Trump policies make cartels fear attacking US citizens, analysts say

Mexico City: Mexican Drug gangs They are increasingly factored into targeting decisions, often deliberately avoiding attacking U.S. tourists and citizens out of fear that doing so would lead to intense U.S. retaliation, according to experts.

After the killing of Ruben “Nemesio” Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” the powerful leader of the group, last month. Mexican Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt joined “Fox & Friends” and issued a warning to the drug cartels: “Mexican drug cartels know not to touch any Americans, or they will pay dire consequences under this president.”

Analysts say the actions taken by the president Donald Trump – Including the designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and high-level operations abroad e.g Nicolas Maduro arrested and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran – reinforced cartels’ perceptions of increasing risks.

A soldier stands guard over a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Quintezio, Michoacán state, Mexico, Sunday, February 22, 2026, following the death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” (AP Photo/Armando Solis) (AP Photo/Armando Solis)

Mexican drug cartels have long operated with a primary goal: protecting revenue sources and avoiding actions that could trigger an overwhelming government response. Security analysts and former U.S. officials say the calculations often include avoiding intentionally targeting tourists and U.S. citizens inside Mexico.

“Of course, drug cartels fear President Trump since he declared them terrorist organizations. This may be one of the reasons why they do not attack American citizens or tourists,” cartel expert and activist Elena Chavez told Fox News Digital.

She said that the cartels are “modern and well aware of what is happening, especially since they know that there are bounties on their heads. That is why they fear the United States, and even more so since Trump became president and declared the cartels terrorist organizations. Of course, they monitor all this and have people who keep the leaders informed of how things are going.” The price is on top of the “manchu”. “In the United States it was very high.”

Adding to the pressure, Trump spoke Saturday at the newly minted Summit of the Americas Shield in Florida — an alliance of 12 countries from Latin America and the Caribbean — coming together to confront cartels, among other policies.

“We have to kick them out hard because they’re getting worse,” Trump warned. “They’re taking over their country. The cartels are running Mexico. We can’t let it happen. They’re too close to us.”

President Donald Trump, center, Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, second from left, Argentine President Javier Miley, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, Guyana President Muhammad Irfaan Ali, Costa Rica President Rodrigo Chavez Robles, Bolivia President Rodrigo Paz, and Chilean President-elect Jose Antonio Caste, pose for a family photo during the Shield of the Americas Summit in Doral, Florida, on Saturday. March 7, 2026. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

“Right now, there must be more than a million Americans coming to Mexico to spend their vacations at home. The drug cartels don’t mess with them or their homes. They know there is no way to avoid a reaction from the United States if they mess with its citizens. There is an unwritten rule that says you shouldn’t mess with American citizens; if you do, you will suffer retaliation from the United States. And even more so now with the Trump administration,” said the national security expert and former prosecutor for the Supreme Court in Washington. Specialized Organized Crime Unit Samuel Gonzalez told Fox News Digital.

Trump discusses expanding anti-drug campaign, issues grim warning to Iran

Although there have been high-profile killings of Americans in Mexico, experts describe it as isolated, accountable to cartel interests, and not part of a strategic campaign.

“There are many precedents as to why cartels were particularly careful not to touch American citizens. One of the most important was the Camarena case: the 1985 kidnapping, torture, and murder of DEA agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena in Mexico, committed by Guadalajara cartel leaders (Rafael Caro Quintero, Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo, and Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo) in retaliation for the destruction of the marijuana plantation “El Búfalo.”

“This crime marked a turning point in the anti-drug relationship between Mexico and the United States, prompting the DEA’s ‘Operation Linda’ to arrest those responsible and expose collusion between drug traffickers and high-ranking Mexican officials.”

He added: “Another case is that of Agent Zapata. On February 15, 2011, gunmen from the Los Zetas cartel killed Special Agent Jaime Zapata of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE/HSI) and shot Agent Victor Avila on a highway in San Luis Potosi, Mexico. The killing sparked intense pressure from the United States on Mexico to fight the cartels, leading to the arrest of several Los Zetas involved.” Members, including Julian Zapata Espinoza, also known as “El Biolín.”

“All of these precedents are examples of why gangs know it is not in their interest to attack American citizens.”

Troops reinforce Puerto Vallarta as unrest shows signs of easing after El Mencho’s death

Security experts say that gangs closely monitor political discourse in Washington, especially statements indicating unilateral American military action or expanded cross-border operations. Public debate over designating cartels as terrorist groups has resurfaced in recent years, with some lawmakers saying that would provide additional tools to disrupt financing and logistics networks.

According to former federal officials, the cartels’ avoidance of deliberately targeting Americans is rooted less in ideology and more in… Risk management. High-profile attacks on US citizens can generate intense media coverage, diplomatic tension, and increased enforcement operations that disrupt smuggling routes.

Tourists walk past a burning store in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco state, Mexico, on February 24, 2026, after gang-related violence erupted following the death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes. (Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images)

“Drug traffickers are more afraid of attacking a foreigner than they are of Mexicans because crimes against foreigners are prosecuted more strictly by Mexican authorities,” Francisco Rivas, director general of the National Observatory of Citizens, told Fox News Digital. “The greater media pressure when the victim is a foreigner creates a greater incentive for police and prosecutors to investigate cases of kidnapping, extortion, disappearance or murder.”

“In Mexico, more than 90% of murders and disappearances are linked to people who had some specific connection to gangs, primarily for commercial reasons,” he said. “The problems that tourists face in Mexico are the same as they would face in Miami, London, Rome or Paris: robberies, fraud and even some extortion, but they are relatively marginal. Most of the crimes that plague Mexico are borne by Mexicans, and most violent crimes involve Mexican victims linked to the gangs.”

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While millions of Americans travel to Mexico every year without incident, law enforcement officials assert that criminal violence remains widespread in areas where gangs operate.

Authorities on both sides of the border assert that cartel decision-making is driven by financial incentives and survival calculations. Actions viewed as likely to lead to direct US retaliation are widely viewed by analysts as counterproductive to those interests.

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