South Korea’s new president has a Trump-shaped crisis to avert

The new president of South Korea, Lee Jay Meongj, won a stormy victory, but the honeymoon will hardly continue a day.

The former opposition leader cannot enjoy a two -month transition period that is usually provided to new leaders, so that they can build their team and reduce their vision of the country.

Instead, he immediately enters his position, to fill the opening left by the former president’s dismissal, Yoon Sok, who tried last December and failed to introduce the country under combat law.

In the election of me, with nearly 50 % of the votes, the South Koreans strongly rejected the military dictatorship that was forced to them almost. Lee carried a promise that he would enhance democracy in South Korea and unify the country, after a turbulent six months.

But that will have to wait. First, it has a crisis in the shape of Donald Trump to avoid.

In the coming months, Trump has the power to destabilize the economy, security of South Korea and its volatile relationship with North Korea.

The southern Koreans felt dismay when Trump slapped a 25 % tariff on all Korean imports in April, after they already struck the country with aggressive definitions in its basic industries – steel and cars. They assumed that being military allies for a long time from the Korean War days, and that a free trade agreement with the United States would spare them.

“If the customs duties are injured” it can lead to an economic crisis, “said Moon Chung.

Before Trump’s ads, the South Korean economy was already slowing. The chaos of customary rulings is more legitimate. Then, in the first quarter of this year, I contracted. The reform of this was the first to voter, even above the reform of the besieged democracy.

But without a president, the talks with Trump were hanging. It cannot be postponed anymore.

There is much more than South Korea’s economy at stake in these negotiations.

The United States currently guarantees the security of South Korea, through its promise to defend traditional and nuclear weapons, if its attack by its nuclear armed neighbor, North Korea. As part of this deal, there are 28,500 American soldiers stationed in the country.

However, Trump has made it clear that he is not planning to distinguish between trade and security when negotiating with South Korea, indicating that Seoul does not attract weight in any of the two fields.

In a post on the social truth platform in April, Trump said that during the initial tariff talks with South Korea, “discussed the payment for the large time of the military protection that we offer,” describing it as “one beautiful and effective shopping.”

This approach makes Seoul to weak uniquely.

Evans River, a former American diplomat based in Seoul, fears a crisis. “For the first time in our life, we have an American president who does not feel a moral and strategic commitment to Korea.”

During his first term as president, Trump asked about the value of making the American forces concentrated in Korea and threatened to withdraw it unless Seoul was paid more to get it. It seems likely that he will demand more money this time.

Seoul may not want to pay more, but it can bear it. The biggest problem is that Trump’s accounts, and his Ministry of Defense’s accounts appear to have changed. This is no longer only about money. Washington’s top priority now in Asia is not only North Korea from attacking the south, but also contains Chinese military ambitions in the region and against Taiwan.

Last year, Elberbridge Colby, a senior US defense official, said that South Korea will have to bear a “tremendous responsibility for its self -defense against North Korea”, so that the United States is ready to fight China.

One of the options is that the forces stationed here would turn their concentration into China’s restriction. last, Two defense officials described it last monthIt is that thousands of soldiers will be completely removed from the peninsula and re -spread it, and that the Seoul Army will also have to play a role in the deterrent of Beijing.

This was unable to put South Korea in a dangerous military predicament, but it will also create a diplomatic introduction.

President Lee, who was historically skeptical in the Korea alliance with the United States, wants to use his presidency to improve relations with China, the strong and commercial neighbor in South Korea. It has been mentioned several times that South Korea should stay outside the conflict between China and Taiwan.

He said during a televised discussion last month: “We must keep our distance from an emergency in China Taiwan. We can agree with both.”

Political Counselor, Mr. Moon, who has one day held the position of National Security Adviser, reiterated me fears for me. He said: “We are concerned about giving up America, but at the same time we are concerned that we are detained in the American strategy to contain and surround China,” he said. “If the United States threatens us, we can allow [the forces] Go “, he said.

For Mr. River, a former American diplomat, this mixture of Lee, Trump and China threatens to create the “ideal storm”. “The two leaders may find themselves on very different pages and this can be a recipe for a problematic relationship. If this is playing, this will undermine peace and stability in northeastern Asia.”

In Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un will undoubtedly monitor, keen to exploit the changing land. The nuclear weapons program is more dangerous than ever, and no one or no one was able to persuade him to threaten – including Donald Trump, who, during his first term, was the first American president to meet at all with a North Korean leader.

Since his return to Office, Trump indicated that he wants to resume talks with Kim, who ended without agreement in 2019. In Seoul, there is real concern that the couple may force this time a very bad deal for South Korea.

Fear is that Trump will take an “America first” approach, and asks Kim to stop producing his transnational ballistic ballistic missiles that threaten the mainland of the United States, without treating short -term nuclear weapons referred to in Seoul. On the other hand, Kim can demand a high price.

Kim has a much larger luxury than he did in 2019. He has more nuclear warheads, his weapons are more advanced, and the sanctions that were supposed to pressure his system have collapsed, due to Vladimir Putin. Russian leader Kim provides economic and military support for North Korea’s assistance in fighting the war in Ukraine.

This gives Kim the cover to submit bolder requests to the United States. Trump can be asked to accept North Korea as a nuclear weapon country, and agrees to a deal that would reduce the number of Pyongyang weapons instead of getting rid of them completely. There are likely to be other requests from US requests to remove some of the security provided by South Korea, including forces.

“North Korea is in the driver’s seat now. The only curve is the amount of risks that President Trump will risk,” said Sydney Celller, who participated in the 2019 negotiations on the American side. “There may be a kind of withdrawal of the forces [included in a deal] Really not that is far. “

Mr. Siller stressed that the United States “will not leave South Korea in dust,” but advised the new president of South Korea to “establish a relationship with Trump early”, and they are clear that they expect to be part of any operation, if the talks are fulfilled.

Mr. River added, saying that the new president should move quickly on all fronts, on the pretext that the first home duty of me must reach a list of 10 reasons that make South Korea a partner that is indispensable and why the US dollar is spent well; The reasons that can persuade Trump skeptical and transactions.

One in South Korea in South Korea hopes to play it is the ingenuity of shipbuilding. It builds more ships more than any other bar in China, which is now the world of dominant ships in the world and home to the largest naval fleet. This is a frightening possibility for the United States whose industry and the marine decrease.

Last month, I visited the pioneering shipyard in South Korea in Ulsan on the southern coast – the largest in the world – where Hyundai Heavy Industries is 40-50 new ships per year, including marine destroyers. Strong cranes fraught with each other of metal, creating ships the size of small villages.

Seoul hopes to be able to use this experience to build, repair and maintain the US military ships, and in this process Washington convinces it that it is a valuable partner.

“The difficulties of building American ships affect their national security,” said Jeongu Maan, head of the ship unit strategy in Hyundai. “This is one of the most powerful cards that we have to negotiate.”

In his campaign for the president, Lee Jay Meong announced that he did not want to rush into any agreements with Trump. Now in his position, he can find himself quickly without this luxury.