Trade, supply chain damage will remain

president Donald Trump Declare Trade War with China “Done” Wednesday, while Trade Minister Howard Lootnick said that the definitions of Chinese goods will be Closed at the current 55 % Without additional increases. Even if the battlefield with the largest American enemy in the Trump trade war is real, the damage to the American supply chain, the US consumer and the economy will remain, as executive officials in the logistics and retail service industry say.

The latest headlines in the trade war comes amid a slowdown in requests with the end of the front loading period for 2025 in early 2025, and companies through the economy are a potential slowdown in the United States

“I think there is an opportunity to deteriorate real numbers soon,” said Jimmy Damon, CEO of JPMorgan, the country’s largest bank, at the Morgan Stanley event on Tuesday, before the latest Trump administration’s comments.

Alan Bayer, CEO of OL USA, said the current customs tariff with 55 % on Chinese goods will put hundreds, if not thousands, from companies and eventually in danger. “There is a few companies that have a pricing power to accommodate definitions or raise prices to make up for the impact,” said Bayer. “In the end, the consumer pays.”

White House officials told CNBC that the 55 % tariff mentioned in Trump’s social media publication comes from the accumulation of Chinese definitions. This is the minimum rate of American trucks.

American importers told CNBC that the average is still very high to the resumption of full requests.

“The customs tariff will lead to 55 % of China to the instability of consumer goods that bring goods from China,” said Bruce Caminstein, a member of NY Angels, founder and former CEO of Casabella Cleaning. “President Trump recently said that he does not want to make shirts. Why does he do this then? Does he want to make a spoon? I don’t think so.”

Delay National inflation data On Wednesday showed a smaller increase in prices, although it is expected to fluctuate with uncertainty about the remaining tariff policies.

Kaminstein said that most companies are working on a total margin of 40 % -60 %, which will either lead to a significant increase in prices or a significant reduction in expenses to survive, adding pressure on the cash flow of these companies.

“A 55 % tariff has been reported to our largest US clothes and shoes, which is already high above MFN and Article 301 is not a victory for America,” said Steve Lamar, CEO of the American clothing and shoes Association. “We are closely watching for more details, but the truth is: all the clothes and shoes that are sold in the United States are now subject to high tariff rates. These costs will hit American families strongly, especially as they are preparing to shop to school and the holiday season. New commercial deals cannot come to a sufficiently low tariff.”

The Chinese government did not confirm Trump’s remarks after saying on Tuesday. Agreed on the conditions of trade “Geneva consensus” I worked earlier this year with the United States Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday about the deal “subject to the final approval” of Trump and the Chinese president Xi Jinping.

Also Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Payette Proposal To extend trade tariffs, it stops with countries that negotiate in good faith.

The induction uncertainty also weighs the European Union’s exports heading to the United States on Wednesday that a trade agreement for the European Union is probably possible, and this is partly due to the need to deal with a bloc of countries instead of one government.

Consumer request, continuing recession continues while the customs tariff stops

The cargo holders, which focused on trade between the United States and the European Union, said they were concerned.

Andrew Abbott, CEO of Atlantic Container Liner, a surrounding carrier specializing in the trade corridor in Europe/United States, told CNBC that exports and imports were good, but worried that a large correction coming due to the induction and continuous fears of stagnation.

Abbott said: “A traditional trade witnessed an increase in the volume of goods in both directions during the past month, with an average of 15 % compared to last year.” “There are an increasing number of customers in importing in the United States who express fears of sales decrease in sales due to the possible stagnation of the United States in the second half, so this weighs intensity in people’s minds.”

As a result, ABBOTT said, many companies choose the “WAIT and See” strategy before making any deal.

The main titles and concerns come in increasing the expected requests in requests in July and August, and the peak season to reach the shopping season on holidays. But logistics experts say that there will be no storms at the Kofid level in the American ports.

“The companies have withdrawn the exit from the definition Crosshairs in March, April and May,” said Dean Crook, the main analyst of Dat Freight & Analytics. “The distribution of warehouse has increased at the time. We are now in the peak season now.”

The first customers who have benefited from the customs tariff window are those who have time shipping shipments, such as medical supplies, high -value goods, such as auto parts, luxury furniture and fashion, according to Mike Short, Global Toversing for Ch Robinson.

Noah Hoffman, Vice President of Retamentals, told CNBC that when he was visiting one of the largest retail clients last week, “I was only surprised to see Jack-O’-Lantern’s dinner in the distribution center,” CNBC told CNBC that when one of the largest retail clients was visiting last week, “I was only surprised to see Jack-O’-Lantern’s dinner in the distribution center,” CNBC told CNBC.

“We are four months outside and are already transporting Halloween elements to be ready to deliver the store the next day,” Hoffman said. “We see the same thing in our retail unification centers, as we wander around seasonal shipments and holidays from many retail suppliers.”

He said: “This is a mixture of transport stocks last year and charging the front charging in the first quarter to avoid the highest definitions that were coming in April.”

