Thailand could face more chaos after prime minister’s removal

More political and economic uncertainty, and even a coup, may be on the horizon for Thailand After removing For Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Friday.

It was rejected on Friday because of the violation of ethics, After hanging it In July, after a phone call leaked between her and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.

The phone call revealed that it criticized a Thai military commander overseeing a border dispute with Cambodia while it appears to be satisfied with the powerful man Kamboudi.

Fighting erupted between Thailand and Cambodia In late July, although the ceasefire reached five days in the conflict.

Nitisiri, which is also part of the PHEU party, He nominated Prime Minister Post in 2019 and 2023After he was the Minister of Justice in Thailand in 2013.

The other possibility is a “non -museum” coalition formed by another party, such as the Peshomahae party, depends on the support of the People’s Party – previously the movement of movement.

But he added that this “never works in almost any country, and may not work in Thailand.”

Early Monday, Reuters I mentioned that the people’s party It was scheduled to meet with a report who would return to form the next government.

It was the Bhumjaithai party Leave The ruling Paetongtarn Alliance on June 18, after the disclosure of the invitation with Hun Sen. Leader Bhumjaithai Anutin Charnvirakul I reported Reuters To obtain a shuttle between the parties, and make pledges such as calling the elections within four months.

However, analysts from Nomura said that Charveracol has a lower chance of obtaining the spot of Prime Minister from Nitisiri, noting that the Bhumjaithai party has about 70 seats in Parliament from Pheu Thai.

Analysts said that if Nitisiri is elected, the current situation of the PT government will remain in place, but they also highlighted the danger of calling early elections in early 2026, because the ruling coalition gets a relatively small majority amid the increasing political uncertainty.

“However, in our opinion, Nomura is always a solution and political uncertainty may be prolonged,” Nomura added.

the 2006 acquired Paetongtarn Thaksin Shinawatra, and 2014 coup Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of Thaksin.

Cornelzic CNBC told that if Parliament collapses, sudden elections will be called. The army does not want that, nor the king, in his opinion.

He said: “In early free elections, move forward, the progressive party devoted to military reform and ownership reform will have a very good chance to win an absolute majority in Parliament and choose the Prime Minister. This will be a disaster for the army and the palace.”

The Land party presented He won most seats In the House of Representatives in the elections in the 2023 general elections, but it was unable to form a government.

The party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in August 2024, on the basis that it had violated the constitution before Amending proposal Thailand’s law is not Majesty.

“If Parliament falls, the army may feel that there is no choice but a coup,” Coranezek said.

He supports his view by a December 2024 paper By the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington -based research center, which said that the Thai military and ownership elites in Thailand view electoral democracy as a threat to its control.

“They see themselves as guardians of national stability, and they often look at the populist rural voters to a large extent that they are not ready for enlightened political participation.”

“Repeated military coups have fueled the dismantling of democratic governments whenever they defy the current situation, allowing elites to protect their strength and form their policies in their favor,” he added.

Talk to CNBC’sSquawk box asiaOn Monday, Rao said that Thailand could suffer from slowing down in the second half of the year.

NOMURA declaations expects GDP growth by 1.8 %, saying that the effect of customs tariffs in the second half will lead to poor negative reactions between narrow financial conditions and weak economic activity.

The number 1.8 % is in line with The expected World Bank expectations In July. The World Bank sharply reduced growth forecast in Thailand completely from 2025 to 1.8 %, a decrease from 2.9 %, as its projection reduced 2026 to 1.7 % from 2.7 %. Thailand’s economy grew by 2.5 % in 2024.

Political uncertainty and growth in growth led to the Somura analysts expected to reduce sovereign credit rating in the upcoming quarters.

In April, Moody’s reviewed Expectations for Thailand to negative from a stableA sign of increased political uncertainty and weakness in continuous growth. Moody’s Svereign Credit Class Call to Thailand is currently standing in Baa1.