Khamenei’s death raises questions about Trump’s China trip

BEIJING – Uncertainty is growing about the US president Donald TrumpA high-risk trip to China after Washington targeted a second foreign leader in two months.

Over the weekend, Trump announced joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran Its supreme leader was killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In early January, the United States also arrested Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their residence.

Analysts say these actions could complicate Trump’s high-risk trip to Beijing.

“president Xi Jinping “You will not feel comfortable about the death of Iran’s supreme leader,” said George Chen, a partner at the Asia Group, noting Beijing’s relatively good relations with Tehran and Caracas.

“How can Xi feel that everything is normal and fine and be ready to welcome Trump’s visit,” he asked [a] “Happy mood?” Chen added, “Investors should manage their expectations about what Trump could accomplish during his trip to China — if he keeps going.”

Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2, following the fragile trade truce with China reached in late October. This will be the first trip by a sitting US president since 2017.

But Beijing has not yet confirmed the dates.

Chinese Foreign Ministry on Sunday He condemned the killing of Khamenei She described it as a “dangerous violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security.” Beijing urged an immediate ceasefire, although it was less direct regarding the US role than it had previously been. After Maduro’s arrest.

“I am concerned that the American side may use Iran, if things go badly, to delay the trip,” said a foreign company executive who closely follows preparations for the meeting, and who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“I think it’s dangerous [of the trip falling apart] The executive added that the American side is more important than the Chinese side.

Prediction markets in the US indicated a higher likelihood of Trump’s trip being delayed.

As of late Monday morning, Polymarket showed a sharp decline in its prices Expectations of Trump’s visit to China By March 31, to 42%, from 83.9% on February 21, while bets on a visit by April 30 remained high at 81%.

Calci showed a slight decline in expectations Trump is scheduled to visit China by 2027Although it remained high by 91%.

While many analysts still expect the ride to continue, it is unclear how US companies will approach deal plans in the world’s second-largest economy.

Several US executives were expected to accompany Trump on his trip to Beijing, following a pattern of business delegations following leaders of different countries on their trips this year to China in an attempt to close deals.

“Before the attack on Iran, many US CEOs were already unwilling to go with Trump to China. Now the situation has become even more difficult,” said an active member of the US business community in China, who also requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The White House and China’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

The Chinese reading so far indicates an “unusually softer tone,” said Jack Li, an analyst at China Macro Group. Trump is expected to visit Beijing as planned, but is monitoring whether Washington signals restraint on arms sales to Taiwan.

The democratically autonomous island, which is claimed by Beijing, remains a central flashpoint in US-China relations.

Meanwhile, Trump told the British newspaper Daily Mail this US strikes on Iran may last four weeks – a point that Chinese state media highlighted on Monday morning. This time frame will extend to the scheduled start of his trip to China on March 31.

“If the conflict escalates into a regional war beyond what the United States originally planned, it is not impossible for Trump to delay the trip,” said Yu Su, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“However, I expect that Trump and… [Xi] “We’ll have a phone conversation about this at some point,” she said. Her basic view remains that Trump is pressing ahead with his trip to China later this month.

China this week begins an annual parliamentary meeting, where top diplomat Wang Yi usually speaks to the press. In mid-February, Wang told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference The United States and China should work to expand areas of cooperation.

In foreign policy, Beijing has prioritized its own interests by establishing bilateral relations while encouraging multilateral engagement. Official statements about previous meetings between the United States and China have indicated the need for this creates “conditions” To develop bilateral relations.

Dong Shaoping, a senior researcher at Renmin University of China, said that American actions in Iran have eroded trust between the two countries. While he still expects Trump and Xi to meet within a few weeks, he said he hopes the conflict does not spread to other countries in the Middle East.

Chinese state columnistNewtankingOn Monday, he described the “war” with Iran as more intense than the conflict in Ukraine, drawing many lessons. Among the many lessons learned from the development of events, the writer said that Khamenei’s death revealed that “traitors” can emerge from within, and that negotiations may hide the true intentions of the opponent, according to a CNBC translation of the article in Chinese.

If the Trump-Xi meeting goes as planned, it could provide an opportunity for broader peace talks while addressing tense relations between the United States and China.

“The issues they have to resolve, trade between China and the United States, are very important, and the meeting is scheduled to take place for a long time, so canceling it would be very radical at this point,” said Gary Dvorchak, managing director of Blueshirt Group.

He added, “I do not think that canceling the meeting for any reason will help the situation.”