“It is damaged” in truck transport

After the United States agreed to a temporary stop in the trade war with China, plans for shipping, which will lead to a “crowded period for four weeks this summer,” said. But “truck transport companies are concerned about the rest of the year.” “The second quarter is usually an important preparation for the rest of the year, which leads to high prices. This means so far, that they are concerned that they will play to catch up with the rest of the year.”

Hoffman said that in the current training suspension window, there is still time to bring goods from China before the 90 -day window was closed in mid -August. “We may move some of those shipping in late June to July. So shoppers may have a return to school to choose from, but at this point, it is possible that skeletons in the dark and fake vampire teeth will make,” he said.

In particular, the truck transport industry faces a variety of challenges. While imports contribute to about 10 % of the demand for truck transport, local manufacturing is traditionally the main engine, but the demand has decreased. The product season, another industry driver, adds to the opposite winds due to the cold spring temperatures in California and the low demand for consumer.

“I think the damage has happened this year,” Crook said. “Transportation companies will fight for recovery this year. The supply chain will not recover until these commercial deals are done. When you lose confidence, how can you make commercial decisions when you can back down in a tweet? You have to expect the worst scenario, and anything better than this is the upward trend. I don’t see how the market recovers.”

The flowing effect of low charging volumes in the size of the media can be seen, a decrease of 7.42 % on an annual basis, the size of the truck load, a decrease of 13.37 % on an annual basis. Both railways and trucks make their profits to transport containers.

The Ocean Teu index, which represents the size of the ocean container reservations, appears 2025 and leaves 2024 slightly on an annual basis. Historically, the size of the goods was a tool to predict the demand for consumers in the United States.

The expectations of the National Retail Union, based on requests and container analysis for the holiday season in June, decreased by 14 % on an annual basis. John Gold, Vice President of the Series of Supply and Customs Policy at NRF, said once the deal is signed, the tariff for China will be very important to work decisions.

“We are looking to get more information from the administration,” Gold said. “However, approval of a 55 % tariff maintains the current IEPA tariff, fentanel and Article 301 is still very high, especially for small companies that are still struggling with the current tariffs.”

Manufacturing from Asia has decreased to its lowest level in 17 months, according to the last indication of the global supply chain fluctuations index, which is leading in tracking the terms of demand, deficiency, transportation costs, stocks, and accumulation, based on a monthly survey of 27,000 companies.

There is another warning of indicators of low manufacturing orders and smaller holiday stocks is empty ocean charging containers.

The shipping index in June in June showed that the issues of the return of the empty container continued at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports, the most crowded in the country. The report said: “The accumulation of empty containers continues despite the high voids issued; there are still challenges of crowding,” the report said.

CH Robinson said it is expected to continue with softer conditions in La and Long Beach ports, as the size of the month increased over a month in early June, but it is still less than this time last year.

According to the analysis of the port data in North America from logistical services, the stations that treat containers in ports at the national level operate with a capacity of 60 % to 75 %.

The export market in the United States will also continue to try difficult conditions due to limited ships after decline in sailing by ocean shipping companies.

At New York Port, there is an excess of empty containers that is the result of the New York Port stations that restrict returns and reduce some export reservations to free the bowl space and improve the flow. “It hindered the continuous sailing sailing the ability of transport companies to re -put the equipment efficiently,” said Robinson. “With the limited ship calls and escalating accumulation, this imbalance is expected to continue in the coming weeks.”

In the Gulf Coast ports, demands related to tariffs and sailing dramatically reduced the size of the containers received. “As a result, the exporters must expect to tighten the availability of containers, especially in the internal railway slopes and the US Gulf Coast ports such as Houston, starting in July or August,” said Chopinson.

During the roaming epidemic, the transfer of empty containers to the precedence of China was on American exports. Manufacturers in China and Asia needed these containers so that they can fill them with products quickly to keep pace with the massive demand for consumers in the United States.

“With a significant decrease in ships calling La/LB due to the customs tariff activity, we see significant increases in an empty container outside the stations,” said Paul Brashir, Vice President of the World Supply Series in Logistics Services. “It is extremely difficult to find sites to end the blanks, in addition, many ocean transport companies have carried out arduous termination policies,” he said unprecedented since the post -kofide era.

Abbott said that the cessation of the customs tariff in the UK resulted in the restoration of more “natural” size in this market. Fear of stopping the customs tariffs of the European Union, which ends in July, has increased the shipments of the European Union, as the manufacturers of shelves have not been stored a little more in the event that a UK -type deal for the European Union did not agree, and to deal with a tariff of steel and aluminum, in a way that prefers greater trade.

But it is possible to see continuous uncertainty in the exports of higher countries to the United States

Lear-leaving container sizes-20-foot equivalent unit-Italy has decreased by 15 % on an annual basis. China decreased by 11 % on an annual basis, while South Korea decreased by 9 %. Vietnam and India, both of which are beneficiaries of the Chinese supply chain strategy, increase by 21 % and 13 %, respectively.

In the time of travel time and the deadlines for trade stopping, American importers do not have only one week to put charging orders in the ocean from the European Union to reach their products to the United States before the deadline to stop the customs tariff.

Details of China must be placed by the end of June to overcome the deadline to stop the customs tariff.