An ex-first lady, a tycoon and a ‘safe pair of hands’ vie for power

Dance dominates election rallies in Ivory Coast but the vibrant energy and enthusiasm belie concerns about the political landscape in the world’s largest cocoa producer.

Saturday’s presidential election in the West African country is important for candidates who have been blocked from running as well as for those vying for the top job.

While current President Alassane Ouattara, considered a hero by some for bringing growth over the past 15 years to a country after a brutal civil war, faces a backlash from those who view the 83-year-old’s bid for a fourth term as a slap in the face to democracy – even though his candidacy is permitted by the constitution.

Prominent opposition leader Tidjane Thiam was disqualified in April after a court ruled that he lost his Ivorian citizenship when he became French in 1987 – a ruling he contested – while former president Laurent Gbagbo was banned over his 2018 criminal conviction.

It was Gbagbo’s refusal to accept defeat to Ouattara in a runoff in 2010 that sparked the post-election conflict that left more than 3,000 people dead and battered a nation vital to the world’s chocolate supply.

However, Ouattara, known to his supporters by his initials “Addo”, still faces strong competition, especially from Gbagbo’s ex-wife, one of the richest men in the country, and is very popular among urban voters – but a divided opposition.

There are four candidates against the octogenarian:

• Simone Gbagbo76, a former first lady, was once married to former President Laurent Gbagbo and is considered his key advisor
• Jean-Louis Billon60, is a former minister and one of the richest men in the country who made his fortune from palm oil
• Henriette Lago Adjoa66 years old, former minister and prominent women’s rights activist
• Ahoa Don Milo67 years old, former minister and former ally of former President Gbagbo.

Despite the economic progress under Ouattara, his opponents hope to capitalize on the complaints of many of the country’s poor, who do not feel the benefits of rapid growth.

“The economy is growing, but not for us,” said Bellone, a businessman and the youngest of all the candidates – representing the Democratic Congress (LAW).

Dancing on stage during rallies in front of thousands of supporters in the political capital Yamoussoukro, he pulled off judo moves to show he was “ready for the job and full of energy.”

“Young people cannot find jobs, and the cost of living is rising,” says the politician, who is confident that if he runs in a runoff with the incumbent president, “Ouattara’s time will end.”

Bellon had hoped to represent the center-right Democratic Party (PDCI) of the late President Henri Konan Bidier.

But in the end, the party chose the now disqualified Thiam – so without a candidate on the ballot, Bellon feels confident he will have the support of supporters of the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire.

But Simone Gbagbo, leader of the left-wing Capable Generations movement, has also presented herself as a voice for the disaffected – and she believes those voices will come to her.

Always smiling, wearing elegant traditional dresses, her energy shines through and she holds the microphone like a pop star. A natural activist, she knows how to energize her supporters.

The former first lady, once dubbed the “Iron Lady” because of her reputation for toughness, is part of the CPA-CI, a coalition of opposition groups that came together earlier this year to protest Ouattara’s nomination.

“President Ouattara has done some good things, but he has destroyed education,” she recently told supporters.

With her background in education, academia and labor unions, she focused her campaign on rebuilding schools and providing better opportunities for young people.

Despite these criticisms, Ouattara’s supporters remain confident. Its parades seem a little less dynamic than in 2010, 2015 and 2020, but they still attract many people of all ages.

Ivorian rapper Tam Baya’s song “Coup du marteau” (Hammer Blow) featuring Team Baya has become the unofficial anthem of his RHDP party, with prime ministers, ministers, former MPs and other influential supporters often seen dancing to it energetically.

“The president is in good condition and ready to take office again,” says government spokesman Adama Coulibaly, pointing to major public works and investor confidence as evidence of the country’s stability.

But despite a change to the constitution in 2016 that allowed Ouattara to run for a third and fourth term, his candidacy this time sparked anger and the government responded to the latest protests with a swift crackdown.

More than 700 demonstrators were arrested earlier this month after an opposition march, and 50 of them were sentenced to three years in prison.

There are some concerns that this could be a precursor to more chaos in the wake of the vote.

The memory of past political violence is still fresh, and to avoid any unrest, security forces have been deployed in major cities.

However, many residents are taking precautions.

Ahwa Diomande, a mother of two, told the BBC: “We will leave Abidjan a week before the vote.”

“Every election brings fighting and deaths.”

But there are optimists too, like Charme Matouba, an Abidjan resident originally from Congo-Brazzaville, who shut down after the election campaign even though she couldn’t vote.

“I know everything will go well,” she said. “Ivorians do not want to die again for politicians.”

“I just hope people go and vote. All my friends are supporting Simone. She’s a leader and a real source of inspiration. She can rock the boat.”

Regional loyalties are likely to play a large role in these elections, as they have done in the past.

Ouattara enjoys strong support in the north, where his base among Diola-speaking communities remains loyal – and he has chosen to launch his campaign in the west, where he has previously received votes.

Simone Gbagbo also draws a great deal of her support from the West, as well as from the South-West, which are historical strongholds of her former husband’s party.

Bellon appeals to voters in urban and central areas, promising to modernize the economy and promote generational change.

“He represents the younger generation,” said 19-year-old Salifou Sanogo. “This will be my first time voting, and I seriously know he will win. Ouattara is old and tired and has not done anything for us. We need change, we need Bellon.”

The support of the excluded candidates would be important, but neither Thiam nor former President Gbagbo supported anyone else.

However, Simone Gbagbo has the support of Charles Blé Godey, who was once a close ally of her ex-husband and who has opted out of the ring.

“Bring Simon to the palace,” the charismatic politician told thousands of YP supporters at a recent rallies.

Besides the economy, foreign relations have also become an electoral issue.

Ivory Coast has taken a hard line against the military juntas in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, which now form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and seek closer ties with Russia.

These regimes accuse Ouattara of siding with France, the former colonial power, and pursuing a “secret agenda” on its behalf – something his government denies, and asserts that it supports democratic rule in the region.

But the speech exacerbated tensions with its northern neighbours. Some opposition candidates, including Ahoua Don Melo, have suggested that Ivory Coast should be “open to new partnerships” with Russia and China, arguing that the country should diversify its alliances.

His message has resonated in parts of western Ivory Coast, where anti-French sentiment runs deep.

When fake news claiming that Ouattara had died spread on social media last March, Ivorian authorities believed it had started from the AES countries.

As the din of election campaigns draws to a close, supporters of President Ouattara insist that continuity is key to maintaining stability and economic progress.

His critics claim that another term would deepen frustration and undermine confidence in democratic institutions – something that carries dangerous echoes of the past.