Russia’s war against Ukraine puts women off having children

Four years of war between Russia and Ukraine have begun to take their toll on the demographics of both countries, as the conflict prevents – or prevents – women from starting or expanding their families.

While the effects of this widespread reluctance to have children may not be immediately apparent, a declining birth rate could have far-reaching consequences for future economies and societies.

Since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, Ukraine’s fertility rate — the average number of births per woman — has declined, exacerbated by war, the loss of partners and spouses in combat, family separation and mass migration.

In 2021, Ukraine’s total fertility rate was 1.22 but this has since fallen to 1.00 in 2025, According to United Nations population data. Some were martyred A more serious scalewith Ukraine’s First Lady, Olena Zelenska, who warned in December that the country’s fertility rate had fallen to 0.8-0.9 children per womanWar and insecurity across Ukraine have caused this “serious deterioration.”

For any society to be able to replace itself from generation to generation, without relying on migration, it is necessary for a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.

Russia also experienced a long-term downward trend in its fertility rate, which was exacerbated by the war. In 2021, Russia’s fertility rate was 1.51, but by 2025, it had fallen to 1.37 children per woman, down from 1.4 recorded the previous year.

But it seems that four years of war played a big role in this Deter or prevent women in Ukraine from having childrenWhile in Russia, women appear resistant to repeated calls from the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin to have larger families.

Low birth rates pose major problems for countries, as they have indirect effects on the economy and society, as fewer births mean fewer workers in the labor force in the future, as well as lower productivity and economic growth.

This means lower tax revenues for governments and increased pressure on pension and health care systems as aging populations grow and become dependent on a shrinking working population.

Irina Ippolitova, a senior researcher at the Kiev-based Center for Economic Strategy, told CNBC that while declining fertility and the birth rate — referring to the number of live births per 1,000 people each year — had been declining before the war, the Russian invasion made the situation worse.

“Of course, in 2022, it got worse because of this mass migration and because the majority of those who left Ukraine were people of working age, economically active people,” she added.

“A lot of women have left in theory, and for those who have stayed, the war and uncertainty means they are not prepared to give birth in Ukraine, and the number of births is still falling.”

Even if peace talks bear fruit and the war ends, Ippolitova said migration out of Ukraine could continue, while those staying in the country could refrain from starting families if they fear a repeat of the Russian invasion. This is another reason why Ukraine needs security guarantees as part of any peace agreement, she said.

Although fertility trends are difficult to predict, and baby booms often increase after wars end, Ippolitova said the country’s low fertility rate may still pose a problem for the Ukrainian economy in the future.

She said schools and universities were already starting to see a decline in pupil numbers, indicating a decline in the working-age population in the future.

“I think it’s a big problem,” Ippolitova said. “We have a labor shortage at the moment, and after the war, it will get worse… In 10 or 15 years when people my age retire, there will be no one to replace them in the labor market.”

You have introduced the Russian state Incentives for women who have three or more childrenincluding lump sum payments, tax breaks and state benefits. The Kremlin has even revived the Soviet-era “hero mother” award, giving women a cash reward of 1 million rubles (about $13,000) for giving birth to 10 or more children.

However, there remains resistance to such incentives, with Russia recording 1.222 million births in 2024, the lowest annual total since 1999.

In December, Putin said during his meeting End of year press conference That the fertility rate reached 1.4 in 2025 (the actual figure was 1,374) indicated that Russia needed a baby boom.

“We also have a slight decline [in the fertility rate] – About 1.4. “We need to achieve at least 2.0,” Putin said during his annual “Direct Line” speech, telling the audience that “we have to make the happiness of motherhood and fatherhood fashionable.”

Critics say Putin’s stance on the country’s declining fertility rate is one of control rather than demographic concerns.

“I strongly believe that the Putin regime’s efforts to double down on birth promotion are not about any kind of demographic trends. It’s all about societal control,” Konstantin Sonin, the John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, told CNBC.

“[Russia’s authorities] They want the woman to be at home, they want the woman to be with the children. “They want men to be interested in women, not politics,” said Sonin, one of Putin’s most prominent critics.

CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for comments and is awaiting a response.

Sonnen said Putin has already shown he doesn’t care about demographics by starting a war against Ukraine, with the conflict Which causes economic instability, labor market shortages, and inflation.

Sonin said that the Kremlin’s efforts to encourage more births had failed, because women in Russia did not feel safe and secure, with the low birth rate being direct evidence of this and dispelling the positive images of the country and the war promoted by Russia and the state-run media.

“There are things that are more important to any woman, and to any young family, than the amount of money she will receive from the state in the form of a direct cash transfer,” Sonin said. “What matters to them is a general feeling of security. This does not exist in Russia.”

“The quality of life has declined since the beginning of the war. Hundreds of thousands of young people have died because of the war, so people suddenly feel less safe than they would have otherwise.”