Is the ‘big, beautiful’ deal in trouble?

Does the “large and rich” commercial deal fade in India and the United States?

With only days before the deadline on July 9 set by the administration of US President Donald Trump, the hopes of obtaining a temporary trade agreement between Delhi and Washington remain alive but increasingly intertwined in difficult bargaining.

Despite the White House press secretary Caroline Levitt He hinted that the deal was imminent, and Indian Finance Minister Nermalla Sitramman, that Delhi would welcome “a big, good and beautiful agreement” – in response to Trump’s claim that a commercial agreement with Delhi is coming and will “open” the Indian market – the negotiators remain detained in difficult discussions.

The main adhesion points continue, especially on agricultural access, car components and definitions on Indian steel.

Indian trade officials extended their residence in Washington for another round of talks, even with Delhi signs “Very large red lines” In protecting farm and dairy, pressure on the United States for the broader market openings. The tone is still optimistic – but the window appears to tension a narrowing deal.

“The following seven days can be determined whether India and the United States are settling on limited” small degrees “or moved away from the negotiating table-at least at the present time,” says Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade official who runs the World Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based research center.

The uncertainty depends on a few major flash points – no more controversial than agriculture.

Richard Rousseau, who tracks the Indian economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said.

For years, Washington has pushed more access to the farmer sector in India, and sees it as a major market. But India has He strongly protected himQuoting food security, livelihoods and interests for millions of young farmers.

“The second number is the non -transmitted barriers in India. Issues such as the growing” quality monitoring orders “group in India (QCO) are great obstacles to reaching the American market and may be difficult to deal with them useful in a commercial deal,” says Mr. Rousseau.

The United States has raised concerns about what it calls the growing and exhausting quality rules in India. More than 700 QCO – part of the “self -accredited India” batch – aims to curb low -quality imports and enhance local manufacturing. Suman Perry, a senior member of government research, Niti Ayog, also described these rules as “malicious intervention” that restrict imports and increase the costs of small and medium -sized industries.

The elephant in the room is farm exports. The agriculture trade in India and the United States remains modest at 8 billion dollars, as India exports rice, shrimp and spices, and the United States sends nuts, apples and lentils. But as commercial talks advance, Washington is looking forward to greater exports to farms – corn, soybeans, cotton and corn – to help narrow its trade deficit of $ 45 billion with India.

Experts fear that tariff privileges may pressure India to weaken the minimum support prices (MSP) and public purchases – the main protection that protects farmers from price cuts by ensuring fair prices and purchasing stable crops.

“There are no discounts in the customs tariffs of dairy products or major food pills such as rice and wheat, as the farm livelihoods are at stake. These groups are politically and economically sensitive, and affect more than 700 million people in the rural economy in India,” says Mr. Srivastava.

From the strange, the last Niti aayog paper recommends the customs tariff cuts on the imports of American farms – including rice, dairy, poultry, corn, apples, almonds, and soybeans GM – under a proposed commercial agreement for India and the United States. However, it is unclear whether the proposal reflects the official government thinking or remains a political proposal on paper.

“If the United States says” no deal “if India does not include reaching basic agriculture, it is clear that the American expectations have not been appointed properly. Any democratic elected government will have political limits for commercial policy options,” says Mr. Rousseau.

So what can happen with the deal now?

Experts like Mr. Srivastava believe that “the most likely result is a limited trade agreement” – designed after the MINI UK commercial deal was announced on May 8.

Under the proposed deal, India may reduce customs tariffs on a group of industrial goods – including cars, and American long -term demand – and provides limited agricultural access through customs tariff cuts and shares on selected products such as ethanol, almonds, walnuts, apples, raisins, Fukado, olive oil, lives and wine.

Beyond customs tariff cuts, the United States is likely to push India for widely commercial purchases – from oil and LNG to Boeing aircraft, helicopters and nuclear reactors. Washington may also seek to facilitate foreign direct investment in multi -branded retail trade, as it takes advantage of companies such as Amazon and Walmart, and relaxing rules on the re -manufactured goods.

“This” mini -round, “says Mr. Srivastava,” this is the mini -round, “if it is over, will focus on reducing the customs tariffs and strategic obligations, leaving the issues of the broader free trade agreement – including services trade, intellectual property rights and digital regulations – for future negotiation.”

Initially, the trade talks between India and the United States seemed to be based on a clear and fair vision.

“The two leaders [Trump and Modi] I put a simple concept at the top of the first of them this year. The United States will focus on dense capital goods, while India will focus on heavy employment elements, “says Mr. Rousseau. But it seems that things have changed since then.

If the conversations collapsed, experts believe that Trump is unlikely to restore the acute tariff rate by 26 % on India. Instead, the basic tariff may apply to 10 % to most Indian imports, as well as the current MFN prices (MFN or the most preferred nation’s rate is the lowest tariff enjoyed by a member of the World Trade Organization to another member of the World Trade Organization).

While 57 countries faced these drawings in April, the United Kingdom only got a deal so far. Specifically targeting India may seem unfair. “He is still, with Trump, surprises cannot be excluded,” says Mr. Srivastava.