MARK HALPERIN: Inside Trump’s 36 race chess match for the House majority

On Tuesday night, at the Capitol Hill Club, just steps from the House office buildings and a world away from the news hysteria, Trump’s senior political leadership gathered its core team. Mid-term talk. It was not a march. It wasn’t a pep talk. It was a business session — about two hours, a buffet of chicken and steak, and about 75 to 100 people in the room, many of them Cabinet secretaries and their top aides, almost all of them veteran politicians.

The general mood, according to one of those present, was not panicky. Didn’t shake. But not optimistic either. Just focus. The kind of focus that comes from knowing that the patterns of history are not on your side right now.

Midterm elections are always brutal for the president’s party. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in all but a few elections. The average loss is not measured in single numbers but in tens. The modern political era is full of examples: 1994 l Bill Clinton2010 l Barack Obama2018 l Donald Trump same. The gravitational pull of the backlash is real.

That’s why Tuesday night’s meeting was important.

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Susie Wells, the president’s chief political engineer and one of the most disciplined figures in both parties, hosted and spoke briefly. Then pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio took over, presenting roughly 25 slides of data — demographics, issue salience, testing messages, and a summary of what worked and what failed.

the address: Economy This will be the issue at the ballot box next November.

Not immigration. Not foreign policy. Not Epstein or Borders. The investigations, indictments, or January 6 are not retroactive. Economy.

Fabrizio’s data showed that some messages resonated with key voters: banning stock trading for members of Congress; Promoting greater transparency in health insurance pricing and claims reimbursement; Reducing prescription drug costs; And protect Trump’s tax cuts. Housing affordability, especially for younger voters, looms large – a kitchen-table issue that affects generations, though one the administration has yet to resolve, either politically or through policy.

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It’s worth noting that taking credit for closing the border doesn’t resonate as much as Republicans might assume. It’s not that voters are opposed Border enforcement; Many see it simply as a basic provision rather than a life-changing economic intervention.

And the persuadable universe is narrower than partisans often imagine: men, moderates, true independents, and Hispanic voters. These are the movable pieces on the board.

The battlefield, at least for now, is set. There are 36 targeted House races and seven key Senate races that will determine the balance of power.

When addressing the group, Fabrizio was not pessimistic, but he was not emotional either. He urged the team to prioritize niche podcasts and social media over national news interviews. He said paid media should be highly targeted — digital, demographic and data-driven — rather than mass broadcast or even cable buyouts. Facebook remains the leader in reaching voters, followed by Instagram and TikTok. The information ecosystem is fragmented and finite; Campaigns that pretend we are still in 2004, with its traditional atmosphere, are wasting money.

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The battlefield, at least for now, is set. there 36 targeted House races Seven key Senate races will determine the balance of power. The Senate calculations, as presented, favor Republicans unless something dramatic changes. One striking assertion is that the only way Republicans would lose their majority in the Senate is for Democrats to gain 50 seats in the House — a wave scenario of historic proportions, made difficult because redistricting has put the vast majority of House seats safely in the hands of one party or the other, barring a massive tsunami.

After Fabrizio came James Blair, the political czar of the White House, armed with a cold bucket of interesting history. He told the assembly that it is rare – very rare – that the president’s party does not lose a significant number of seats in the midterm elections.

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Blair referred to what happened recently Special elections in Tennessee 7th Congressional District As a cautionary and educational story. The race appeared headed for a loss until a late, powerful messaging and grassroots organizing campaign saved the seat for Republicans and produced lessons about what works and what doesn’t.

You can’t convince voters to believe wages have gone up, he said. They have to feel it. Economic statistics do not automatically translate into economic security, nor do they take priority over personal bank accounts and household budgets. And some good old-fashioned opposition research portraying Democratic candidates as out of touch with voters could work wonders.

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Perhaps the most telling moment of the evening came when… Team Trump Acknowledge the central truth of this presidency: Donald Trump will do what he wants to do. He will say what he wants to say. It will not be governed by slide decks, message arrays, or appeals from Republican candidates and strategists. Thus, the rest of the political apparatus must rely relentlessly on data and messaging – two separate but interconnected campaigns running in parallel: one instinctive and improvisational, the other disciplined and experimental.

Trump’s senior leadership expects Democrats to run largely on a “Stop Trump” message. History suggests that this is not a foolish approach. Opposition parties often succeed in midterm elections by nationalizing the election as a referendum on the president. But referendums cut both ways. If voters decide that the question is not “How do you feel about Donald Trump?” but “How do you feel about your cost of living?” The terrain changes.

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Ironically, for all the caricatures of chaos, arrogance and impetuosity surrounding Trumpworld, the Capitol Hill Club meeting was a sober and methodical session. Cabinet secretaries such as Scott Besanthoward Lutnick, Robert F. kennedy jrSean Duffy, along with his senior aides, attended not to take a position or communicate, but to listen.

No one in the room thought the midterm elections would be easy. No one suggested that the president’s party was immune to normal political rhythms and fluctuations. But they were not prepared for inevitable defeat either.

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White House officials acted as an attentive and cohesive team, one that understood the rules of the game and believed it could bend them.

In Washington, that is considered confidence.

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