Tanzania’s election feels like a coronation not a contest for President Samia Suluhu Hassan

With no heavy weight With opposition candidates winning the right to compete in Wednesday’s election, many Tanzanians feel the vote is less like a contest and more like the coronation of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, as she contests her first presidential election.

The 65-year-old became the East African nation’s first female head of state following the death of current President John Magufuli in 2021. He was admired on the one hand for his sincere campaign to root out corruption, but criticized on the other for his authoritarian crackdown on the opposition and his controversial stance on the Covid pandemic.

President Samia, who was Vice-President, seemed like a breath of fresh air – and in her warmest and friendliest manner, she initiated reforms that seemed to represent a radical departure from the policies of her predecessor.

Its four policies – “Reconciliation, Resilience, Reform and Reconstruction” – reopened Tanzania to foreign investors, restored relations with donors, and calmed the IMF and World Bank.

“It has made a difference, as the lost relationship between Tanzania and international organizations such as the World Bank has been restored,” political analyst Mohamed Issa told the BBC.

But over the past two years or so, the political space has shrunk dramatically – and the targeting of government critics and opposition voices is said to be now more harsh than it ever was under Magufuli, with regular kidnappings and killings now reported.

Issa said: “Samia came with a conciliatory tone, but now she has become bold and is making difficult decisions that many did not expect.”

“It is now widely blamed for such things as kidnappings, killings, suppression of dissent and other security-related issues.”

This is reflected in reports by Freedom House, a US-based democracy and human rights advocacy group, which rated Tanzania as “partly free” in 2020 and “not free” last year.

The government did not comment on these accusations.

The CCM has won every election since the reintroduction of multiparty democracy in 1992, but campaigns are usually lively with robust debate between rival parties.

While the Electoral Commission allowed 17 presidential candidates to run this time, the main opposition party, Chadema, was banned from running along with its leader, Tundu Lissu, who is currently prime minister. On trial for treason.

He was calling for electoral reforms before his arrest last April, and the party is now urging its supporters to boycott the elections.

His deputy, John Hitchie He was also arrested last week – He told the BBC just before his arrest that the so-called reforms launched by President Samia were hollow: “Yes, marches were allowed again, but today Chadema cannot carry out his mandate because the promises were false.”

Meanwhile, presidential candidate Lohana Mbina, of the second-largest opposition party, ACT Wazalendo, has been disqualified twice.

He was able to be renominated by the Supreme Court after it was blocked due to a procedural matter – but when the Attorney General appealed last month, the Electoral Commission decided to uphold the disqualification.

This leaves smaller opposition parties like Shoma and the United Civic Front in the race, but in reality there is no chance of preventing Samia from winning her first personal term.

“Ruling party control, opposition exclusion and institutional bias undermine the credibility of elections,” political analyst Nicodemus Mendy said in a recent report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). “Limited civic space and low voter participation further weaken inclusivity.”

This has left some potential voters, like Godfrey Lusana, a Dar es Salaam resident, feeling desperate.

He told the BBC: “We don’t have elections without a strong opposition. The electoral system is not independent. We already know who will win. I can’t waste time voting.” “If the Electoral Commission were truly independent, I would have voted.”

This is in stark contrast to the vocal crackdown on the semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar in Tanzania – where the president is originally from Samia.

Islanders elect their regional president and incumbent CCM’s Hussein Mwinyi is seeking another term, but faces stiff competition from ACT-Wazalendo’s Usman Masoud – who has been serving as his deputy running the unit.

During the election campaign on the mainland, President Samia built on the initial praise she received for her maternal approach – seeking to rule through dialogue rather than decree.

This earned her the nickname “Mama Samia” – and in her rallies she promised to bring widespread development through improved infrastructure, health and education.

Many women, especially those living in rural communities, see her as a stabilizing force.

Quinn Kastorik, a first-time voter from the northern city of Tanga, told the BBC: “She brings dignity, and we young women look up to her. We feel her presence as president and it gives us confidence that we can be relied upon in our communities now and in the future.”

But some urban women, like Selina Ponciana, who will vote for the first time in Dar es Salaam, are more ambiguous: “Leadership is not just about dialect.

“I think the president has a job to do, first regarding unemployment. She has supported some but many still need help,” she said.

Another young woman in Morogoro, near Dar es Salaam, said she supported the president but refused to reveal her name to the BBC in case she faced a backlash from her contemporaries.

She said: “Samia made us believe that women are capable of leadership. I would like to say more, but many young people do not talk about it positively.”

Young people make up the majority of Tanzania’s 37.7 million registered voters, and some are angry at the president’s silence on issues such as horrific kidnappings.

While some credit President Samia with bringing economic stability, in some quarters there is nostalgia for Magufuli in light of increasing reports of corruption.

Its recent tougher approach may be due to several issues.

In a traditionally male-dominated society, she had problems asserting her authority. At recent rallies, she reminded voters who was the leader: “Don’t forget that I am the commander of the defense forces.”

She may also feel undermined by her colleagues. Within the CCM, there was some opposition to the fact that she became the party’s undisputed presidential candidate.

One of the senior party members who criticized her automatic nomination – Humphry Bolebole – He has since been kidnapped under mysterious circumstances.

There is also a suggestion that she has in effect become a pawn of a powerful network of business tycoons and other influential supporters of the CCM, known colloquially as Mtandao, Mende said in his ISS report.

“internal [CCM] The party’s democracy was stifled by a coordinated move to make President Samia the sole candidate. While this has deepened divisions within the party, the façade of unity is presented to the public.”

It is believed that Magufuli refused to take orders from Mtandaw, preferring to stick to his anti-corruption agenda.

Mr Mendy warns that all of this has contributed to a widespread sense of fear in the East African country. With media self-censorship and political discourse diminished, public debate has retreated to private conversations and social media.

Analysts warn that such a disconnect, especially among young people, could hollow out Tanzania’s democracy even further – and create future problems for President Samia if there is not a large turnout and if protests begin.

For Tito Magoti, a young lawyer and political activist, the demands remain simple.

“We want a free Tanzania where anyone has freedom of expression,” he told the BBC.

“Freedom of movement and freedom to do anything they want.”