AI expert warns artificial intelligence may eliminate jobs now

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

This is the message that has caught fire in the world of media technology when it comes to artificial intelligence (Amnesty International).

This column, for what it’s worth, is written by a fallible human being on a battered keyboard without any technological assistance.

It’s very rare – once a blue month – that I read an article that completely changes my view on an issue.

Like most people, I viewed the rise of artificial intelligence with a mixture of anxiety, skepticism, and astonishment.

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It’s fun to reminisce Images on ChatGPTfor example, and I realize that some people are using it in superspeed research. But then you hear tales of AI messing up math problems or spouting things that are simply not true.

Sure, we’ve all seen warnings that this fast-growing technology will cost some people their jobs, but I assumed that would be mainly in Silicon Valley. The era of air travel did not eliminate passenger trains or coaches, although it did provide a curtain on the horse and buggy trade.

But now it comes Schumann diedwho works in the field of artificial intelligence, is not simply joining the prediction lottery. It tells us what is happening now.

In the past year, he says, “New technologies for building these models have opened up a much faster pace of progress. Then it got faster. Then faster again. Not only was each new model better than the last… but better by a wider margin, and the time between new model releases was shorter. I was using the AI ​​more and more, going back and forth with it less and less, watching it deal with things that I thought required my expertise.”

On February 5, two major companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, released new models that Shuman likens to “the moment when you realize the water has risen around you and is now in your chest.”

Rude claims ChatGPT has been made more accurate. The polite ones scored lower. The tone changed the outcome. (Kurt “CyberGuy” Knutson)

Bingo: “I’m no longer needed to do the actual technical work for my job. I describe what I want to build in plain English, and it just shows up. Not a rough draft that I need to fix. The final thing. I tell the AI what I want, step away from my computer for four hours, and come back to find the work done. I’ve done well, done better than I would have done it myself, no need for corrections. For two months, I’ve been going back and forth with the AI, directing it, making adjustments. Now it’s just me I describe the result and leave.”

Wait, there’s more. The new GPT model “wasn’t just executing my instructions. It was making intelligent decisions. It had something that seemed, for the first time, like judgment. Like taste. The inexplicable sense of knowing what the right decision was that people always said AI would never exist. This model had it, or something close enough that the distinction began to matter.”

This goes beyond geeky The world of techniciansIf you feel immune. “Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service. Not in ten years. The people who build these systems say one to five years. Some say less. Given what I’ve seen in just the past two months, I think ‘less’ is more likely.”

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My knee-jerk reaction was, well, I’ll be fine because there’s no super-intelligent robot that can talk about news on TV or podcasts with the same attitude and verve that I do. Then I remember, even as a writer, that news organizations are increasingly relying on artificial intelligence.

What about musicians who bring soul to rock and roll or pop to their pop music? Well, the most famous AI singer is Xania Monet. Some fans were surprised to find out it wasn’t real, though the real poet was Telisha “Nikki” Jones, and most listeners didn’t care. In fact, “Xania” now has a multi-million dollar recording deal.

Another alarming thought: “Dario Amodei, perhaps the most safety-focused CEO in the AI ​​industry, has publicly predicted that AI will eliminate 50% of… Entry level white collar jobs Within one to five years.”

gulp.

Experts expect that artificial intelligence will eliminate 50% of entry-level administrative jobs within one to five years. This statistic comes as job security concerns around technology increase. (Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

This has already shocked the media echo chamber, echoing from Axios to The New York Times to The Wall Street Journal, among others.

The fact that Matt Shuman presents this in a measured tone, rather than a sky-falling cry, adds to its credibility.

AnthropicFor its part, it issued a study that defended the Claude Opus model, “against any attempt to exploit, manipulate, or independently manipulate” the company’s operations “in a way that increases the risk of future catastrophic outcomes.”

The report added: “We do not believe that it has serious, coherent goals that would increase the risk of sabotage, nor that its deceptive capabilities rise to the level of invalidating our evidence.”

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Meanwhile, National Review provides a counterweight to the so-called “Doom“.

For one thing, “most forecasts predict that AI will be a top-down disruption rather than a bottom-up phenomenon.”

On the other hand, Noah Rothman writes, “There is almost no room in discourse for undesirable outcomes that fall short of disaster. After all, modesty and caution are not widespread.”

What about the positive impact?

Concerns about artificial intelligence have led to the emergence of “doom.” Although experts say that “humility and wisdom” in AI discourse “are not widespread.” (Istock)

“Instead of wiping out entire sectors, it is entirely possible that workers displaced by AI could be retained in sectors where they already work.

It defies logic to assume that an industry that grows as quickly as expected for artificial intelligence will not need to Human data scientistsResearch analysts, dedicated engineers, and yes, even support and administrative staff. In addition, sectors such as healthcare, agriculture, and emerging industries will require as much, or even more, human talent than they currently employ.

the Conservative magazine He is also disturbed that “participants in this discussion default to the assumption that the only solution to AI’s disruptive potential, no matter how great, is big government.”

Well, take your pick.

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If artificial intelligence, which is now able to be programmed well enough to reproduce itself, cannot eliminate millions of jobs, or society can find ways to adapt, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

If artificial intelligence Devastated As Shuman’s alarming article says, we can’t say we haven’t been warned — but perhaps we can harness that to do our jobs while working three days a week with three-hour lunches.

I don’t know at this point, but I’d say it’s going to be a wild ride.