How Trump’s ‘secondary tariffs’ on Russia could hit global economy

Although it is the most approval of the world, Russia has continued to use its vast energy in energy to finance its war in Ukraine.

US President Donald Trump hopes to change this. He has It announced that a new secondary tariff is comprehensive It will affect any country that is still trading with Russia if a ceasefire with Ukraine is not agreed on Friday, August 8.

You will see secondary definitions of goods from any country that is trading with Russia you face 100 % tax When it is imported to the United States.

Oil and gas are the largest exports in Russia, and includes the largest customers of Moscow, India and Turkey.

“I used trade for many things, but it is great to settle wars,” Trump said last month.

This will not be the first time that the Trump administration has imposed secondary tariffs, which are also found to punish Venezuelan oil buyers.

However, their use against Russia will have much greater effects on the global economy.

Russia is still the third largest oil producer in the world, behind the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States itself only. But its shipments decreased this year, according to Bloomberg analysis From the ship tracking data.

“The main channel with which the main channel can affect Russian energy buyers on the global economy through the level of energy prices,” says Kiran Tombins of economics consulting in the economy.

If customs duties succeed, Russian oil and gas flow will cut into the global markets.

With fewer supply, prices could rise, just as it did when Russia has launched a large -scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This led to an increase in inflation around the world. President Trump says he is not concerned about US oil production.

Mr. TOMPKINS notes that, this time, there are also other reasons for a proposal to influence prices will not be noticeable.

He explains that “the current background is one where OPEC+ [the group of major oil producing countries and its allies] You have a great backup capacity to benefit from. “

Russia has invented a complete system to avoid current sanctions, which may be useful to help its commercial partners avoid Trump’s secondary definitions.

For example, the so -called “shadow fleet” – which consists of hundreds of hundreds of mysterious ownership – can be used to hide the origin of Russian source oil and gas.

“The maintenance of sanctions is a great task like imposing sanctions in the first place,” says the United States of Penalt expert from Colombia.

“This is because the party that is punished is taking steps to evade it.”

Since the full invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India was the second largest buyer of Russian oil, According to the Center for Energy and Energy Research and Air.

President Trump told us that President Trump CNBC on Tuesday “they are nourishing the war machine. If they would do so, I will not be happy.”

If secondary sanctions become valid, American companies will have to purchase goods from India to pay an import tax by 100 % – or a tariff – when these products reach the beaches of the United States.

The idea is that it makes these goods expensive to the extent that American companies will choose to buy them cheaper than elsewhere, which leads to the lost revenue for India.

This, in turn, is supposed to deter India from buying Russian oil. And if Russia leaves unable to sell oil elsewhere because other countries face the same impasse, it will have less money to finance the war in Ukraine.

One of the ways that Americans can set higher prices as a result of the new secondary tariffs in purchasing mobile phones from India.

The American company Apple moves a lot from iPhone Production of India In particular, the manufacture of phones you want to sell in the United States.

If these products are subject to new definitions, prices may be doubled for consumers. This is because the tariff that is paid by companies that import goods – and those companies tend to pass most, if not all, from their costs to their customers.

Imports of the United States from India are already facing a 25 % tariff as part of disposal of the broader trade of President Trump, and CNBC told that the number can be raised “very significantly.”

The government of India accused the United States of double standards, noting that Washington’s trade with Russia continued.

The vast majority of this trade consists of American imports of India, which has a little more than $ 3 billion (2.2 billion pounds) last year – although this is only 10 % of 2021 levels.

This trade dominates the purchases of raw materials for raw materials for nuclear energy and fertilizers. Russia is the main global supplier of both.

China is buying the most Russian oil, and President Trump’s decision will be to impose a secondary tariff on Chinese goods more difficult to fulfill it.

This is because the US imports from China are five times the ones in India, and many of these imports are consumer goods such as games, clothes and electronics.

Secondary definitions aimed at Beijing will also risk disturbing a lot The broader negotiation of trade Among the largest economy in the world that Trump has been following since his first term in his post.

Professor Simon Felit of the IMD College of Business Administration says: “This type of escalation is unlikely to raise excessive Chinese escalation.”

He explains that it will be “very difficult” to exfoliate the Chinese away from the Russians without a good reason, given the extent of the presidents ’association I worked together In recent years.

Moreover, the last time Trump tried to use a triple -numbers tariff against China, it was found that it does not succeed – because it cuts all trade between the two countries.

Another such step that can add to inflationary pressures in the United States, which Trump has long pledged to treat.

This may also cost huge sums of manufacturing functions in China, at a time when its economy is already struggling on several fronts.

The analysis conducted by the Center for Clear Research and Air in Finland shows that the European Union and Turkey are also among the largest Russian energy buyers.

Before 2022, the European Union was the first destination for the export of Russia, although this has decreased significantly since the complete invasion of Ukraine. Brussels recently agreed to buy a lot More energy from the United StatesBut some imports from Russia remain.

In June, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Lin, She confessed to the problemHe said, “Russia has repeatedly tried to blackmail us with an energy supply weapon” because it has made plans to end imports by the end of 2027.

The commercial relationship of the United States of America is the largest in the world, and the couple has just negotiated on new commercial conditions Which will witness a 15 % tariff application to most European Union exports to the United States.

Many in the European Union I criticized that dealSaying that the definitions will harm European exporters.

Now they are also afraid that secondary sanctions on the European Union can cause more harm. Adding a 100 % tariff to buy Russian energy can significantly reduce the amount of goods sold by the European Union to the United States.

However, the largest sellers include medicines and machines, which may be difficult to obtain from another place – which means that Americans have no choice but to pay more.

Russia’s economy has so far proven flexibility since it started the full invasion of Ukraine, as it increased by 4.3 % last year.

However, the Minister of Economy Maxim Rethnikov Recently The country was “about” the recession after a period of “high temperature”. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects only 0.9 % growth this year.

If secondary sanctions succeed in reducing the demand for exports, they will pay Russia near the recession.

It is difficult to know the exact impact of the war on the Russian economy, because Moscow has prevented a large amount of economic data from spreading it since the full invasion – including oil and gas production.

About a third of Russian government spending is funded by oil and gas money, but exports have decreased.

Meanwhile, Putin is directing a greater share of spending towards defense more than any time since the Cold War. Defense spending is believed to have reached 6.3 % of GDP.

On the contrary, Ukraine spends 26 % of the value of its economy far from the war. The difference explains the reason for its president’s request, Volodimir Zelinski, over and over again, external assistance from his allies.

Trump’s tariff aims to help Zelensky by reducing the amount of money flowing to Russia, and it hopes to put an end to death, suffering and destruction in Ukraine.