Iran may ‘lash out harder’ following Khamenei’s death

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is raising concerns that Washington’s push for regime change in Iran, and Tehran’s retaliation, could destabilize regions from the Gulf to Europe, leaving world leaders scrambling to assess the repercussions.

Launched by the United States and Israel Common strikes on Iran over the weekend, killing the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparking waves of attacks by Tehran across the region.

President Donald Trump made clear in a video message on Saturday after the first wave of US-Israeli strikes on Iran that his goal was “to eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime, an evil group of powerful and terrible people.”

Geopolitical analysts warned that Saturday’s strikes could mark the start of an ongoing military campaign aimed at dismantling the Iranian regime, as the United States seeks to assert its dominance over the world’s most important oil production region.

“The scale of the strikes launched by the United States and Israel, coupled with the clear goal of regime change in Iran, suggests that the military conflict may escalate quickly and unpredictably,” said Rickson Ryu, president of The Asia Group, a business consulting firm. He added: “There is a significant immediate risk of regional and perhaps global escalation, as Iran may now use any available option to respond.”

“Previous strikes targeted the nuclear weapons program,” said David Selby, a professor of military history at Cornell University. A 12-day war in June last year When the United States and Israel launched air strikes, they destroyed three major Iranian nuclear sites.

“But this mission will be much broader, targeting command and control, headquarters and command, and the army and secret police in general,” Selby said. “Since there does not appear to be a US ground campaign in the near future, the goal is to overthrow the regime domestically, either via a popular uprising or a palace coup.”

Selby warned that Iran could respond with retaliatory attacks, including missile attacks on Israeli and American military bases and ships in the Persian Gulf, as well as potential terrorist operations throughout the Middle East, Europe and the United States.

“If the regime feels threatened, it will attack more aggressively than it would have if it thought it could survive the attacks,” Selby said.

The recent fire has already spread to other parts of the Gulf region. Iranian missiles targeted Israel and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan, all of which have air bases containing US assets.

“Years of Iranian détente with the Gulf may be over,” said Aisha Chowdhury, director of the Asia Group.

China, which is considered an important economic lifeline for Iran, was purchased amid severe Western sanctions more than 80% of oil shipped to Tehran in 2025, representing 13.5% of the total crude oil imported by China by sea. Iran has also been a vital supplier of military drones and missiles to aid Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine.

Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, said that years of brutal war in Ukraine had weakened Russia’s ability to project power beyond its borders.

With its military exhausted and its economy under constant pressure from Western sanctions, Moscow’s influence in the Middle East is expected to diminish further, Gerken added.

But Beijing refrained from providing strong support to Iran as Washington continued to strengthen its military presence in the Gulf in the period leading up to the attack. Instead, it focused on encouraging diplomacy and regional security.

Analysts are watching for possible signs of whether this latest conflict in the Middle East could risk derailing diplomatic engagement between the United States and China and even President Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing later this month.

In a statement on Saturday evening, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman urged the United States and Israel to “immediately stop military actions” in the region and restore dialogue, calling for “respect for Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed issues including Iran, Taiwan and trade in a phone call on February 4. “Beijing may seek concessions on issues directly linked to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade, in exchange for its significantly toned-down messaging on Iran,” said Ahmed Aboudah, a fellow at Chatham House, a London-based policy think tank.

Ironically, a weak Iran may suit Chinese interests. “The weaker the Iranian regime becomes, whether from American or Israeli military strikes or internal unrest, the more dependent it becomes on China diplomatically, economically, and technologically,” Aboudah said.

In the long term, China is likely to feel pressure to assert its dominance in the region. “China will need to project strength in its region to deter US military action and create a sphere of influence,” Aboudouh said, though current oil supply vulnerabilities may limit its options.

Military operations appear to have destroyed, at least for now, any remaining possibility of reaching an agreement Negotiated settlement Regarding the Iranian nuclear program.

The United States and Iran participated in three rounds of indirect talks, with a focus on reaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and Washington lifting economic sanctions on the country.

With the Iranian regime in a moment of “critical weakness,” Washington and Jerusalem were unable to obtain denuclearization and disarmament guarantees from Tehran, Gerken said, and decided they “could not miss the opportunity to reshape the region.”