Can Hezbollah’s shadow economy be dismantled?

Even a few months ago, it was car from Beirut International Airport on the southern suburbs of the usual Lebanese capital to clarify a set of pro -Iranian propaganda and Hezbollah.

Hassan Nasrallah, the former war leader of the Iran -backed group who was killed in Beirut last year, stares you from advertising paintings while you were walking along the Imam Khomeini road, which was called the name of the late founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The photos of Hezbollah leaders were permeated by the dramatic murals of the Iranian spy leader, Al -Qasrani.

Many of these pictures have been replaced by Western and local brands. In June, dozens of advertising boards appeared along the highway instead of Louis Hamilton Louis Hamilton products.

Many new posters are also distinguished by the unified national messages that replaced the previous sectarian signs – an attempt by the new Prime Minister in Lebanon, Nawaf Salam, to encourage a “new era for Lebanon”, in the appropriate time in the time of summer tourism that the Mediterranean state hopes after months of war.

In this “new” Lebanon, Hezbollah is forced to work in the shadow-more than ever in the history of the group of more than 40 years.

The Iranian agent, who controls several parts of Lebanon as a group of a sub -state and has been appointed a terrorist organization by Washington, has always discussed innovative ways to evade US sanctions. But since the aggressive attacks of Israel – the most deadly since the 2006 war – Hezbollah and the financial infrastructure have been left in a war.

“Hezbollah finds itself in its greatest definition since its foundation. The Israeli war against Lebanon has greatly struck the party and the infrastructure, and the assassination of senior military and political leaders in the party, including Secretary -General Hassan Nasrallah,” CNBC.

He said: “The areas inhabited by the Shiite population were largely targeted, as it destroyed housing and civil infrastructure on a large scale.”

The group, whose political wing holds seats in Parliament, has a great political power in Lebanon, Which held the last parliamentary elections In 2022, despite the loss of the most important number of seats in the group’s political history, it is still being held on an alliance of 62 seats in the 128 -member parliament.

Although Hezbollah “will not disappear because it contains a strong political, hard -line, disciplined and organized structure, and benefits from Iran’s continuous assistance, the” group “has become politically and socially isolated outside the Shiite residents in Lebanon,” Dahr said.

When the Lebanese depositors were closed from their savings in 2019 after a Financial collapse Hezbollah paralyzed, paralyzing the country and its currency, capable of financing its illegal activities. She only managed cash and managed the black US dollar exchanges.

This strategy Regional analysts say, despite the pressure on their financial resourcesand Because of the extreme difficulty in tracking only informal transactions.

Dewel said that Lebanon’s economy “runs more than 60 % on cash exchanges, which the state cannot follow.” “Thanks to the segment of this circulating money, Hezbollah is smuggling to Lebanon that it funds its activities, pays its employees, and helps its popular base, along with other sources of financing, both licensing and unlawful.”

However, the United States, during the era of President Donald Trump’s administration, puts renewed pressure on the new Lebanon government to take strict measures against Hezbollah’s illegal activities.

It is worth noting that no one is officially demanding the dissolution of Hezbollah or completely stopping. Trump’s envoy in the region, Tom Barak, recently called on Hezbollah to put its weapons, a proposal that was approaching the group unacceptable.

“Hezbollah will not take away because you ask them well,” Levitte said. “But we have to enable the Lebanon government to do so, give them the ability to do so, and to get their backs when they do so.”

Former US officials say it is irony that the tools that have weakened in many cases have been weakened in many cases due to the shrinking of US government resources under the Trump administration.

Alexander Zerden, manager at Capitol Peak Strategies Capitol PEAK, which is based in Washington -based, which previously served in the terrorist office in the US Treasury and Financial Intelligence Ministry, has identified some of these possible methods.

“On the offensive side, the United States can probably continue to target Hezbollah’s financial networks inside and outside Lebanon. The United States will seek to deprive Hezbollah from Syria, including profitable reconstruction contracts,” Zerden said.

“On the side of incentives, direct tools are more limited with diplomatic capabilities and development discounts,” he indicated – an example of this is to overcome the United States Agency for International Development, which was a strong diplomatic vehicle. He added: “However, it seems that there is space for the United States to support economic reforms.”

For Ronnie Chatah, a Lebanese political analyst and host of Bodcast Beirut Banyanand What is really required is the international pressure that drives Iran to abandon its participation in Lebanon.

“What has not changed in the interest of Lebanon is the international side, which means finding a way for Iran to abandon Lebanon, which I think can only occur through strategic diplomacy,” said Chatah, who was killed, his father, a former Lebanese finance minister, was killed in the Hezbollah plot.

He told CNBC from Beirut: “If the Trump administration wants peace the way it says again and again, if Donald Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize as well, then there must be a path alongside Lebanon to highlight and to find a peaceful decision that satisfies in some respects Iran’s conditions.”

Shatah has warned that what has been done so far by both the United States and Lebanese governments is important, but it will not eventually break the power of Hezbollah in the country.

“The opportunity window is now. It is not tomorrow, and unfortunately, it is a closing window,” he said. “The intention is not enough. Whether it is by the Trump administration or even whether the Lebanese president is, the intention is not enough.”