AI taking white-collar jobs. Economists warn ‘much more in the tank’

JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs It is harnessed to employ fewer people. Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that it would “displace half of all white-collar workers.” Sales force‘s Marc Benioff He actually claimed it Do up to 50% of the company’s workload. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said The Wall Street Journal It will “change literally every job.”

The “it” on the lips of American companies is artificial intelligence.

Less than three years into the generative AI boom, CEOs in every major industry are loudly telling employees and shareholders that because of the ongoing technological revolution, the size and shape of their workforces are about to change dramatically, if they haven’t already.

What started with the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and a fresh new way for consumers to use chatbots has quickly made its way into the enterprise, as companies use custom AI agents to automate jobs in customer support, marketing, coding, content creation, and elsewhere.

Recent estimates from Goldman Sachs indicate this 6% to 7% Of American workers can They lose their jobs Due to the adoption of artificial intelligence. The Digital Economy Lab at Stanford University, using ADP employment data, found this Entry level hiring “Jobs exposed to AI” have declined by 13% since large language models began to spread. Software development, customer service, and clerical work are the types of jobs most vulnerable to artificial intelligence today, the report said.

“We are at the beginning of a progressive development process that will extend over several decades and will have a significant impact on the labor market,” he said. Gad Levanonchief economist at the Burning Glass Institute, a research firm focused on changes in the economy and workforce.

Automation, of course, is not new. Every era has its printing press, ATM, self-checkout machine, or online booking agency that has replaced human labor with some form of technology. In the process, new jobs emerge and economies adapt and develop.

A a report The World Economic Forum estimated earlier this year that the onslaught of artificial intelligence, robotics and automation could eliminate 92 million jobs by 2030, while adding 170 million new ones. AI development, research, safety and implementation are growth areas, along with robotics.

In addition to new types of roles, physical jobs such as health aides and construction workers have so far been protected from AI disruption, said Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the Stanford research group.

“There will be more disruption in both directions in the coming months and years,” Brynjolfsson said in an interview. “We need to prepare our workforce.”

High-level data does not yet show massive changes.

The US government is three weeks in closeso the BLS has gone dark. But alternative reports from organizations like the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed that the economy was on a roll. Employment growth is weak, but the labor market is stable.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in September, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, as did the rate of layoffs and other separations at 2.1%.

Modern The study was published The Budget Lab at Yale University found no “noticeable disruption” caused by ChatGPT. Martha Gimpel, co-founder of the lab, described the revolution caused by artificial intelligence as “minimal” and “incredibly focused,” although that could change as technological changes succeed in the broader economy.

“The rest of the economy often moves more slowly than Silicon Valley,” she said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found in a reconnaissance Last month, only 1% of service companies reported AI-related layoffs in the past six months. The Society for Human Resource Management said Data It shows that 6% of jobs in the United States have been automated by 50% or more, a number that rises to 32% in computer and math-related occupations.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy He said In June, he announced that his company’s workforce would be shrinking from AI over the next few years, and encouraged employees to learn how to use AI tools to ultimately “get more work done with more chaotic teams.”

The New York Times published an article Investigation piece On Tuesday, it emerged that Amazon’s automation team expects it could avoid hiring more than 160,000 people in the US by 2027, which equates to saving about 30 cents on every product Amazon packages and delivers. The newspaper said that the report was based on interviews and internal strategic documents.

An Amazon spokesperson told CNBC, in response to the report, that the documents present “an incomplete and misleading picture of our plans.”

“In this case, the materials appear to reflect the view of only one team and do not represent our overall hiring strategy across our various operational business lines – now or in the future,” the spokesperson said in an email.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp He told CNBC In August, his data analytics company, which has seen its market value rise more than elevenfold in the past two years, aims to increase revenues by 10 times and cut its headcount by about 12%. He did not provide a time frame for reaching this goal.

The message is making its way through the tech industry.

Salesforce CEO Benioff said last month that his software company was cutting the number of customer support roles from 9,000 to 5,000 “because I need fewer bosses.” Swedish financial technology company Klarna He said he had Reduced its workforce by 40% As it relies on artificial intelligence. Shopify CEO Toby Lutke He told the staff In April, they are expected to prove why they “can’t achieve what they want with AI” before requesting more staff and resources.

Coding assistants have been early winners in the generative AI rush, becoming the first real type of app to attract a large number of paying users. Information It was reported last week that Anysphere, Cursor’s parent company, is in talks to raise money at a valuation of $27 billion, as it takes over… Microsoft GitHub and other startups, including Replit, are in an increasingly crowded market.

Software development is just the beginning.

in BankingJPMorgan managers have been told to avoid hiring people as the company deploys artificial intelligence across its business, Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum told analysts last week. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, said that as his bank integrates artificial intelligence, it will “take a first-hand look at how our employees organize, make decisions, and think about productivity and efficiency.”

Then there is the automobile sector.

When Ford CEO Farley Walter Isaacson said In an interview in July, he said that “AI will leave a lot of white-collar people behind,” reflecting sentiments that are growing throughout his industry. According to a survey of 500 US car dealers conducted by Marketing Solutions FayronHalf of respondents said they expect AI to sell vehicles autonomously by 2027.

“This means AI is creating marketing assets, handling listings, answering buyers’ questions, negotiating deals, arranging financing, and completing the sale — all without human intervention,” Veyron said in a report on the results of its survey last month.

This topic is likely to receive a lot of attention in the next few weeks as the world’s largest technology companies release quarterly results and update investors on their AI deployments. Tesla Tech earnings season begins on Wednesday, followed by next week alphabet, deadmicrosoft, apple And Amazon.

— CNBC’s Annie Palmer contributed to this report.

He watches: AI will not replace workers, it will replace the tasks that workers perform