Reporter’s Notebook: Dems refuse DHS funding for weeks as Iran War raises terror fears

Sir Isaac Newton postulated that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. It is Newton’s third law of motion and one of the most important rules in all of science.

Newtonian physics can tell you a lot about reactions in politics.

We do not yet know the scale of the war in Iran or its impact. But there will be a political reaction of great importance as we head toward the midterm elections. It is too early to understand how the war will play out, what unexpected twists it may have, and how its consequences might reverberate. Midterm elections.

A screenshot from a video posted to President Donald Trump’s Truth Social account shows Donald Trump making remarks regarding combat operations over Iran on February 28, 2026, in Palm Beach, Florida. (President Trump via Truth Social/Anadolu via Getty Images)

How things will unfold is unclear. But an event of this magnitude and proportion always imposes some political impact. The war may shape the course of the midterm elections.

Let’s start with President Trump’s campaign promises that he will “America First” and keep the United States out of foreign conflicts. Well, that’s out the window. And there is already some friction with the MAGA rule. They may withdraw if they believe the president has broken one of his key campaign promises.

But so far, most Republicans in Congress are siding with the president. A handful of Republicans in Congress — including Reps. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., and Warren Davidson, R-Ohio — agree with Democrats and assert that Trump should come to Congress before sending troops into harm’s way.

I don’t want to belittle this, but it’s almost a “technical” argument. Yes, there are important questions about the Constitution, war powers, and who has the right to “declare war.” But the debate over war powers may not resonate with many voters. However, the decision to go to war when the president promised otherwise could pose potential problems for the president and Republicans in Congress this fall. Voters who feel betrayed by the president can stay home. Especially since the matter seems to contradict the promise made by the president during his election campaign not to wage wars.

Then there is the body bag factor.

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President Donald Trump confirmed the launch of US strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. (Contributor/Getty Images)

Trump was frank in pointing out the possibility of casualties. And there were already some. He is also not embarrassed by a long-term war or even going down to earth.

Remember what happened during First Gulf War While the United States and its allies were pursuing Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait in 1991. Then-President George H. W. Bush courted other countries during a months-long military buildup in the region that received the blessing of Congress. This does not mean that there was support across the board. But Bush and those allied with him on Capitol Hill put the issue before voters. To be sure, Bush lost re-election in 1992. But a few months ago, the general public embraced the campaign. There was flag waving. There were national marches. There was Whitney Houston’s legendary performance of the national anthem at the Super Bowl.

The president’s approval rating rose to a staggering 89% in the early days of the war. But it decreased to about 30% after 17 months due to the economic situation.

Let us assume that the war is going well and that casualties are limited. Republicans in Congress could ride Trump’s coattails. Republicans may be able to bring some areas into their camp if a wave of patriotism sweeps the country.

But be careful if this is a long campaign and the casualty count is high. Or if Americans do not understand why the United States is involved. So far, Trump has offered a series of reasons why the United States should attack Iran. Democrats in Congress don’t like the answers they hear.

Regime change is certainly a good thing if dictators are overthrown. But that doesn’t mean much for the day laborer who voted in Wisconsin and is struggling to make ends meet.

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A driver refuels a car at a Wawa gas station in Media, Pennsylvania, on March 2, 2026. (Matthew Hatcher/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

Watch also Gasoline price. The Strait of Hormuz is the only shipping lane from the Persian Gulf to the open sea and a notorious choke point. Transport of oil through the Strait is already declining rapidly. Other goods transported through the strait include liquefied natural gas. It didn’t take long for Democrats and voters to become convinced that the 2026 midterms would be about affordability. Voters will object if inflation starts with fuel, let alone the cost of goods and services because transporting things is more expensive.

There is a danger that the war will be a turning point in the region and that the Middle East will turn into chaos. Once again, chaos in the Middle East will not matter much to swing voters in northern Maine. But instability of this magnitude could shock markets, raise prices, and affect the availability of products on store shelves. The risks become more complex from an engineering standpoint if China or Russia are involved in one way or another.

Then there is the biggest wild card: terrorism.

A heinous terrorist attack — especially on American soil — would likely motivate voters to rally around the flag and actually help the Republican Party. See how the president is doing George W. Bush I got support after September 11th. Consider here the fact that Republicans broke the historical rule and actually gained seats in the 2002 midterm elections. The president’s party usually loses an average of 27 seats in the House of Representatives in the first midterm elections. 2002 was one of only three instances in which the president’s party gained seats in modern midterm elections.

However, some voters may argue that the consequences and carnage of the terrorist attack are not worth bombing Iran. This would therefore backfire on the president and Republicans in Congress.

However, Democrats have some exposure to the terrorism issue. Democrats refused to fund it Department of Homeland Security (DHS) For about three weeks as they demand changes at ICE. The fight against ICE is resonating with the Democratic base. But Democrats could face a problem if there is a major terrorist attack. That’s why House Republicans are forcing a vote this week to persuade Democrats to sign on to a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security.

Yes, Republicans believe the Department of Homeland Security should be fully operational. Especially now. But Republicans want voters to understand who blocked funding for the Department of Homeland Security as the United States enters a turbulent period on the world stage and the war in Iran deepens. Continuing to oppose funding for the Department of Homeland Security could come back to haunt Democrats if, God forbid, a major terrorist attack occurs during the funding cut. Midterm election ads practically write themselves.

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction, as Newton said in his third law of motion. We cannot yet account for the even decline that is likely to come as a result of the war in Iran in the midterm elections in the fall. But there will be something.

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But Newton’s first law of motion may have broader application for understanding the impact of midterm elections. Newton wrote that a body at rest stays at rest. An object in motion stays in motion.

Things were “stable” with Iran until Trump started the war. Now the Iran issue is “on the move.” This makes it more difficult to stop it.

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