Trump is talking tough on Iran, analysts doubt U.S. will strike

The prospect of a US attack on Iran has rattled oil prices this year, but analysts tell CNBC that a strike would require a greater military commitment and be more complex than the United States is preparing for.

Tensions are high, and despite talks last week in Amman, the two sides remain at an impasse. US President Donald Trump’s pressure on the Iranian regime has escalated after a brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters across the country last month.

Trump said this week that he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, even as Washington and Tehran prepared to resume talks. On Tuesday, he threatened Iran with “something very difficult” if it did not agree to Washington’s demands, which range from halting nuclear enrichment in the country to cutting off Iran’s ballistic missile program.

The United States deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in January. This brings the number of missile destroyers in the region to six, but analysts say this will not be enough to topple the regime. Carrying out his threat of “something tough” would mean a protracted conflict in a region Trump is wary of.

“US forces in the region are not sufficient to support a large, long-term military operation in Iran that would be necessary to achieve any major military objective,” Ali Reza Ahmadi, an executive fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, told CNBC.

Trump also intensified his pressure on the Islamic Republic, putting financial pressure on an economy already suffering from sanctions. Just last month, he pledge Imposing customs duties on any country that obtains any goods or services from Iran.

But it is unclear what could come next. “President Trump is known to be unpredictable,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at Crisis Group, told CNBC, but added that Trump realizes that “Iran’s set of problems does not lend itself to clean and easy military options.”

After the strikes that targeted three major nuclear sites last year, the White House claimed that Iranian nuclear facilities exist “Blur.” Iran moved to repair damage to ballistic missile sites quickly but according to analysis by… new york times, It has made “limited repairs” to major nuclear sites struck by the United States.

Iran has long claimed that it has no plans to develop nuclear weapons. With the resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran, Iran offered to limit uranium enrichment at low levels. The United States has opposed any Iranian uranium enrichment since the collapse of the nuclear agreement in 2018.

While the United States has pledged to attack Iran if it resumes its nuclear and missile programs, it is unclear whether these sites are ripe for attack again. “Both options would likely lead to disproportionate Iranian retaliation, which could then turn the confrontation into a regional conflagration,” Fayez said.