Sudan in danger of self-destructing as conflict and famine reign

Sudan’s war is on a strategic, bound. Each side is based on a new attack, a new delivery of weapons, and a new political alliance, but it cannot gain a decisive feature.

The losers are the Sudanese people. Every month there is more hungry, displaced, despair.

The Sudanese Armed Forces announced the restoration of central Khartoum in March.

She broadcasts pictures of her leader, General Abdul -Fateh Al -Bayran, walking through The ruins of the Palace of the RepublicThe RSF, which was controlled by the RSF, since the early days of the war in April 2023.

The army deployed newly obtained weapons from Egypt, Turkey and other Middle East countries, including Qatar and Iran. But his attack quickly stopped.

RSF, headed by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti”, responded with a devastating drone on Port Sudan, the temporary capital of the military government and also the main entry point for humanitarian assistance.

These were long-term advanced drones, which the United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates) accuses of providing them with a accusation that the United Arab Emirates rejects, along with well documented reports that they were supporting RSF during the 27-month-long conflict.

RSF also expanded operations to southern Khartoum.

Hemedti concluded a deal with Abdulaziz Al -Hilo, the commander of the veteran rebels of the People’s Liberation Army, which controls the Nuba Mountains near the border with South Sudan.

Their forces combined may be able to reach the border with Ethiopia, hoping to open new display methods.

Meanwhile, RSF was besieging the North Darfur capital, the Chen, which was defended by an alliance of former rebels in Darfurian, known as the joint forces allied with the army.

Most of the fighters are ethnic Zaghawa, who were in a fierce struggle with Arab groups that form the essence of RSF.

A month after a month of siege, the bombing and wild attacks created a famine between the population, with the people of the camp displaced in Zamzam the worst.

RSF and allied Arab militias have a terrifying record of massacre, rape and ethnic cleansing. Human rights organizations accused it Collective genocide against the people of Masalit in West Darfur.

Zagawa’s societies fear that if the joint forces are defeated, they will suffer from my brutal revenge at the hands of RSF.

Pressing the El Fasher grows. Last week, RSF seized the desert garrison on the border with Libya held by the joint forces.

The army accused the forces loyal to the powerful Libyan man, General Khalifa Haftar, who controls the east of the country and is also benefiting from the support of the Emirati, of joining the attack.

Civilians Sudan, who were able six years ago to achieve an extraordinary achievement The overthrow of the leader for a long time, Omar Al -Bashaer, through non -violent protestsIn a state of chaos.

Various combinations are aligned with Borhan, with Hemedti, or trying to participate in a neutral position. They are all active on social media, polarized, highly sorted and retailer.

The neighborhood committees that were the driving force of the civil revolution clinging to life.

Most of them have kept their political heads, with a focus instead on basic humanitarian activities. Relief workers known as “Response Rooms for Emergency Cases” realize that they are the most efficient channel for life -saving help.

But many of them lost their funding When the administration of US President Donald Trump closed the US Agency for International Development, other donors did not penetrate the violation.

Both the army and RSF see any form of civil activity as a threat.

They break, arrest, torture and kill national relief workers and human rights activists.

There is no reliable peace process.

The head of the United Nations diplomats appointed to Sudan, former Algerian Prime Minister Ramaan Lamara, formulated a peace plan that was based on the assumption that the army would achieve a military victory.

All that will be left to negotiate is RSF disarmament and rebuild the country. This is completely unrealistic.

Promhan has a great diplomatic advantage on Hemedti because the United Nations has recognized the military aspect as the government of Sudan, even when it did not control the national capital.

Hemedti’s attempt to launch a parallel management of the vast RSF lands not acquired.

Foreign ministers at a conference in London in AprilWhich was hosted by British Foreign Secretary David Lami, failed to agree on a road to peace. The conference chairs had to settle to show a familiar land.

On this occasion, as before, progress was banned because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were unable to agree.

Diplomats admit that the Sudan war is an African problem that needs an Arab solution.

The peace route in Khartoum extends through Abu Dhabi, his leadership and Cairo.

As for Egypt, the big question is whether Pairhan is able to move away from the Islamists Sudan.

In the era of Bashir, the Islamic movement was 30 years ago, and it established a huge and well -funded organization, still exists.

The Islamists mobilized the combat brigades that were the key to the last army’s victory in Khartoum.

Egypt’s president, Abdel Fahia Al -Sisi, supports and wants to collide with the Islamists, but he knows that he cannot push the Sudanese general away.

This question takes additional importance with Israel’s attack on Iran and the fear of Islamists that they are facing an irreversible defeat.

Another big question is whether the United Arab Emirates will back down from Hemedti’s support.

After RSF lost Khartoum, some were hoping that Abu Dhabi would search for a compromise – but within weeks, RSF was deploying drones that appeared to have come from the United Arab Emirates.

The United Arab Emirates also faces strategic challenges, because it is strange in the Arab world in its agreement with Israel.

No one wants to see Sudan divided. But the reality of the war indicates an actual division between the warring camps bitterly.

Meanwhile, the largest and deepest human emergency in the world is getting worse without end on the horizon.

More than 45 million people from Sudan were displaced. Almost a million in famine.

Both sides continue to restrict the access of relief agencies to hunger. The United Nations call was funded for $ 4.2 billion (3 billion pounds) for only 13.3 % basic assistance in late May.

On the global level and among the namarin in the Arab world, Sudan is not a priority, no one, and it is an orphan in a famous region.

It is a country that can still be multilateral organizations – the United Nations and the African Union – related.

They can remind all their obligations to human rights and human life, and that it is in the interest of anyone to see the disaster of Sudan continues to appear.

The long Sudanese people are certainly worth this amount of mercy.

Alex de Wal is the Executive Director of the World Peace Corporation at the Fletcher College of Law and Diplomacy at the University of Tats in the United States.