Politicians ‘waltz’ around meaning of Tennessee special election results

Democrats rolled into Tennessee and tried to take over the seat held by former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., this week.

Winning Special elections for seats in the House of Representatives It is a delicate dance. But Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps, Republican of Tennessee, defeated Democrat Aftin Behn by nine points.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Los Angeles, noted that the Cook Political Report rated that district favoring the Republican Party by about 10 points.

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“It’s not an R+25 district. The president won it by 22 points. It’s actually rated as a slightly Republican district. So to win it by nine points is almost the opposite of what we might expect,” Johnson said.

In other words, Republicans won the special election With the expected exact margin. This is despite Republicans fearing that the rise of Democrats will act as a weather vane in terms of how popular the party is, if there are dips in Trump’s coalition and what the path will look like in the 2026 midterm elections.

“The Democrats put in millions of dollars. They were really trying to create a scenario that there’s some kind of wave going on. There’s not. We’ve just proven that there’s not,” Johnson said.

Republican Representative-elect Matt Van Eps delivers his victory speech at the Millennium Maxwell House Nashville on December 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee. (Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)

maybe. Maybe not. Special elections are special. A snapshot of where a particular district stood at a point in time – often without the benefit of ordinary voters, emerges every November. That’s why Special elections for the House of Representatives Sometimes they are closer than would generally be expected. The party out of power often pumps large amounts of money into these contests to win.

If nothing else, it forces the other party to burn a lot of money as well. But trying to make the race seem important only reinforces the base and creates the illusion that things are not going well for the other side. Maybe people think voters are fed up and are demanding change.

A special election is like checking the score of a football game during the second quarter. Maybe one team’s passing game is really successful. This may dictate the outcome. But we haven’t seen the two fumbles in the second half. This means nothing about the failed shot on the field goal and the blocked kick.

A lot can happen.

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Frankly, switching seats in special House elections is daunting. Party out of power in the House of Representatives or vice versa Occupies the White House He often makes a race out of it. This could indicate weakness in the ruling party or even in the president as the next election approaches. One of the best examples of this came in 2017. House Democrats came close to overturning four special elections in strongly Republican seats ranging from Montana to Kansas to South Carolina to Georgia.

But Democrats didn’t get any of those seats.

However, Democrats have made a few of them closer than you might think.

In fact, one of the best examples involved Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kan.

president Donald Trump He appointed former Rep. Mike Pompeo, R-Kansas, to serve as CIA director and later secretary of state. Estes is nominated to succeed Pompeo. Pompeo won his district with 61% of the vote in 2016. Estes beat Democratic challenger James Thompson, beating his opponent by six points and receiving 52% of the vote.

Despite the defeat, Democrats and political observers noted Thompson’s relative strength in the special election. Many wondered if this was a harbinger of a Democratic wave in 2018.

President Donald Trump and Matt Van Eps (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images; Nicole Hester/The Tennessean/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

But the Kansas area is considered a Republican stronghold. Democrats took control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections. However, Estes won re-election the following year by nearly 19 points.

Despite the hubbub surrounding special elections, there have been only four major “twists” in House special elections in the past eighteen years. One of these is in A Hawaii special election It was an anomaly in which a Republican won a three-way contest while two Democrats pulled votes from each other.

But back to Tennessee.

Could Democrats have had more success with a moderate candidate? Behn was a progressive. Perhaps the centrist would have had a better chance of winning a district like this, especially when one takes into account his success Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, D-Virginia, last month.

The rise of Democrats in Tennessee casts new uncertainty on the 2026 GOP map

Can a Van Epps wins Will he encourage other Republicans to resign? The House majority will be 220-214 once Johnson is sworn in on Thursday. But some in the Republican Party are eager to leave. Despite this, they may think there is enough cushion Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican from Georgia He leaves in January.

Fox was told that there are several Republicans in the House who want to head for the exits. Some are upset that the White House controlled the entire agenda, and that Johnson kept the House at bay for weeks during the government shutdown. Another factor: President Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine.

Moderate Republicans may look at the Tennessee result and insist on the party’s handling of health care in the coming weeks. This is a looming factor given that Democrats withheld their votes for government funding on health care this fall. It’s also possible that moderate Republicans in California and New York will see this through Relative democratic strength In this contest as a sign that they face a tough re-election next year. As we said, Democrats flipped the House seven years ago after coming close in several special elections.

Republican candidate Matt Van Eps delivers a victory speech after winning a special election for Congress in Tennessee’s 7th District, on December 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

Then there Redistricting and gerrymandering. Van Epps’ win underscores the concept that drawing lines favorable to your party works.

But this redistricting process took place several years ago. Tennessee Republicans attracted former Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., a Blue Dog, and every other Democrat from the Nashville-area district. The Republican Party divided Nashville and its suburbs into three wards, diluting the Democratic vote among many GOP areas. This was a safety valve to ensure a GOP victory on Tuesday. It also explains the dangers of the current wave of redistricting by both parties. Additionally, it highlights how redrawing lines can make some contests closer than they should be.

The two sides are now dancing around explanations for what happened on Tuesday. Republicans say this is why they will control the House of Representatives next year. Democrats say they won, even though they lost. That’s why they will control the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.

He called it the “Waltz” in Tennessee.

But special elections loom in Texas, New Jersey and Georgia.

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It is doubtful that these seats exist.

So don’t expect a Texas Two-Step game, a Garden State Stomp, or a night when the lights went out in Georgia.