At nation’s biggest port in LA, dismal China trade leads freight slump

New data from the Port of Los Angeles shows commitments made by China to buy more US agricultural products as part of a trade deal between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump That has yet to materialize, and that has contributed to freight volume falling to a three-year low at the country’s busiest ports.

The total volume of cargo handled at the Port of Los Angeles in January A decrease of approximately 12% year on yearWith Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, citing declining agricultural exports as among the main factors. “Exports to China look bad,” he said.

Exports to China have declined significantly through the country’s major ports, with container exports down 26% last year, according to data shared by the Port of Los Angeles. Los Angeles has taken a big hit from important agricultural exports of soybeans, according to Seroka.

In early 2026, President Trump China announced It is considering purchasing an additional eight million metric tons of U.S. soybeans (for a total of 20 million) for the current season, following an October 2025 agreement to purchase 12 million tons.

Soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles to China fell by 80% last year, and there was no improvement in November or December after initial discussions between the United States and China.

“It’s a really important part of the overall export strategy here,” Seroka said. “Argentina and Brazil have a lot of contracts with China for soybeans,” he said, adding that any increase in the US agricultural sector’s ability to export will take time. “These are not transaction-type applications. These are agreements that extend back to the last three, six, 12 months. So there will be another cycle before a U.S. soybean exporter has a chance to bid and get into the game,” he added.

The Port of Los Angeles reported nearly 812,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) arrived for January, including imports, exports and empty containers. In January 2025, approximately 924,000 TEUs were reported, fueled by front-loading of cargo not only ahead of the key holiday period in Asia but also the start of President Trump’s second-term tariffs. Excluding the number of containers, January imports amounted to 421,000 TEU, down nearly 13% from high levels a year ago. On the export side, 104,000 container units were processed, a decrease of nearly 8% year-on-year.

Empty export containers sent to Asia during times of high demand, a forward-looking indicator of Asian demand, reached 286,000 TEU, down 12.5% ​​from a year ago, according to the Port of Los Angeles.

Seroka said the higher numbers for 2025 compared to a period when importers were scrambling to get goods before the tariffs will remain a factor in comparisons throughout much of 2026. “U.S. trade policy remains highly uncertain, and I expect that to continue,” he said.

The drop in shipping container import volumes at the country’s largest port was notable during a typically busy period for import activity from China and broader Asian manufacturing hubs, due to the Lunar New Year, as companies bring in spring and summer goods before manufacturing plants in China close for a month to mark the holiday. A decline in demand for goods can also be seen in February data so far, as the number of container arrivals appears “flat,” according to Seroka. “Compared to the great first quarter of last year, I expect a decline of less than 10% in the first quarter, and I do not expect the economy or merchandise volume to decline after that,” he said.

But he added that January’s numbers were worrying. “This is our lowest monthly production in nearly three years,” Seroka said. “This reinforces the importance of trade policy. American farmers and manufacturers need to remain competitive in global markets. They simply cannot afford to lose any more ground,” he said.

Economics of US Route Sea Freight Near ‘Break Even Point’

As U.S. port activity declines, the pressure is being felt throughout the ocean shipping market, with rates falling and container capacity available on ships increasing.

According to Peter Sand, senior shipping analyst at Xeneta, the decline in container volumes has led to a widespread decline in ocean freight rates. In the “mid- and low-end market segment” — generally occupied by higher-volume shippers — rates fell more than 18% in the past month, while the market average fell 11.5%.

“Because the lower mid-range market acts as an indicator and appears to be more directly impacted by increased Pacific capacity, shippers that pay the lower mid-range should expect further price declines in the coming weeks,” Sand said.

Shipping companies will respond with what Sand called “aggressive capacity management,” which means more empty (cancelled) cruises to help put a floor on lower rates.

In a recent note to clients, Honor Lane Shipping said current freight rate levels have “fallen near or even below” carrier break-even points on all lanes to the U.S. and Canada.

HLS noted that the number of cruise cancellations beginning the week of February 9 reflected a 60%, 58%, and 50% reduction in ship capacity in the trade lanes from Asia to the Southwest Pacific, from Asia to the Pacific Northwest, and from Asia to the East Coast of the United States.

As a result of cruise cancellations, containers may be “rolled” once or twice while in Asia — meaning containers sit idle for weeks in the trade calendar until they can be placed on a ship with a destination in the United States. “This could cause supply chain disruption and delays for shippers,” Sand said.

China’s import mix in January remained largely concentrated in consumer goods and industrial inputs, according to trade data compiled by Descartes, with furniture and bedding reaching 126,149 TEUs, representing 16.4% of imports of Chinese origin. Plastic materials represented 15.4%, while imports of machinery and electrical machinery categories combined amounted to 18.3% of the total volume. Apparel, footwear and other textiles combined accounted for 6.5% of total volume, while toys and sporting goods accounted for 5.8% of imports, according to Descartes data.

The decline in trade volume from China is compensated to some extent by expansion Industrialization in Southeast Asian countries. In January, there was a 17.8% year-over-year increase in US containerized imports from Vietnam, according to Descartes, while imports from Thailand and Indonesia increased by 36.5% and 18%, respectively.

“Expansion in sourcing from Southeast Asia continues to offset part of the decline in Chinese origin imports,” Honor Lane wrote in its recent note to clients.

The Port of Los Angeles had about 60% of its import business tied to China at the start of the first trade war in 2018, Seroka said. “Today the percentage has reached 40 percent and is declining,” he said. The port has been able to grow thanks to a group of Southeast Asian countries that have made gains, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines. “But again, you’re not going to replace China or even one province in China with another asset,” Seroka said.

The Port of Long Beach, Los Angeles’ sister port, reported register Container volumes result from front loading in 2025, with volume growth aided by foreign trade Southeast Asia.