Trump agenda could grind to a halt in Congress with 1-seat House majority

With less than nine months before a bruising political battle in the November midterm elections, the reality of a one-seat majority is weighing on the GOP in the House.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA. -So, President Donald Trump — He faced back-to-back losses on the House floor last week after a small group of GOP insurgents joined Democrats in an attempt to limit Trump’s unilateral tariff power.

It’s part of a growing trend that comes with razor-thin House majorities, moderates choosing between appealing to their battleground voters and following the president in a year where history dictates the opposing party will fare better in the next election.

“Getting things done in Washington can be hard enough,” Doug Hay, a veteran GOP strategist, told Fox News Digital. “Add that to a very slim majority and an abbreviated election-year legislative calendar, and it’s hard to see much happening at the legislative level during the rest of the year.”

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House Speaker Mike Johnson, accompanied by President Donald Trump, speaks to members of the media as they leave the House Republicans meeting at the U.S. Capitol on May 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)

Last Tuesday, House GOP leaders tried to insert language into the matter An irrelevant procedural vote It aims to prevent Democrats from forcing consideration of a bill aimed at limiting Trump’s ability to impose tariffs on Canada without congressional approval.

But that failed, after three Republicans joined Democrats in thwarting this procedural vote: Representatives Kevin Kelly, Republican of California, Don Bacon, Republican of Nebraska, and Thomas Massie, Republican of Kentucky.

“I think it was not unexpected, and we certainly have to find a new course to chart now.” Republican House of Representatives She granted anonymity to speak freely on Fox News Digital.

“This is going to change the dynamics of the kind of legislation we’re going to see, the kind of policy positions Democrats are going to do over the next nine months. So we’ve got to come up with a better strategy.”

But Republicans who spoke with Fox News Digital did not largely blame Johnson, saying he was doing the best he could with the circumstances facing him. Instead, much of the frustration was directed at fellow GOP lawmakers who defected.

The move not only paved the way for a vote on Trump’s tariffs on Canada, but opened the door to allowing Democrats to force a vote on tariffs targeting other countries as well.

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A second Republican House member said: “A lot of people were disappointed with the way things turned out, with representatives voting no” rather than leading the House.

They noted that the next day would see a vote on Trump’s own tariffs — a politically difficult situation for people in vulnerable seats.

“I get the general idea about tariffs,” the second-ranking Republican said. “This is not the way to vote no and put a lot of our moderates at risk, and that’s exactly what happened.”

A third House Republican said there is “frustration that they’re not playing team ball like they used to, and we need them to do that.”

Rep. Thomas Massie arrives for a House vote on a funding bill to reopen the government on February 3, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Kevin Deitch/Getty Images)

But not everyone agreed. “I actually like it when they put bills on the floor, even if they don’t have the votes… It gives the American people a chance to see where their representatives stand,” Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz., a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, told Fox News Digital. “It gives the American people a chance to see where their representatives stand. A lot of times, the calculation is that we won’t get them to the floor if we don’t think they have the votes.”

“A lot of the American people don’t even know where their representatives stand, because this whole place is designed to protect members from getting votes,” Crane said.

He added of Johnson’s leadership: “I think it’s one of the hardest jobs you can do. I’ve criticized the speaker in the past, but what he’s working with, I think he’s doing a good job.”

The Democrats succeeded in this Force a vote to terminate Trump A state of emergency on the northern border the next day, which if passed in the Senate and signed into law, would effectively undo the tariffs he had imposed on Canada.

Three other Republicans — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., Jeff Hurd, R-Colorado, and Dan Newhouse, R-Washington. — joined the original trio in voting to pass the measure, even in spite of it Trump threatens political “consequences.” For those who disagreed.

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Trump would almost certainly veto the resolution if it reached his desk, but it is an example of a situation that is increasingly likely to occur as the midterm elections approach.

For example, Bacon and Newhouse will not run for re-election. Fitzpatrick and Hurd are running in battleground districts where their independence from the party line could be crucial to their survival — and to Republicans’ overall chances of holding on to the House.

Trump is already targeting Massie with a primary challenge, and Kelly has yet to announce his plans for November after California Democrats severely disadvantaged him with a new congressional map.

The GOP majority in the House of Representatives shrank to just one vote as Johnson was sworn into the new House of Representatives

“I think you’ll see some moderate Republicans trying to distinguish themselves as independent voters or independent thinkers…and this is the way to do it,” John Fehery of EFB Advocacy, who served as press secretary for former Republican House Speaker Dennis J. Hastert, told Fox News Digital.

“And tariffs are not uniformly popular among the Republican caucus. I mean, most Republicans probably want to vote with these people. But they don’t want to undermine the president while he’s negotiating.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks during a news conference in Washington, D.C. on November 20, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Republicans are currently dealing with a one-seat majority until mid-March, when a special election for the seat vacated by former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., will likely send another GOP lawmaker into the House.

But the race in April for a blue-leaning seat to replace New Jersey Gov. Mickey Sherrill could cut the margin again. Republicans are unlikely to see relief until August, when a special election is held to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Calif.

Feehery said Democrats’ unwillingness to work with Trump will likely prevent much of the president’s agenda from succeeding in Congress this year.

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“It doesn’t seem to me that Democrats have any interest in giving Trump any kind of legislative victory, and that makes it very difficult. I mean, [House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.]“He doesn’t really want to work with Trump at all, so he will greatly diminish Republicans’ ability to get much done for the rest of the year,” he said.

“The other situation is that the Senate won’t get 60 votes on a lot of things, so that makes the agenda itself very thin.”