Asia is reeling but is anyone winning?

“Very unfortunate” is how Japanese Prime Minister Shigro Ishiba described the last threat to President Donald Trump – a 25 % tax on Japanese goods.

Tokyo, an American ally for a long time, has been trying hard to avoid it exactly. She was seeking concessions for trapped car makers, while resisting pressure to open its markets on American rice.

There were many negotiating rounds. The Minister of Trade in Japan has visited Washington, DC, at least seven times since April, when Trump declared comprehensive definitions against friends and enemies.

However, it seems that these trips have endured a little fruit. The Trump brand moved to Tokyo from “difficult” to “spoiled” as the conversations continued.

Then this week, Japan joined a list of 23 countries that were sent in introductory messages – 14 of them in Asia. From South Korea to Sri Lanka, many manufacturing centers driven by export.

On Friday, Trump announced 35 % tariff for goods Imported from Canada.

The president also said that he is planning to raise a 10 % to 20 % blanket tariff for most commercial partners, and refused concerns that more fees could increase inflation.

“We will only say that all the remaining countries will pay, whether 20 % or 15 %. We will work on that now,” he told NBC News.

Countries all over the world have until August 1 to conclude a deal with the United States. But they are more likely to ask about their chances, given that Japan, a strong ally, was pursuing a public deal, still facing a very slope tax.

Trump He reset the tariff hour – again. So who wins and who loses?

In some sense, all the countries targeted by Trump benefit earlier this year from extending the deadline – they now have three other weeks to conclude deals.

“The optimistic situation is that there is now pressure to participate in other negotiations before the deadline on August 1,” said Swan Tick Kane, head of research at United Bank abroad.

The growing economies such as Thailand and Malaysia, which received tariff messages this week, will be especially keen to search for a solution. They were also arrested in the midst of American -Chinese tensions, as Washington targets the Chinese exports that have been redirected across the third countries, known as multiple goods.

The BBC economists have told additional additions, given the complexity of commercial agreements.

Alex Capri of the National University of Singapore said that the two countries will need time to implement Trump’s demands, which, with messages, are not completely clear.

For example, the high goods were specifically imposed as part of the Vietnam Trade deal with the United States. But it is unclear whether this applies to ready -made goods, or to all imported ingredients.

Either way, it will include more advanced technology to track supply chains, said Mr. Capri.

“It will be a slow and long -term process and develops many third parties, technology companies and logistics partners.”

It seems clear that the definitions here are to remain, which makes world trade losing.

Mr. Capri said that companies from the United States, Europe and China with international companies are still in danger. This is not only the exporters, But also importers of us and consumers.

It is a blow to the economic aspirations of large parts of Asia, whose height is provided with manufacturing, from electronics to textiles.

Mr. Capri added that it is not wise to make zero notes about the countries you win and lose, because international trade, especially between us and China, is deeply linked.

Some countries, however, can lose more than others.

Vietnam was the first in Asia forcing a deal, but she had little influence against Washington, and she is now facing drawings of up to 40 %. The same applies to Cambodia. It is a poor country that highly depends on exports, and it negotiates an agreement as Trump threatens 35 % of the customs tariff.

South Korea and Japan, on the other hand, may be able to withstand a longer period, because it is richer and has stronger political geographical cranes.

India, which also has influence on its own, has not issued a message yet. It looked an imminent deal but It appears to be late due to the main adhesion pointsIncluding access to the Indian agricultural market and the country’s import rules.

“Despite its close economic and military relationship with the United States, Japan is treating itself like other Asian trade partners,” said economist Jiber Cole.

This can transform the relationship, especially since Tokyo, with its large financial reserves, seems ready for the long game.

“Japan has proven to be a difficult negotiator and I think this disturbed Trump,” said Cole.

Despite the lack of rice that sent prices to high prices, Prime Minister Ishiba refused to buy American rice and choose to protect local farmers. His government also refused to surrender to the United States to increase its military spending.

“They are well ready,” Mr. Cole argued. He said that on the day after Trump’s announcement of the definitions in April, Tokyo announced an economic emergency and established hundreds of consultations centers to help the affected companies.

He said, “Japan will seek a credible deal,” because what is the guarantee will not change Trump again?

Cole said that with elections in Upper Japan scheduled this month, it would be surprising that a deal was agreed by August.

“No one is happy. But is this something that will force the recession in Japan? No.”

Asia has long been seen as a major battlefield between Washington and Beijing, and analysts say, due to the customs tariff, Trump may be waived from the ground.

For one of them, given the complexity of these deals, Trump may be exaggerated by running his hand by extending the deadline again, according to some observers.

“The position of bargaining in the United States has already decreased as they revealed that their hands are not actually strong as they want,” said David Jaczi, a professor of economics at NUS.

The deals that were made can come at the expense of the reshaping of trade and the relationships that have been built over decades.

Mr. Capri, who described it as a “political theater”, said that Trump’s choice to publish messages via the Internet, and not through traditional diplomatic channels, can bring in reverse results.

He added that the resulting ambiguity is a “great gift” for China, which is trying to photograph itself as a stable alternative to the inability to predict Trump.

But it is not easy to replace the American market – and Beijing has a fair share of tensions with countries in this part of the world, from Vietnam to Japan.

China is in the middle of its trade negotiations with the United States, although it has a longer time to reach a full agreement – until August 13.

It is difficult to say who will win more friends in this trade war, but the race is still running.

“Both parties see the need for divorce, but reaching there will be harsh and includes procedures that will expand years, if not contracts,” said Professor Jacz.