How the ‘poor man’s cruise missile’ is shaping Tehran’s retaliation

In the wake of the Israeli-American strikes on Iran, America’s allies in the Persian Gulf are hearing a sound that Ukrainian soldiers have long feared: the hum of the Shahed-136 “suicide” drone.

Originating from Iran, Shahid has already become a staple of modern warfare, as Russia, a strategic partner of Tehran, uses the technology in its years-long invasion of Ukraine.

Now, drones – the most advanced of which is the long-range Shahed 136 – have become a key component of Iran’s retaliation strategy against the United States and its regional allies, with thousands of them launched so far.

At first glance, the Shahed missile appears ordinary compared to advanced weapons technology, with one analyst referring to it as a “poor man’s cruise missile.”

But while US allies have been able to intercept the vast majority of incoming drones with the help of US-supplied defense systems such as Patriot missiles, many Shahad drones are still able to strike their targets.

The UAE Ministry of Defense said today, Tuesday, that out of 941 Iranian drones that have been monitored since the beginning of the Iranian war, 65 aircraft fell within its territory, causing damage to ports, airports, hotels and data centers.

Analysts say the key to its effectiveness lies in numbers. Drones are relatively cheap and easy to mass produce, especially compared to the sophisticated systems used to defend against them.

These factors make the drone ideal for massing and overburdening air defenses, as each drone intercepted also represents a more valuable defense asset expended.

“The Shahed-136, among other unmanned aerial systems, has provided countries like Russia and Iran with a cheap way to impose disproportionate costs,” said Patricia Bazelczyk, an analyst with the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

“It forces adversaries to waste expensive interceptors on low-cost drones, projecting power, and creating a constant psychological burden on the civilian population.”

we Government reports The Shahed-136 is described as a one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle produced by Iranian entities linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Compared to ballistic missiles, drones fly low and slow, carry a relatively modest payload, and are mostly limited to stationary targets, Behnam Ben Talebloo, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNBC.

General estimates are that Shahid drones can cost between $20,000 to $50,000 apiece. In contrast, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles can cost millions of dollars each.

In this sense, Shahid and its equivalents “essentially act as a ‘poor man’s cruise missile’ and provide a way to strike and harass adversaries ‘on the cheap,’” Talipello said.

For Iran, which faces international sanctions and restrictions on the possession of advanced weapons, this cost advantage is significant.

At the same time, the air defense systems used by the Gulf states and Israel may be expensive Between $3 million and $12 million per interceptionAccording to US Department of Defense budget documents.

This cost discrepancy raises a serious issue for Iran’s enemies: its air defense systems have limited numbers of defensive missiles, and each target intercepted represents a valuable asset to spend.

Thus, in a war of attrition, Tehran could use drones to weaken air defenses, leaving it vulnerable to more damaging attacks, analysts say.

“The logic is to use drones early while conserving ballistic missiles for the long term,” said Basilczyk of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

She added that Iran’s ability to continue to use drones on a large scale will depend on its stockpiles, the extent to which it can protect or restore its supply chain, and whether the United States and Israel can effectively disrupt the flow of components or production sites.

The United States has long sought, and recently imposed, the disruption of Iran’s production of the Shahed-136 missile New penalties Targeting suspected component suppliers across Türkiye and the UAE.

However, Russia’s production of Shahed drones shows that such systems can be manufactured on a large scale during wartime and amid targeted sanctions.

American officials claim Iran has flown more than 2,000 drones in the conflict as of Wednesday. However, the country is known to have large stockpiles and may be able to produce hundreds more every week, military experts say It is said He told the National newspaper.

“Gulf states are at risk of exhausting their interceptor missiles unless they are more careful about the timing of launching those interceptor missiles,” said José Pelayo, a Middle East security analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank.

He pointed out that “depletion is not imminent, but it remains an urgent issue.” However, attacks on multiple fronts by Iran’s allies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis could put stocks at risk of running out within days, he added.

some Analysts Some analysts have suggested that Iran has benefited from Russia’s extensive battlefield experience with drones, including modifications such as anti-jamming antennas, electronic warfare-resistant navigation, and new warheads.

These warheads typically carry between 30 and 50 kilograms of explosive and can perforate, especially when used in large swarms, with advanced versions capable of reaching a range of up to 1,200 miles.

Michael Connell, a Middle East specialist at the Center for Naval Analyzes, said the Shahed-136 proved so effective that the United States reverse-engineered it and deployed its own version on the battlefield against Iranian targets.

In its attacks on Iran over the weekend, US Central Command certain It used low-cost one-way attack drones similar to the “Shahed” aircraft for the first time in combat.

As drones become a staple of the modern battlefield, methods for handling them are evolving as well.

According to Talablou of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Ukraine has had some success shooting down drones with fighter jet cannon fire, a more durable deterrent than interceptor missiles.

Ukraine too Recently pioneered Development of cheap, mass-produced interceptor missiles, which Kiev claims can stop Witness.

Gulf countries are also expected to adopt more sustainable methods. The Pentagon and at least one Gulf government It is said In talks to buy cheaper Ukrainian-made interceptor missiles.

Meanwhile, the Qatari Ministry of Defense says it is also using its air force aircraft to intercept Iranian attacks, including Shahed drones, alongside ground-based air defences.

Electronic warfare targeting Shahid’s GPS, as well as short-range missiles and directed energy systems such as Israel’s Iron Beam, is also much cheaper to operate than traditional interceptors.

However, analysts say the Gulf states currently lack rapid, large-scale counter-drone capabilities. Developing and deploying such systems will likely take years, said the Atlantic Council’s Pelayo.

“Gulf states that host U.S. bases, such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, benefit from extended capacity to repel drone attacks through the U.S.-operated system, but it remains insufficient against mass and sustained attacks.”