Experts warn Maduro’s fall could unleash a successor ‘even worse’

As the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Venezuela, experts warn that the fall of Nicolas Maduro could open the door to a successor “worse” than the dictator himself, unleashing a landscape dominated by drug cartels, guerrilla factions and armed warlords who have been stationed across Venezuela for decades.

Today’s Venezuela is less a centralized dictatorship and more a patchwork of criminal regions controlled by gangs, Colombian rebels, and militias allied with the regime. US policy now faces not just Maduro, but an entrenched ecosystem of non-state armed groups that could seize power in a post-Maduro vacuum, analysts told Fox News Digital.

The path is now bilateral, said Roxana Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former US national security official who focuses on Latin America.

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Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro waves his sword during an event at the military academy in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, November 25, 2025. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)

“In my view, what comes next will depend to a large extent on the direction in which this American pressure campaign is headed,” Vigil said. “If things go in the direction of escalation and conflict, it means there will be very little control – or even less ability to influence what comes next.”

Experts say the danger is not just a stronger version of Maduro, but the emergence of armed actors who already control large swaths of Venezuelan territory. An uncontrolled collapse could unleash something much more dangerous than the current regime, Vigil said. “You could have someone worse than Maduro,” she said.

These power centers include some of the most violent criminal gangs in the Western Hemisphere, Jason Marczak, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America, told Fox News Digital.

Bolivarian National Police fire tear gas at opposition demonstrators in Caracas, Venezuela, Saturday, February 15, 2014. Venezuelan security forces backed by water tanks and tear gas dispersed groups of anti-government protesters who tried to block a main highway in Caracas on Saturday evening. (AP Photo/Alejandro Segarra)

“It is hard to imagine things getting worse under Nicolás Maduro. But what is important is not just Maduro gone, but those around him – those who will merely be the perpetrators of more of the injustices that Maduro presents – so that none of them are allowed to come to power.”

If opposition leaders Maria Corina Machado or Edmundo Gonzalez fail to fill the void in a post-Maduro Venezuela, experts point to a crowded field of dangerous actors who might try to seize power if Maduro suddenly falls.

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Diosdado Cabello

Diosdado Cabello emerges as the most feared and influential figure in the regime. No people He describes him as Chavismo’s longtime second-in-command, with broad control over the party’s apparatus and propaganda apparatus. His authority extends from internal political enforcement to the interior and justice portfolios.

It was Capello Sanctioned by the US Treasury Department In 2018 on charges of corruption, money laundering, embezzlement, and connection to drug trafficking networks within the country. Reuters reports documented how the United States later increased rewards for information leading to his arrest as part of broader efforts to target the Cartel de los Soles. Analysts say a government headed by Cabello could consolidate the power of the party, state security forces and control of the media under the leadership of a single hardliner.

Interior and Justice Minister Diosdado Cabello (center) talks with National Assembly Speaker Jorge Rodriguez (left) as Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez (right) looks on at Simón Bolívar International Airport on July 18, 2025, in Caracas, Venezuela. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)

Jorge Rodriguez

Jorge Rodriguez, president of the National Assembly and one of Maduro’s closest politicians, is another prominent figure in any succession scenario. La Nacion newspaper highlights his prominent position within the ruling elite, noting his roles as mayor, minister of communications, and key strategist.

The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Rodriguez for his actions that undermine democratic institutions, according to a report Atlantic Council Summary Designated by the Office of Foreign Assets Control. Experts warn that Rodriguez could impose a more technocratic — but no less authoritarian — version of Chavismo, pairing negotiation skills with control over electoral processes and state information systems.

Vladimir Padrino Lopez

La Nacion newspaper portrays Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Venezuela’s long-serving defense minister, as the backbone of the military establishment and the guarantor of Maduro’s survival. Because of him, the armed forces remain loyal to him and form an axis of power between Padrino and Maduro.

The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Padrino Lopez as part of Maduro’s inner circle for supporting an authoritarian regime and enabling repression. Observers warn that if Padrino takes leadership, Venezuela could shift toward a more militarized model — one in which political power is openly integrated with military command structures.

Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Venezuelan Minister of Defense, speaks during a press conference accompanied by the senior military leadership of the Ministry of Defense in Caracas, Venezuela, on Thursday, January 24, 2019. (Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Delcy Rodriguez

Delcy Rodriguez, Vice President of Venezuela, is described as a central political player within the regime and part of the powerful ruling duo with her brother Jorge. Its influence extends to institutional, economic and diplomatic spheres. The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Rodriguez as part of Maduro’s inner circle for helping her dismantle democratic rule, and the European Union also includes it among measures related to human rights violations and erosion of the rule of law.

Analysts point out that Rodriguez has increasingly taken control of vital sectors, including the oil industry, placing her at the center of the murky revenue structures that support the regime. They warn that the transformation she is leading could lead to a further tightening of state control over the economy and political apparatus.

Celia Flores, wife of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, speaks to the media during a simulation of the government’s official vote on July 30 to choose a new assembly, in Caracas, Venezuela, July 16, 2017. Marco Bello/Reuters

Flores cilia

Celia Flores, the first lady and a longtime Chavista power broker, completes the circle of figures identified by La Nacion newspaper as essential to Maduro’s grip on power. Flores held senior positions, including President of the National Assembly, Prosecutor General, and member of the leadership of the United Socialist Party.

The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Flores in 2018 as part of broader measures targeting Maduro’s inner circle and its corruption networks, a move widely reported by Reuters. Her family members also faced penalties or indictments related to drug cases. Analysts say Flores’ political influence within the party and the legal system makes her a pivotal player in any succession calculations.

In this photo taken on April 13, 2019, Gen. Ivan Hernandez Dalla (left), head of the Presidential Guard and Military Counterintelligence, and Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez (right), in Caracas, Venezuela. (Ariana Cubelos/AP)

Ivan Hernandez Dalla

Hernández Dalla heads the Venezuelan military counterintelligence service (DGCIM) and commands the Presidential Guard, making him one of the most feared figures in the security service. His control over internal repression gives him significant leverage in any power struggle. He was designated by the State Department in 2019 for involvement in serious human rights violations.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) wrote that under his command “abuses reportedly committed by DGCIM and SEBIN include brutal beatings, suffocation, cutting of the soles of the feet with razor blades, electric shocks, and death threats.”

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Marczak and Vigil believe Washington’s next moves — and whether it leads negotiations or escalation — will determine whether Venezuela moves toward democracy or toward something worse.

As Marczak puts it: “Winning does not just mean the departure of Nicolas Maduro… Winning is actually a transition to democratic forces.”