China September exports beat expectations, imports rise at fastest pace since April 2024

China’s exports rose at the fastest pace in six months in September, while imports posted their strongest gains in more than a year, even as a trade deal with the United States remains elusive.

Chinese customs data showed on Monday that exports grew 8.3% in September in dollar terms from a year earlier, beating estimates of a 7.1% rise by economists polled by Reuters and a rebound from August lowest level in six months.

Imports jumped 7.4 percent last month from a year ago, sharply exceeding Reuters estimates of 1.5 percent growth, recording the strongest level since April 2024, according to London Stock Exchange data.

China’s exports to the United States fell by 27% in September, while imports fell by 16% from a year earlier. Beijing’s imports from the United States have fallen by double digits year-on-year every month since April.

Beijing’s trade surplus with the United States declined in the first nine months to $208.6 billion, according to official data, compared to $25.8 billion during the same period last year.

The double-digit decline in US-bound shipments was largely offset by sharp increases in exports to other markets. Exports to ASEAN, the European Union and Africa rose by 15.6%, 10.4% and 56.4%, respectively.

Tensions between Beijing and Washington have flared again in recent days as the two sides traded barbs and stepped up their own restrictions, threatening to undermine progress made after several rounds of bilateral trade talks this year.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose an additional 100% tax on Chinese exports and tighten export controls on critical software. Meanwhile, Beijing has expanded restrictions on exports of rare earth elements – although some will not take effect until November – and expanded its blacklist of “unreliable entities” to include… Chip consulting firm TechInsights. Authorities have also opened a new antitrust investigation into the US semiconductor manufacturing giant Qualcomm.

Additional tariffs on U.S. imports from China, if combined with the current average tariff of about 55%, could raise total tariffs to more than 150%, effectively causing a trade embargo, said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at political risk consultancy Teneo.

“China is likely to reciprocate, and bilateral trade will slow significantly,” Wildau added.

The two sides threatened to impose fees on the other party’s ships for docking in their ports, and these fees are scheduled to take effect on the same day, October 14. Chinese duties will start at 400 yuan ($56) per tonThis is consistent with what Washington imposed.

The United States only constitutes 0.1% of the global shipbuilding industry,compared to 53.3% for ChinaAccording to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Chinese customs spokesman Liu Daliang said at a press conference on Monday that Beijing hopes the United States realizes it is taking the wrong approach by increasing port fees and urged Washington to return to dialogue and negotiations.

Liu added that new tariffs imposed by several countries this year have hurt businesses and disrupted the global economy, saying that China remains committed to supporting multilateral trade.

The reluctance of China – the world’s largest importer of soybeans – to resume purchases of US crops has weakened hopes of reaching a trade agreement.

Trump said earlier this month that He expressed his hope to put pressure on the Chinese President At their scheduled meeting in late October to end the months-long moratorium on soybean purchases from the United States.

Chinese soybean imports rose 13% in September from a year earlier, according to official data, although details on the sources of these crops were not immediately available.

China’s exports of rare earth elements fell by 30% compared to the previous month, reaching 4,000 tons in September. Earlier this month, in Beijing It tightened its grip on important minerals By adding five new items to the watch list and increasing scrutiny of foreign companies seeking access to the material.

If fully implemented, the rules could have a major impact because they require global chip companies such as Nvidia, TSMC and Intel to obtain licenses from Chinese regulators to sell chips anywhere in the world, Wildau said.

China The Ministry of Commerce said earlier on Sunday He called on the United States to withdraw its threats to impose tariffs, and urged further talks to resolve outstanding trade issues.

“Threatening high tariffs at every turn is not the right way to get along with China,” the Commerce Department said. “If the United States continues on its own path, China will resolutely take similar measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests,” he added.

Vice Minister of Customs Wang Jun said at a press conference on Monday that stabilizing trade in the fourth quarter will be a challenge due to the complex external environment and the high base effect of last year.

China will likely have to deepen ties with other markets, which could provide greater access to its trading partners, said Timur Beg, chief economist at DBS Bank. He added: “Countries wishing to do business with China are likely to find a more favorable export environment in the coming years.”

Total domestic tourism trips during the eight-day holiday that ended on October 8 generated revenues amounting to $113.6 billion. A growth of 7.6% over last year But it is slowing from an 8% rise over another holiday in May. Average spending per trip was also about 3% lower than in 2019 before the pandemic, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

Economists expect contraction in both the Producer Price Index and CPI – due to be released on Wednesday – to continue in September, with the Producer Price Index down 2.3% and the CPI down 0.1% from a year earlier, according to LSEG data.

China’s trade surplus last month reached $90.5 billion, up from $90.5 billion. $81.7 billion In September last year, according to customs data.