Drug crackdown or regime change

Over the course of two months, the US military has been building up a force of warships, fighter planes, bombers, Marines, drones and spy planes in the Caribbean Sea. This is the largest outbreak there in decades.

B-52 long-range bomber aircraft conducted “attack bomber demonstrations” off the coast of Venezuela. Trump has authorized the deployment of the CIA to Venezuela and the world’s largest aircraft carrier is being sent to the region.

The United States says it has killed dozens of people in raids on small ships coming from Venezuela that it claims are carrying “narcotics” and “narco-terrorists,” without providing evidence or details about who was on board.

The attacks sparked condemnation in the region, and experts questioned their legitimacy. It is being sold by the United States as a war on drug trafficking, but all signs point to this being in fact a fear campaign seeking to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power.

“It’s about regime change,” says Dr. Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at think tank Chatham House. “Maybe they won’t invade, and the hope is that it’s about sending signals.”

He says the military buildup is a show of force aimed at “striking fear” in the hearts of the Venezuelan military and Maduro’s inner circle so that they will move against him.

BBC Verify monitors publicly available tracking information from US ships and aircraft in the region – along with satellite images and images on social media – to try to build a picture of where Trump’s forces are located.

Deployment has changed, so we monitor the area regularly for updates.

As of October 23, we had identified 10 US military vessels in the area, including guided missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships, and oil tankers to refuel ships at sea.

It is no secret that the US administration, especially Secretary of State Marco Rubio, wants to see Maduro ousted.

Earlier this year, he told Fox News that Maduro was a “terrible dictator,” and when asked if he was demanding Maduro’s departure, he added: “We will work on this policy.”

But even for outspoken critics of Maduro like Rubio, it is difficult to explicitly call for regime change with the support of the military establishment – ​​something members of the Venezuelan opposition have long called for.

Donald Trump campaigned against regime change in 2016, vowing to “stop racing to topple foreign regimes,” and more recently condemning engagement in “forever wars.”

The United States does not recognize Maduro as President of Venezuela, after the last elections in 2024 were widely rejected internationally, and by the opposition in Venezuela, as neither free nor fair. The US Embassy in Caracas was closed during Trump’s first term in 2019.

The United States has raised its reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, which represents an incentive for those within his loyal inner circle to extradite him. But it did not result in any defections.

Venezuelan law professor and senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ National Security Research Center, José Ignacio Hernandez, says the $50 million represents “nothing” to Venezuelan elites.

There is a lot of money to be made through corruption within an oil-rich country like Venezuela. Former Treasury chief Alejandro Andrade took $1 billion in bribes before his conviction.

Many analysts agree that the Venezuelan military will be key to any regime change, but in order to turn against Maduro and oust him, they will likely also want promises of immunity from prosecution.

“They will think, one way or another, that I am involved in criminal activities as well,” Hernandez adds.

Michael Albertus, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who publishes widely on Latin America, is not convinced that a mere $500 million reward will persuade Maduro’s inner circle to extradite him.

He added, “Autocratic leaders are always suspicious, even of their inner circle, and for this reason they create mechanisms to monitor them and ensure their loyalty.”

The economic sanctions imposed on Venezuela exacerbated the already severe economic crisis, but they did not succeed in convincing senior figures to turn against their president.

Donald Trump declared that this was a war on drug traffickers, and said that one of the ships the US struck, on October 16, was “mostly loaded with fentanyl.”

But fentanyl is primarily produced in Mexico — not South America — and enters the United States through the southern border.

“It’s not about drugs,” says Dr. Sabatini. “But he chose the language of the Venezuelan opposition that says this is not just a dictatorship — this is a criminal regime.”

Since 2020, the US Department of Justice has accused President Maduro of leading a drug trafficking and narco-terrorism organization, which he denies. Trump said he allowed the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela in part because of “drugs coming” from Venezuela.

Venezuela does not produce significant amounts of cocaine, especially Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. Some of the cocaine is smuggled through Venezuela, whose government claims it is cracking down.

The US Drug Enforcement Administration’s 2025 report says 84% ​​of cocaine seized in the US comes from Colombia, and mentions other countries but not Venezuela in its cocaine section.

