Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei expected to be harder line

“Think of Mojtaba Khamenei as his father on steroids.”

That’s how Kasra Arabi, director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps research at the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, described it. The new supreme leader of Iran In statements to Fox News Digital following reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son had been chosen to lead the Islamic Republic.

“Mujtaba was actually serving as a mini-supreme guide in the Rahbari House — his father’s office and the regime’s primary power nucleus,” Al-Orabi said.

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An archive photo shows Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while attending a demonstration marking Quds Day in Tehran. (Mortaza Nikoubazel/Nour Photo via Getty Images)

“His father created the broad House apparatus as a hidden power structure to ensure continuity in the event of his elimination — and by appointing Mujtaba, that is exactly what we will get,” Orabi said.

President Donald Trump also reacted to the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei. In an interview with New York PostTrump said he was “not happy” with the younger Khamenei replacing his father as leader of Iran’s theocratic regime, but declined to provide details on how the United States would respond. “I won’t tell you,” Trump said when asked about his plans regarding the new supreme leader. “I won’t tell you. I’m not happy with him.”

An Iranian source familiar with the leadership transition told Fox News Digital that previous speculation that Mojtaba might pursue reforms now seems unlikely given the circumstances surrounding his appointment.

“Previously there were whispers indicating that if Mujtaba became the leader, he might introduce reforms that would open up the domestic political space and bring a more proactive approach to foreign policy,” the source said.

“However, now this possibility seems very weak.”

Mojtaba was chosen “amid disagreements, disputes, and pressure from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,” according to the source, which means he “owes his appointment to their support, and therefore cannot act against their will.”

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Military personnel of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in western Tehran, Iran (Mortaza Nikoubazel/Nour Photo via Getty Images)

Built within the security state in Iran

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, has spent decades building his influence within the power structures surrounding Iran’s supreme leader.

Born in 1969 in Mashhad, he continued his religious studies in Tehran, Iran, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought his father to prominence. However, over time, analysts say his influence developed less through traditional religious authority and more through religious authority Security institutions in Iran.

In 2019, the United States Mujtaba approved Under Executive Order 13867, the US Treasury Department said he was “representing the Supreme Leader in an official capacity even though he has not been elected or appointed to a government position other than working in his father’s office.”

Mojtaba’s background reflects a broader shift within the Islamic Republic, said Behnam Ben Talebloo, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program.

People carry banners with a picture of new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei with late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a rally in support of Mojtaba Khamenei, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (Majid Asgharipour/Wana (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)

“Despite wearing a turban, Mujtaba is a product The deep state of the regime’s national security“Expect him to work with and through the IRGC to maintain his grip on power,” Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital.

Al-Orabi said that Mojtaba spent years strengthening his influence behind the scenes.

“His past tells us that he enjoys micromanaging every aspect of power to satisfy his thirst for power,” Aarabi said, describing how Mojtaba moved the IRGC’s command centers to his office during protests, engineering election results and installing loyalists in state institutions.

Al-Orabi added that since 2019, Mojtaba has been implementing what he described as his father’s efforts to “purify” the regime by strengthening ideological loyalists throughout the political system.

“Mojtaba is deeply anti-Semitic, anti-American and anti-Western,” Al-Orabi said. “He has personally participated in repression in Iran and terrorist plots abroad.”

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Kashmiri Shia Muslims carry pictures of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as they march in a protest march on the fourth day of mourning in Magam, Jammu and Kashmir, on March 4, 2026. (Faisal Khan/Anadolu/Getty Images)

Analysts see a tougher line ahead

Analysts say that Mojtaba’s rise may enhance the role of Iranian security institutions.

“The rise of the young Khamenei has been accelerating trend lines that have been prevailing in Iranian politics and national security for years,” Ben Taleblu said. “From one Khamenei to another, things in Iran are expected to go from bad to worse if this regime remains.”

“Like Khamenei the Great, Corruption runs in the familyHe added.

Ben Taleblu warned that the regime may also escalate tensions externally as a survival strategy.

He added, “The regime knows that it is weak, but it believes that it is able to reap the price and expand the crisis in order to survive.”

For opposition groups inside Iran, the leadership transition signals continuity, not reform.

“He is Khamenei’s son, they have the same ideology and the same strategy and they are trying to continue that,” he added Same policyKhaled Azizi, spokesman for the Iranian Kurdistan Democratic Party, said.

He added, “Until now it is very difficult to determine what he will do and whether he will follow a different policy? I do not expect that.”

The Iranian source who spoke with Fox News Digital said that while engagement with the United States and the West is theoretically possible in the future, the chances remain slim.

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On March 1, 2026, in Sanaa, Yemen. Pro-Iranian protesters wave billboards depicting Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Yemeni and Iranian flags, weapons, and chant slogans at a rally to condemn the US-Israeli air attacks on Iran and the killing of Khamenei and several military officials. (Mohamed Hammoud/Getty Images)

The source said: “As I mentioned, this possibility is very weak.”

“In short, Mojtaba is his doping father,” El-Arabi said. “He definitely is.” No, Mohammed bin Salman“.