. He has no work about publishing these potential harsh tactics against a close partner like India,” says Kojman.

But he adds that there is a lot of baked confidence in the partnership, given the work he went to during the past two decades.

“So what may be restored. But because of the extent of the current annoyance, it may take a long time.”

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