Mamdani holds 21-point lead in NYC mayoral race ahead of Thursday debate

Before Thursday’s debate, a new Fox News poll showed that the Democratic candidate, Zahran Mamdani, He maintains a significant lead in the New York City mayoral race as voters see him best placed to handle the city’s most important problems. He also receives positive personal reviews and has more enthusiastic supporters who are committed to voting.

All of this gives the self-described democratic socialist a 21-point lead New York City Registered voters: 49% support Mamdani, while 28% support independent candidate Andrew Cuomo and 13% support Republican candidate Curtis Saliwa.

Mamdani rises above the 50% threshold among likely voters, receiving 52% support (28% for Cuomo, 14% for Saliwa).

Fox News poll: Voters dissatisfied with New York City’s direction, prefer Mamdani for mayor by wide margin

Independent candidate and current mayor Eric Adams has 2-3% support, although he withdrew from the race on September 28.

“Adams will appear on the ballot because he withdrew after the deadline to remove names,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, whose company Beacon Research is conducting the Fox News poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “We included him in the poll because some people will still vote for him, and those votes will continue to be counted.”

Support for Mamdani has increased since the Fox News poll in September, rising by 5 percentage points among likely voters and 4 points among registered voters.

The analysis below focuses on registered voters in New York City.

Mamdani’s strongest support comes from very liberal voters (78%), voters under 30 (67%), Democrats (63%), and women under 45 (62%).

to ComoThey are moderates (44%), voters over 65 (44%), women over 45 (42%), and independents (35%).

Among the small subset of Jewish voters, 42% support Cuomo, while nearly 38% support Mamdani and 13% support Saliwa.

Sliwa holds Republicans (60%) and President Donald Trump’s 2024 supporters (58%), while white voters without a college degree are split between the three major candidates (30% each).

More than half of nonwhite voters support Mamdani, including 51% of black voters and 52% of Hispanic voters, while nearly 3 in 10 support Cuomo.

Mamdani supporters were more enthusiastic (75% very or very) about the vote than were supporters of Sliwa (59%) or Cuomo (43%). More of his supporters are also certain they will vote for him (89%) than are supporters of Sliwa (82%) or Cuomo (75%).

Fox News poll: Capitalism is still more popular than socialism, yet a majority supports taxing the wealthy

Meanwhile, Mamdani’s supporters say they are voting for him rather than against his opponents (88% vs. 12%), while significant minorities of Cuomo (40%) and Sliwa (32%) supporters describe their vote as being against the other candidates.

“The interesting question is about turnout,” Shaw says. “Will voters who oppose Mamdani but are ambivalent about the other candidates hold up their noses and support Cuomo?”

Voters rank crime (25%), cost of living (20%), and housing (16%) as the most important problems facing the Big Apple. Nothing else reaches double digits, although homelessness is closer to 8%.

While that’s where things stood around September, the 12-point lead Cuomo previously enjoyed among crime-conscious voters has declined. Mamdani now leads among crime voters by five points and continues to lead among cost of living and housing voters.

Only 3% of New York City voters said this Illegal immigration As the biggest problem the city faces, however, there is no doubt about New Yorkers’ stance on ICE, with 66% believing it is too aggressive in their city’s deportation efforts.

When it comes to the candidate who can best handle the city’s problems, Mamdani has significant advantages. Between 40-49% say he can better handle the local economy/cost of living, housing, taxes and crime, while these numbers fall between 32-33% for Cuomo and 17-26% for Sliwa (his highest approval rating is 26% on crime).

Mamdani once again has the advantage of personality traits. Nearly two-thirds of respondents saying, “Cares about people like you,” “Honest and trustworthy,” and “Can bring about change” describe him very or somewhat well. As for Cuomo, fewer than 6 in 10 say he is sympathetic (57%), honest (50%), and can make a difference (53%), while Sliwa says 51%, 50%, and 43%, respectively.

The only exception is being a “strong leader,” with 63% saying that phrase describes Cuomo and 61% describing Mamdani. More than 4 in 10 say that Salwa is a strong leader (44%).

Since the September poll, all three candidates have seen their popularity increase: Mamdani led by eight points, as did Sliwa, while Cuomo led by five points. While Cuomo is viewed less favorably than Mamdani, he has reversed a net favorable rating of -5 points (45% favorable, 50% unfavorable) to +2 today (50-48%).

Trump’s favorable rating remained at 24%, while New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s approval rating rose two points to 55%.

New York Attorney General Letitia James, who was indicted on mortgage fraud charges on October 9, has a 59% favorable rating among New York City voters. On October 14, shortly after she was charged, she joined Hochul at a Mamdani campaign rally where she received a standing ovation. Her positivity rating is the highest of anyone tested, although she also had the highest unknown rate (11%).

This rise in positive reviews also applies to the city itself, with 42% satisfied with how things are going, up 5 points since September.

Another thing…

With the first phase of Trump The Middle East With the peace deal being implemented, the poll found that more voters in New York City support Palestinians than Israelis by 6 points, down from 8 points since September.

Trump signed the peace agreement on October 13. The survey was conducted from October 10 to 14.

Pro-Palestinians support Mamdani (70%) while pro-Israelis are split between Cuomo (39%), Mamdani (28%) and Sliwa (23%).

New York City: Click here to Cross tables and Top Line

This Fox News poll was conducted October 10-14, 2025, under joint supervision of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), and includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 New York City registered voters randomly selected from the statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (98) and cell phones (636) or completed the survey online by following a link received via text message (269). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a sampling error of ±3 percentage points. There was a subsample of 793 likely voters and the margin of sampling error was ±3.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results between subgroups is higher. Results between subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N = 100. In addition to sampling error, the wording and order of questions can affect the results. Sources for developing weight goals include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News analysis of voters, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to the age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that the demographics of respondents are representative of the number of registered voters. Likely voters are identified based on prior voting history and self-reported probability of voting.