Peaked, paused, and poised? India’s market reboot at half-time

2025-07-03 08:05:20

Hello, this is Amala Balakrishner, writing from Singapore. This week, I study the forecasts of Indian stocks for the second half of the year and how to compare their peers in the other Asian market.

Daily activity in the old Delhi shows crowding, population, population and lifestyle

Danny Lehman Photo Bank Gety pictures

This report is from the “Inside India” newsletter in CNBC for this week, which brings you a time and time in time and the market is suspended on the emerging power and major companies behind its rise in Nizak. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

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The big story

Six months ago, 2025 forecasts for Indian stocks The roses seemed out of roses.

The stock market in India was entering the year from correction, and my talks with market monitors were dark, as many expected a slowdown in profits and noble evaluation complications.

While we stand in the middle of the road of the year, it is safe to say that Indian stocks had a six -month -old tumultuity that was marked by the operation of the bull after the tariff of US President Donald Trump, SalesAnd Signs of recovery.

However, the MSCI India-which picks up 157 large and medium stocks- 5.68 % so far, increased, or nearly seven degrees Celsius less than the MSCI Asia Pacific index.

Meanwhile, 50 stocks Elegant 50 Benchmark has added 8 % so far this year, which has led to 19.6 % twice in the Hang Kong Index in Hong Kong and 29.4 % in the South Korea index.

My talks about what was not long ago The highest stock markets in the worldI moved from euphoria to cautious optimism in the short term.

“It reached its climax in the Indian market last September, and then it was corrected along the way until February before returning to the peak levels now. However, a quarter of a quarter of a quarter in the quarter, so we went back to the first box,” Bramod Jobi, co -founder of investment managers in Marcelus, told me to go back to the first box. “

Regardless of low profits, experts have also raised concerns about India’s ability to face competition from their regional peers, which have cheaper complications while they also had a favorable demography that supports consumption growth.

Rival Hong Kong, which has seen an increase in the lists It is said that it attracts renewed interest in global money.

VIVEK Subramanyam, founder and CEO of the Investment Bank and the Director of Assets Thumbal Capital, appreciates that Elegant 50 It is traded by 60 % in addition to the Hang Seng and 70 % index in addition to its peers on the emerging market in Asia.

He said: “areas such as Taiwan and Asia in Asia, with stronger growth horizons, can outperform India.”

However, Subramanyam expects that the profits of Indian companies per share will grow in 2026 by 15 % or 17 % of its peers in emerging Asia and double those in the Hang Seng index.

It is expected that “Indian markets produce other gains of two numbers” up to 9 % to 10 % in the next six months.

Subramanyam explained that the commercial deal between the United States and India – which is very expected soon – will allow growth at the top side of the range because it indicates a decrease in protectionist policies in India.

He added: “India’s assessments are certainly high compared to other emerging markets, and the short -term bullish aspects are limited. But I think the recent slowdown and continuous recovery in growth are now a good time to buy Indian stocks selectively in the long term.”

Bet on India

While investors are betting on India, Subramanyam warned of the need to be careful when choosing stocks.

Subramanyam is looking for compatible returns and what it calls “frequent revenues”, which can be predicted and sustainable over a period of 5 years.

One of these companies is the first and intermediate company, which provides home loans that meet the needs of low and medium -income layers in India.

“People will always need home loans. Therefore, there is an inherent revenue flow to the company, which I think can worsen in the next few years, given the increasing young population in India,” explained subramanyam.

Marcelus’ Gubbi looks like a strong public budget and money budget, which can be easily deployed for research and development or even initiatives to enhance staff productivity, which can eventually make better performance and profits.

I asked if he had a preference for value over high -quality stocks, big or small names.

He said: “I think the value and quality are good representation across the signs of the maximum market. You can not really say that all large maximum shares are quality, the small maximum is the value.”

Gubbi says, large hats are trading a discount into small hats where the latter was witnessing “an inconsistent amount of money flows”, partly due to investments by retailers in local investment funds.

It has an approach from the base to the top to choose the stocks, which is not playing for the market sectors and markets.

However, Gubbi added that the managers of the Flexi Cap Mutual boxes are increasingly supporting large hats on small kinetic names when determining the allocations, “partially because the assessments are still relative.”

Long -term play

My ready -made meals from speaking to Subramanyam, Gubbi and Kevin Carter, founder of EMQQ Global, consistent: India is a long -term play.

Gubbi tells me that “prediction moments of short -term stock prices are not only typical, but they are somewhat useful.”

Carter added that India is the place where every investor in the emerging market must get his money.

Carter added: “The population of India is greater than all other emerging markets combined, except for China. So on paper, it is perfect. It has the largest population, the best population composition, and the fastest growth, and this is consumption, so on paper, everything you can require.”

The investor – whose focus is primarily on technology companies in the new era – says Indian internet companies provide stronger momentum and attractive assessments than their peers in the emerging market, although they are more expensive.

The companies that are betting on include EternityThe parent company of Zomato Food Delivery platform, travel platform Le Travenues technologyand Also known as IXIGOAnd employment and marriage platform The edge of the information.

Carter says that these companies are in the early roles of their growth, adding that they have huge potential to develop their revenues and profits as Indian consumers become richer and spend more over the next decade or decade.

He expects that the names of Indian technology will witness a reception in the interest of the investor in the medium term, as investors look forward to rotating from the names of American technology, such as the so -called wonderful seven shares, amid total economic uncertainty and weaker dollars.

Carter added: “India has a strong public infrastructure and the best leaders who run technology companies. So it is an ideal place for global investors to invest in it, especially for Internet companies, which are scheduled to see a double in their growth.”

You choose the top TV on CNBC

DBS says there is a momentum of the stock market in India to expand an additional record.

Radika Rao, chief economist in DBS, said there are positive signs that Indian markets can reach new levels. RAO is also optimistic that India can reach a deal with the United States, but it has noticed that New Delhi may not lower barriers on the agricultural sector very quickly.

Anz says that the repercussions of the American trade deal will not harm the growth of India

Sanjay Macher, the chief economist in Southeast Asia and India, said that even if it was not a trade agreement with the United States, it may not come out, the strike to the New Delhi economy may not be significant because trade is a “somewhat small part” of India’s growth.

– Yeo box ping

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– Yeo box ping