Operation Epic Fury: America strikes Iran — now the real test of US strategy begins

The second round has begun. Launched by the United States and Israel Coordinated military strikes Inside IranPointing to the existential threat associated with Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs. There were reports of explosions in Tehran and other cities. Iranian airspace has been breached. Iran’s Supreme Leader has reportedly been taken to a safe location. Tehran has already fired counter-missiles and has vowed further retaliation, including possible strikes against US bases if the attacks continue.

Strikes are calledOperation Epic RageIt is the most significant US-Israeli strike on Iran since Operation Midnight Hammer last year.

The military question was never whether we could strike.

It was always what happened next.

We’ve been here before

Last June, Operation Midnight Hammer sent seven B-2 stealth bombers and a guided-missile submarine against Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Fourteen 30,000-pound bunker-busting shells and more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles were hit in less than half an hour. president Donald Trump He called it “complete and complete erasure.”

It wasn’t. The damage was severe. But subsequent intelligence assessments concluded that the program had been delayed by months rather than years. Iran reportedly transferred parts of its enriched uranium stockpile before the strikes. By late 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency admitted that it could no longer fully verify Iran’s nuclear stockpile after inspectors were restricted or expelled.

The military force destroyed the facilities. It did not erase knowledge. The intention was not resolved.

Tehran has learned this lesson.

Now Washington must show that it has learned its own lessons.

Ladder of revenge

Iran has already begun to respond. The likely pattern is familiar: calculated escalation.

Expect proxy attacks, cyber operations, missile signals, and naval pressure. The Strait of Hormuz remains Tehran’s strongest economic lever. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil flows through this corridor. After the first strike, the Iranian parliament voted to close it, then reversed its decision. The second confrontation, given the dynamics of the succession, may not follow the same scenario.

If Iran directly targets US forces in large numbers, escalation could quickly move beyond limited exchanges of strikes. The difference between a punitive raid and a sustained campaign is often one missile too many.

The system is broken – and it won’t go away

Those who expect collapse should be careful. On December 28, 2025, protests broke out in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and spread across the country. Thousands were killed or arrested. The system shook, but did not fall.

The security forces were not broken. Senior defections did not materialize. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei He is eighty-six. Caliphate looms on the horizon. Karim Sajjadpour described that moment as the “autumn of the ayatollahs,” a regime under pressure but still intact. The Council on Foreign Relations identifies three plausible outcomes for the post-Khamenei era: continuity, IRGC dominance, or fragmentation. Nothing guarantees moderation.

If clerical rule becomes weaker, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains the most organized institution in the country.

External strikes can break systems. They can also unite hardliners.

The Revolutionary Guard may emerge stronger, not weaker.

Opposition question

Some outside Iran look to Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. He has name recognition and diaspora support. But symbolic leadership and governance are not replaceable. He does not lead an organized internal apparatus capable of running a country with a population of 92 million immediately.

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Others point to the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq Organization (MEK) and the National Council of Resistance of Iran. They maintain a regulated external network and cite congressional resolutions such as H.Res. 100 and H.Res. 1148 supports a democratic, secular, non-nuclear Iran. Reports have described fighters linked to the MEK conducting coordinated operations against regime compounds, indicating the extent of the operations.

But the operational scope does not equal the legitimacy of the government. The MEK’s wartime alliance with Saddam Hussein continues to cast a shadow over its domestic credibility. that Armed opposition The group can destabilize the regime. Consequence management requires broader national buy-in.

At present, there is no clear blueprint for the post-regime phase.

This matters more today than it did yesterday.

China and Russia will not stand idly by

Beijing and Moscow It condemned previous attacks but avoided direct confrontation. This self-control does not mean passivity. China remains the largest consumer of Iranian oil. Russia conducted joint exercises with the Iranian naval forces. Neither of them needs to send troops to complicate Washington’s goals. Arms transfers, intelligence cooperation, cyber support, and diplomatic protection at the United Nations are sufficient to shape outcomes.

The conflict may remain confined regionally. But friction between great powers always lurks on the margins.

The real test starts now

The second strike has occurred.

The military parade is complete.

Now comes the most difficult stage.

Did Washington take into account the escalation in Hormuz? Have you succeeded in strengthening the power of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard? Are you prepared for succession turmoil? Is it defined? Clear objectives beyond “weaken and deterrence”? Have you set exit criteria?

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Iran learned from the first round. She dispersed the material. Security measures were tightened. She survived the shock.

America must prove that it has learned, too.

Military power It can lead to runways being dug up, tunnels collapsing and radars being silenced.

The strategy determines whether that force will reshape the system’s behavior or merely reset the clock.

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The world is watching the explosions.

History will judge what comes the next morning.

Click here to read more from Robert Maggins

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