Pacifist Japan seems to be doubling down on arms exports

JapanFamous for her Peaceful The constitution now puts its attention on the global arms exports market.

Defense Minister General Nakatani Earlier this month, Nikki told that he wanted to strengthen defense exports in Japan, indicating a clear shift in the country’s weapons policy, which has so far been limited to providing food for Japanese self -defense forces, or JSDF.

Prime Minister Shigro Ishiba also indicated DSEI JapanThe largest defensive exhibition in the country.

While the shift in the situation comes at the same time when Global defense spending Experts told CNBC that Japan’s motives are more associated with its security concerns than benefiting from the increase in demand for global weapons.

The biggest reason behind this transformation is to deepen relations and increase the interim operation of the Japanese forces with allies and partners.

By exporting her arms out, a The country is able to improve the susceptibility of intercourse With the purchase parties by unifying the maintenance of the devices and creating joint training opportunities.

“This logical basis was the main pillar after the Prime Minister [Shinzo] ABE invented the concept of “pre -emptive contribution to peace” in 2013, which aims to deepen cooperation with other Western countries in this field, especially in the areas of security. “

When the late Abe was in office, he led efforts to review the interpretation of Article 9 of Japan’s constitution to allow JSDF to do so A more active contribution For international peacekeeping efforts and defense of the allies.

Inoui said that Japan also wants to develop its defensive industrial base, which was in “very bad conditions” before the country moved to increase the defense budget in 2022. Exports will allow it to achieve the savings of size needed to produce local production. more Life canal.

Instead of investing at the local defense base in Japan, the country has bought weapons to a large extent from the United States, such as F-35 Fighter aircraft and SPY-7 radar systems.

“This created a severe situation between the defense industry in Japan, and many companies have left industrial companies, especially in the supply chain,” said Enoy. In 2023, More than 100 companies have been reported To leave the defense industry over the past twenty years.

Nuko Oki, the political world of politics in American politics, said Japanese defense companies are working traditionally with a limited limited demand from JSDF. The ability to export defense elements means that companies will have a larger customer base, help them develop production capabilities, reduce costs, and have more flexibility.

“Even if JSDF needs more, for example, ammunition, these companies will not be keen to invest in new facilities to produce more of them, if you think this is a one -time request. If there is a more stable demand at a higher level, they can justify the investment,” said Oki.

As of 2024, Japanese arms exports amounted to 21 million tips – only 0.1 % of global arms exports – according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The value of TIV or Trend-Endicator is a measure of the size of international transfers for major traditional weapons.

In comparison, neighboring South Korea exported 936 million TIV companies in 2024, reaching 3.3 % of global weapons exports, while TIV for China reached the largest Asian weapons source from 2020-2024 1.13 billion, which represents 3.9 % of global shipments.

Defense is attractive as a growth sector, according to veteran investor David Roche, strategic in Quantum Strategy. “The request will exceed the offer for a contract,” He said. Therefore, building local capabilities is of utmost importance.

Roche said that if countries like Japan remain dependent on the United States, the Trump administration’s most treated approach will force them to pay more defense, or defense equipment provided by the United States

Roche referred to the speech of US Defense Secretary Beit Higseth during 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, Earlier this month: “We ask – and indeed, Nasr – that our allies and partners play their role in defense … NATO members pledge to spend 5 % of the GDP of defense, even Germany.”

“Therefore, it is not logical for countries in Europe to do so while the main allies in Asia are spending less on defense in the face of a more enormous threat, not to mention North Korea,” he added.

“If they do not trust in the United States to honor the connections of the treaty, individual countries must ensure their security and spend a lot of money in doing so,” Roche said.

Japan adopted in 1967 “Three principles on arms exports“The export of restricted weapons, and the expansion of these principles later to impose a comprehensive embargo on arms exports, except for the transfer of military technologies to the United States

The country relaxed this position during the reign of Abe, where former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida diluted restrictions in 2023.

the The latest changes Allowing the defense equipment manufactured in Japan under a license from foreign defense companies, including the final products, to export them to the country of license and from there to third countries.

For example, Japan agreed in late 2023 To manufacture – under the license – and export Patriot objection missiles to the United States, which has exhausted their stocks after providing these missiles with Ukraine.

South Korea neighbor has witnessed an increasing global interest Arms He strives to become a major supplier of global weapons. Will Japan be able to compete? Experts differ.

Roche says Japan has knowledge, skills and technology to be a major supplier of weapons, but IOG’s inoue warns that Japan may face manufacturing issues due to a decrease in its population and the growing proportion of the elderly.

“I think it is very difficult for Japan to focus again on manufacturing functions,” he said.

Rand Oki referred to the lists that are still suspended. “Japan has the technical ability to do many things,” but with high export regulations, exports will be used mainly as a tool to enhance their industrial base and defense defense with similar countries in thinking, especially the United States