Novartis, Roche could be most at risk

president Donald Trump A tariff on pharmaceuticals imported in the United States is scheduled to be imposed on any day – and duties may have a greater impact on some drug makers than others, according to some analysts.

Trump He told reporters Earlier this month, its administration will start implementing the low pharmaceutical fees early on August 1 and increase the rate in about a year or 18 months. he Threaten To impose up to 200 % tariffs on imported drugs.

It is still unclear whether to follow this accurate plan and the rate of tariff, which makes it difficult to assess how politics fully affects drug and patient makers. Local drug manufacturing operations are also growing, as many companies have recently announced billions of dollars in new installations to build goodwill with the president, but it is possible that it takes several years before these sites are operated.

Some analysts have estimated the risk of potential tariffs of different companies based on their current manufacturing networks, among other factors.

Exhaustedand Bristol Mairescape and Eli Lily It looks “relatively good location” because the effects of their feet in the United States are larger than operations abroad, while Novartis and Rush Steve Scala, a TD Cowen analyst, said in a Monday note.

In Memorandum in March, Jeffrey Michael Yi analyst also called Amgen and BIOGEN It is the largest definition of definitions between biotechnology companies that cover them. Glyid and Vertex Pharmaceuticals He said it is likely to be less exposed.

But Biogen may explain about it during it The first quarter profit call In May, you expect the minimum exposure to Trump’s definitions, even if the private pharmaceutical fees are performed. This is because a large percentage of its revenues in the United States is one of the products that have manufacturing operations in the country, as well as due to the current global inventory functions of the company.

Skalla said the customs tariff is likely to take a meaningful bite of the free cash flow for companies for at least two years after its implementation. He said this depends on a conversation with an unveiled expert, who is the former financial manager of the pharmaceutical company.

Skalla said that this expert believes that drug makers will be able to raise some drug prices, but they increase them enough to compensate for the full definitions “will not be unreasonable politically” because patients are already suffering from a problem in providing drugs. He said that drug makers may also move on to triming spending on research and development, but he added that the expert said that the main cuts are not likely because innovation is the key to the growth of each company in the long run.

Skalla added that the expert believes that the drug tariff that exceeds 50 % will be “problematic and punitive for industry.”

“In this scenario, companies will need to be very aggressive in transferring manufacturing to the United States and the major discounts in research and development will not be not possible,” Skalla said.

In recent months, some drug executives have drugs A tariff tariff for imported drugsSaying that they will harm research and development and can lead to less treatments for patients. Some health policy experts also told CNBC that these fees can The complex pharmaceutical supply chain is disruptedIt is possible that the prices of drugs in the United States will lead to a critical shortage of medicine.

In a statement, Roche said it has a “strong presence” in the United States, which includes 15 research and development sites and 14 manufacturing facilities. The company also referred to its recent plans to invest $ 50 billion in the United States

Roche said she believes that medications and diagnoses should be exempt from customs tariffs to “protecting the patient’s access, supply chains and future innovation.” But the company said that it is ready for possible fees and is confident in its ability to manage any effects and ensure that it is not disabled to its products, indicating mitigation efforts such as inventory modifications.

Analysts spokesperson for other companies mentioned that most of them were at risk of customs tariffs did not immediately respond to the suspension requests.

Skalla said, Apafi, Astrazenecaand Eli Lilyand Merk and Vizar You have the largest United States manufacturing networks that, with 10 main plants each.

He said that Apfi, Bristol Maires Square and Elie Lily are the only companies that have more popular factories in the United States than abroad. Abbvie and Eli Lilly have nine of those facilities abroad, while Bristol Maires Square has two.

These three companies also have the highest percentage of sites registered with the American Food and Drug Administration to manufacture active pharmaceutical components in the United States, while Daiichi Sankyo, Novartis and Zoetis at least. Roche and Novo Nordsk It also has a low percentage of active ingredients in the United States for the rest of the world, according to the note.

GSK It has the largest drug manufacturing network abroad, with 31 detection of the main plants. Scala said that the company said it was planning to close many of these facilities.

Other companies with large manufactures abroad include Veizer with 27 factories, Sanovi With 16, zoetis with 14 and ENACO With 11. Some drug makers, including Merck, Roche and FutureIt did not reveal the number of important plants they have outside the United States, according to the memo.

He said that Ireland is one of the factors that it should take into account because it seems to be a specific target of definitions. Trump has again and again Ireland dedicated In order to “seduce” American drug makers with contracts of low -company tax rates.

ABBVIE and Merck have the most registered drug manufacturing sites in Ireland. These facilities manufacture or import drugs distributed in the United States

Some drug makers, including GSK, Novartis and Roche, have no Irish manufacturing sites registered with the FDA.

Jefferies’ Yee Amgen and Bigen highlighted as risk companies due to its international tax advantages. He said that AMGEN has manufacturing operations in Ireland and Singapore, which reduces the amount of taxes it pays by 6 %.

Important manufacturing operations are found in Biogen in North Carolina and Switzerland. YE said that the company is getting a 8 % tax break thanks to how to impose its profit taxes abroad.

By comparison, Vertex and Gilead are less likely to benefit from these international tax advantages, YEE said. Vertex manufactures its medications in Boston.

He added that although Gilead has a manufacturing in Ireland, it mainly produces its drugs in California and sells many HIV drugs in the United States

When the Scala’s Scala from TD Cowen asked how to reduce the cost increases from the tariffs, they pointed to many possible options. This includes exploring alternative sources of active ingredients outside Europe, or exploring alternative contracts manufacturing options in non -European sites, such as the American region of Puerto Rico.