Nvidia faces Wall Street’s high expectations two years into AI boom

Two years have passed since the explosion of artificial intelligence began to transform Nafidia a job. since thenThe revenue of the chip maker has multiplied more than three times and four profits.

NafidiaThe profit report of the second fiscal quarter, scheduled for Wednesday, will celebrate the second anniversary of the growth, as the company has turned from being known as the playmaker maker to its current position in the heart of the technology industry.

Last month, Nvidia became the first company to reach a The market ceiling is $ 4 trillionAnd it continued to estimate the value. Since the end of 2022, at the time, Openai Chatgpt has been launched and sparked the mutation of obstetric intelligence, the NVIDIA share price rose twelve times. 33 % rose this year, and closed on Friday at $ 177.99.

Growth is still large for the size of NVIDIA, but it slowed down. After five quarters of three -numbers expansion in 2023 and 2024, growth decreased to 69 % in the fiscal year The first quarter this year. NVIDIA is expected to report a 53 % annual jump to $ 45.9 billion in its report in the second quarter, according to the compatibility of analysts’ estimates in LSEG.

The data center revenue in the first quarter constituted 88 % of the total NVIDIA sales, which is the clearest sign of the importance of artificial intelligence in its business. The company said that 34 % of total sales last year He came from three unveiled agents. Analysts say NVIDIA’s final users are major internet companies and cloud services providers such as Microsoftand Googleand Amazon and Dead.

“The assumptions and NVIDIA performance are really dictating what the market will start pricing in the artificial intelligence trade, and that all artificial intelligence trade was mainly leading the market last year,” said Melissa Auto, head of Alpha Visual Research at the S & P Global, who combines Wall Street research.

NVIDIA constitutes about 7.5 % of the S&P 500.

Unlike NVIDIA, the Tech’s Megacap companies have reported the quarterly results in late July, and the Wall Street update on its investment plans. In general, they are almost looking for spending $ 320 billion on artificial intelligence technology and data center this year.

Openai, who is still private but has hundreds of billions of dollars Softbank and Oracle To spend $ 500 billion over the next four years on Stargate projectany President Donald Trump He announced in January.

Analysts say About half From AI Capital Endness ends with NVIDIA. The company’s dependence on the so -called superfits makes them vulnerable to changes in the macroeconomic environment and in the artificial intelligence industry, which is still difficult to predict.

CEO of Openai Sam Altman He said last week He believes that “investors as a whole are exaggerated about artificial intelligence,” and he said it could be “bubble“

But do not expect a decline yet. Openai cfo Sarah Al Raheb CNBC said On Wednesday that the company is “constantly” does not have enough computing power.

As always, Wall Street will pay close attention to NVIDIA directives and other outlook comments from CEO Jensen Huang. For the third financial quarter, analysts expect revenues of 50 % to $ 52.7 billion, according to LSEG. If NVIDIA is raising higher and at the top of the second quarter, analysts say this type of “Overpower“Artificial intelligence can push optimism higher.

Due to installing more Blackweell chips, experts expect that their superior computer power will enable companies like Openai and Anthropic to create more artificial intelligence models. GPT-5 was trained by Openai, which was announced earlier this month, on Nvidia’s From the last generation of fold chipsAnd not the latest Blackwell processors.

NVIDIA said last year that Blackwell would be limited due to the offer – how many chips can build and ship – not by demand.

Blackwell Ultra is expected to start charging in the second half of 2025. NVIDIA has recently received a report from Asia analysts who said Rubin is expected to witness the chip technology that the largest part of GPU sales in 2027 is witnessing early production problems.

One of the visible signs of the rise of NVIDIA is Huang’s fame around the world. It is regularly achieved by Trump and during the quarter he traveled to meet business leaders and officials in Taiwan, China, Germany, England and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Huang hit a deal With Trump to restore access to the Chinese market. NVIDIA will pay 15 % of China’s chips’s revenues to the United States government for licenses to export a chip of artificial intelligence that focuses on China called H20, Trump He said this month. The president added that he had requested 20 %, but Huang negotiated.

H20 deserves a lot for NVIDIA. The slide contributed about $ 8 billion in sales in the second quarter, NVIDIA He said in MayBefore the US government says it requires a license to ship it to China, and to close sales effectively.

NVIDIA has not included any H20 sales in its instructions for the second quarter, and analysts doubt that it will include any in its expectations for the current period, in part because the Chinese government pressures cloud service providers to use local chips from companies such as Huawei.

If the H20 is included in the guidance, it may enhance the revenue expectations of about $ 2 billion to $ 3 billion, according to analysts at Keybanc, who recommend purchasing the arrow. But they said they expect NVIDIA to exclude it completely, after that Advanced small devices’ Lead In early August.

“In addition, given a 15 % possible tax on artificial intelligence exports and pressure from the Chinese government of artificial intelligence service providers to use local artificial intelligence chips, we expect the administration to direct conservatively,” Keybanc analysts wrote.

Nvidia works on China’s new artificial intelligence chip Based on Blackwail, it is likely to need the president’s approval.

“I am sure he is telling the president all the time,” Trade Minister Howard Lottenic He said About HUANG last week on CNBC’s “Squawk on the street.”

He watches: CNBC interview with Trade Minister Howard Lootnick