MARK HALPERIN: Talarico thrills liberals, but Texas history looms over Senate bid

Hope can be a dangerous thing indeed.

State Rep. James Tallarico He said that Tuesday night — “A little hope is a dangerous thing” — and he meant it as a call to action, a call to the faithful. But the line still lingers in the Texas air for a different reason. Democrats are about to invest a great deal of time, money and, yes, hope into the idea that the young state legislator from Round Rock is the man who will break his party’s nearly four-decade winless drought in the Lone Star State.

Hope can be refreshing. It can also be deceived.

For Democrats, the drought is real. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Ann Richards is a memory. The Bush era came and then went. The Tea Party rose. Donald Trump He reshaped the Republican Party. Beto O’Rourke flashed and faded. The red wall still stands, impregnable.

Now comes Tallarico — young, fluent, quick-witted, comfortable quoting Scripture and sound bites from the news at the same time. The media loves him. He was stunned Joe Rogan The appearance of a long podcast had Democrats texting each other with exclamation marks. He made serious money. He showed a talent for turning controversy into currency, and brilliantly exploited A Late-night brawl involving Stephen Colbert Its fuel fundraising and free exposure.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Democrat of Texas and candidate for U.S. Senate, during a debate at the 2026 Texas AFL-CIO COPE Convention in Georgetown, Texas on Saturday, January 24, 2026. (Bob Demerich/Texas Tribune/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

for him Primary victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett It surprised some Democratic insiders. Crockett had higher national name recognition, a strong base in Dallas and the endorsement of the vice president Kamala Harris Which many assumed would be decisive. It didn’t happen. Harris’ endorsement did not propel Crockett to the top. Talarico won — not narrowly, not vaguely, but convincingly enough to suggest that something real was happening within his party.

And yet.

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Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Senator John Cornyn finished ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton in the primary. Force a runoff to be determined Race as much as the Democrats do. Most veteran Texas political handicappers in both parties believe Cornyn will defeat Tallarico in November. Cornyn is a well-known, experienced financier who is capable of running a disciplined campaign with national assistance. the Republican in the Senate The device will line up behind him in an instant.

Texas State Rep. James Tallarico, D-Austin, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks at a primary election watch event Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in Austin, Texas. (Eric Jay/AP Photo)

Views have become more mixed on what would happen if Paxton were the nominee. Paxton has baggage – legal troubles, ethical issues, and a long string of scandalous headlines. Democrats are salivating at the prospect. They see a way in: suburban Republicans who feel uncomfortable with Paxton, independents who are turned off by the drama, Hispanic and black voters, and a Democrat who speaks well about faith and justice.

But even here, hope may be more work than math.

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Because Democrats intoxicated by Tallarico’s rise are ignoring an inconvenient truth: He is Liberal. Not moderate in middle clothes. Not a triangle. On issue after issue — abortion, gun control, borders, climate, gay rights, taxes — he sits comfortably on the left side of his party. In some ways, he appears more liberal than Crockett, whose harsher rhetoric sometimes obscured a more traditional political image.

Hope, divorced from history and calculation, can become a kind of mirage. One day, Democrats thought Beto O’Rourke would do it. Before that, it was Wendy Davis. And every time, the money rolls in, the national media swoon, and Texas Republicans quietly count the votes.

Tallarico’s savvy media performances and professions of faith—he is open about his Christianity and frequently speaks of moral purpose—have created an image of a post-partisan figure. But opposition research is coming. It always is. Republicans are already collecting shots, speeches and votes. They dig into his issue positions and personal life. A December story detailing his social media interactions with OnlyFans models and prostitutes certainly won’t be the last unflattering headline to be revived in the general election.

Texas State Rep. James Tallarico, D-Travis, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, shake hands. (Bob Demerich/Getty Images)

Texas is not Manhattan or Malibu. It’s Houston’s energy corridors, the changing politics of the Rio Grande Valley, the fast-growing suburbs of Dallas and Fort Worth, and the small towns where cultural conservatism still buzzes beneath the surface. Yes, Democrats have made gains in the suburbs, and Tuesday’s results indicate a swing back to the Latino vote for Democrats. But statewide victory requires threading a very narrow needle — expanding the urban base, trapping converts in the suburbs, winning over Latinos decisively, and cutting into rural Republican margins without scaring off culturally moderate voters.

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This is a very dangerous act for any Democrat. This is especially true for someone with a reliably liberal record and a personal blank slate that’s about to be filled with super PAC ads.

On the Republican side, the calculations are cold and clear. The smart money says Donald Trump will overcome his friendship with Paxton and ultimately side with Cornyn, heeding the advice and pleas of senior political aides aligned with the incumbent president, as well as Senate Republican allies like the majority leader. John Thune. The reason is simple: Endorse Cornyn, and he will likely save the seat and avoid spending tens of millions of dollars in a brutal runoff and then a divisive general election at a time when every seat — and every dollar — counts.

Trump understands power. So do Senate Republicans. Losing the Texas seat wouldn’t just be a headline; It will be a body blow.

Which brings us back to hope.

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Tallarico’s rise is real. His talent is undeniable. He gave Texas Democrats something they haven’t had in a long time: a candidate who feels fresh rather than recycled, fluent rather than flustered, and religious without being opinionated. In a politics that often seems exhausted, he appears energetic.

But hope, divorced from history and calculation, can turn into a kind of mirage. Democrats once believed O’Rourke would do it. Before that, it was Wendy Davis. And every time, the money rolls in, the national media swoon, and Texas Republicans quietly count the votes.

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“A little hope is dangerous,” Tallarico said.

He meant it as inspiration. in texas politicsmay be prophetic.

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