Iran military strike possible but could strain defense systems, insiders say

American and Israeli coordination also took place Strikes on Iran continueCurrent and former defense officials say that while a limited strike lasting several days is possible, sustaining a broader confrontation — one involving hundreds of incoming missiles — is far more complex.

The United States and Israel carried out a mission known as Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iranian leadership and military sites on Saturday. Its duration is still unclear, but the campaign may last for several days, according to American officials.

Sustaining operations beyond the initial window is a more complex challenge – one shaped by “zero-sum” competition for missile defense stocks between the Middle East and Europe.

Officials and analysts warn that some US missile and interceptor stockpiles designated for air defense have been severely reduced due to the relentless pace of recent operations. The Pentagon’s strategic dilemma is that the systems needed To protect American bases from Iranian retaliation The same ones that are being exhausted by the defense of Ukraine and the continued protection of Israel.

Iran has already launched counterattacks near US sites in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan, with several host governments saying their air defense systems intercepted the incoming projectiles. No deaths or injuries among US service members had been reported as of Saturday, a US official told Fox News Digital.

US authorities have not publicly published casualty figures or official damage assessments.

During the violent conflict between Iran and Israel in June 2025, US forces launched more than 150 high-altitude defensive interceptor missiles — nearly a quarter of the total global stockpile — and a large number of standard ship-mounted missiles to protect allies, according to published defense assessments.

This shortage is largely due to the dual pressure of supplying Russian cruise missiles to Ukraine and increasing batteries to the Middle East. Analysts say it could take more than a year to renew these advanced systems, because production lines are optimized for peacetime and cannot be scaled up overnight.

The carrier strike group under the command of the USS Gerald R. Ford is in the Middle East to support the buildup amid tensions with Iran. (U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 6th Fleet/Handout via Reuters)

Independent groups have noted that the United States currently produces approximately 600 to 650 Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles per year, reflecting recent decades of production capacity boosts. Analysts say that in a high-intensity war with a nearby adversary like Iran – where multiple interceptors are often used to defeat a single missile – the equivalent of an entire year’s production could be consumed in a matter of weeks, especially after recent cuts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“The War Department has everything it needs to carry out any mission at a time and place of the president’s choosing and on any schedule,” Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in response to questions about readiness.

Retired Air Force Gen. Charles Wald, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, said the United States retains the ability to increase conventional offensive munitions in the region and tap previously stored stockpiles if a campaign is ordered.

“From a conventional ammunition standpoint, we can always move more weapons from around the world,” Wald told Fox News Digital. “There are a lot of weapons stored there with that type of mission in mind.”

He admitted that the biggest concern lies in the defensive aspect.

“The issue will be about defensive weapons — the Patriot, the SM-3, and the Arrow system in Israel,” Wald said. “You can never have enough defense.”

Regional analysts warn that in the event of continued missile exchanges, the stockpile of interceptor missiles – not offensive weapons – could become the limiting constraint.

“There is a limit to the number of THAAD missiles that can be used,” Israeli defense analyst Ehud Elam said. “These are not systems you can reproduce overnight.”

Iran is believed to possess between 1,500 and 2,000 ballistic missiles, as well as drones and short-range missiles capable of striking US bases and energy infrastructure in the Gulf.

A US Army high-altitude defensive weapon system at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam in October 2017. (Reuters/US Army/Captain Adan Cazarez)

Many experts also pointed to the psychological impact of recent US operations.

The rapid Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela in January 2026 and the 12-day exchange with Iran in the summer of 2025 bolstered confidence in US military capability. However, one former defense official cautioned that success in these narrow-scope missions could create a false sense of momentum toward action in more complex scenarios.

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“Iran is a completely different problem,” the official said. It is a large, heavily armed country with extensive missile forces and regional proxy networks that does not resemble a short surgery.

The father acknowledged this danger.

“You don’t want to make people confident that you’re not taking into account the risks. Things won’t be as clean or pure as Venezuela, for example, or the 12-day war.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared in the photo sitting next to a senior military official in Iran. (Getty Images)

Even as strikes continue, officials warn that retaliation against Iran and its network of allied militias could widen the scope of the conflict. Iranian ballistic missiles and drones — along with allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen — have led to missile launches against US bases and Gulf partners, according to defense reports.

Experts say the 2025 conflict underscored how quickly escalation can test defense systems and political will.

“Once these things break, you have the next,” a former official said, highlighting the risk that missiles and actions by proxies could quickly expand the scope of a limited U.S. strike.

Wald warned that even a successful military phase would not eliminate political uncertainty.

“Bombing Iran will not lead to regime change,” he added, stressing that air power can lead to a deterioration in capabilities but does not guarantee a stable political outcome.

Besides the immediate exchange, officials say the economic consequences could be just as important. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and even a limited disruption could send global energy markets rising sharply.

For Washington, strategic calculations extend beyond the Middle East. China remains the main long-term competitor, with the war in Ukraine already consuming significant resources.

A sustainable regional conflict will depend on naval assets and air defense systems that planners must also take into account for potential future contingencies in Taiwan or North Korea.

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Officials familiar with the president’s internal deliberations say Donald Trump He sought a high degree of confidence in how the Iran emergency would unfold — a standard that becomes difficult to achieve in scenarios involving escalation and political fallout.

Fox News Digital has reached out to the White House for comment.

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