The first seven strikes were carried out in the Caribbean, which is not a major sea route for drug trafficking compared to the Pacific, where subsequent strikes were carried out.

The United States did not provide details on the evidence it has about Maduro leading a drug trafficking organization. Maduro has repeatedly denied these accusations, and for his part accuses the United States of imperialism and exacerbating the economic crisis in the country through sanctions.

There are known cases of accusations against those close to him.

In 2016, a New York federal court convicted two of his wife’s nephews for conspiring to import cocaine into the United States. They planned to use some of the money to fund his wife’s political campaign, the case said. They were later released under a prisoner exchange agreement with the United States.

The Pentagon ordered the deployment of an aircraft carrier battle group to the region.

They include the USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the world.

In addition to the U.S. ships we tracked around Puerto Rico — where the United States has a military base — satellite images also showed two ships about 75 miles (123 km) east of Trinidad and Tobago.

One was the guided-missile cruiser, USS Lake Erie.

The other ship appears to be the MV Ocean Trader, according to Bradley Martin, a former US Navy captain who is now a senior policy fellow at the RAND Corp.

This is a converted cargo ship designed to support special forces missions while integrating with commercial traffic. It can contain drones, helicopters and small boats.

There are a wide range of missions it can support, including reconnaissance to prepare for strikes. But Mr. Martin stresses that its presence “does not necessarily mean that this type of activity is being carried out or planned.”

Military analysts pointed out that intercepting drugs at sea does not require a force as large as the current American force.

The US has also strengthened its air presence in the region – the BBC has identified a number of US military aircraft passing through Puerto Rico.

A satellite image taken on October 17 shows F-35 fighter jets on the runway, possibly F-35Bs, says Stu Ray, a senior analyst at McKenzie Intelligence Services.

These are highly advanced stealth aircraft with short take-off and vertical landing capabilities.

On social media, a private jet pilot shared a video of an MQ-9 Reaper drone, filmed at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Puerto Rico.

The United States has used it to carry out attacks and surveillance operations in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Mali.

Earlier in October, BBC Verify spotted three B-52 bombers flying across the Caribbean and off the coast of Venezuela.

The US Air Force later confirmed that the aircraft had participated in a “bomb attack demonstration”.

Flights of B1 bombers and P-8 Poseidon spy planes were also seen on aircraft tracking platforms.

Images posted on social media also showed military helicopters operating off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago.

Some of these aircraft are Boeing MH-6M Little Birds – nicknamed “killer eggs” – used by US Special Forces.

When asked whether the CIA had been given the authority to eliminate Maduro, Donald Trump dodged the question and said the answer would be “ridiculous.”

He also said that the United States is “looking to the ground now,” referring to possible military operations on Venezuelan territory.

The CIA is viewed by many in Latin America with great suspicion because of its long history of covert interventions, attempts at regime change, and support for former right-wing military dictatorships, particularly in Chile and Brazil.

CIA covert work can take “many forms,” ​​said Ned Price, deputy US representative to the United Nations and a former senior CIA analyst and senior State Department adviser.

“It could be information operations. It could be sabotage operations. It could be financing opposition parties. It could go as far as overthrowing the regime. There are a lot of options between the low-level and the high-level option.”

This may include using agents to target trafficking suspects within Venezuela. By the US definition, this could include Maduro himself.

Dr. Sabatini says that because Venezuela is not a major drug production point, there are no cocaine or fentanyl labs to “eliminate,” but there are airstrips or ports that the United States could target.

“If he wanted to be aggressive, he could send a missile into a military barracks. There is very good intelligence about the involvement of certain sectors of the military in cocaine trafficking.”

Or it could be a “smash-and-grab situation,” he points out, as they try to arrest Maduro or some of his aides and bring them to justice in the United States.

The big question, he argues, is how long Trump would be willing to keep so many US assets in the Caribbean.

If the main purpose of this military buildup is to threaten Maduro, it is unclear whether that is enough to incite defections.

It is difficult to know whether this amounts to an actual attempt to overthrow the Maduro regime by force.