US state tariff bill hits $200 billion

New analysis of US Census data It shows that states across the US, where key midterm elections will be held this year, have paid more than $134 billion in tariffs in the period since. President Donald Trump It began implementing broad trading duties in March 2025 until last November. In total, US Census data compiled by the Global Trade Partnership showed a total of $199 billion in tariffs paid by states during that time period.

Trump has called affordability ‘Democratic hoax’ In his recent testimony before Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariffs ““Doesn’t cause inflation.”

But Trump’s tariffs and their affordability are expected to be factors in the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey data Of the American consumer and pricing data show that Affordability issues are real Many voters were nervous about the economy. January poll From The New York Times and Siena University It found that 54% of voters oppose Trump’s tariffs.

“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for rising prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of the We Pay the Tariffs small business coalition and president of the Global Trade Partnership. “The president could cancel tens of billions in taxes in states that will decide the 2026 election,” Anthony said. “He doesn’t want that.”

Anthony said his coalition is highlighting new data to counter rhetoric about tariffs “paid by other companies” and “paid to Americans” and “to educate the public about how tariffs actually work and who pays for them: American small businesses, workers and consumers.”

Top countries and tariff bills

• California: $38 billion
• Texas: $21 billion
• Michigan: $13 billion
• Georgia: $12 billion
• Illinois: $9.6 billion
• Ohio: $6.5 billion
• Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
• North Carolina: $5 billion
• South Carolina: $5.2 billion
• Kentucky: 4 billion dollars

This year, all 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 seats in the U.S. Senate will be elected. election. Republicans have a slim majority in both chambers of Congress. Democrats need to win four seats to win the majority in the Senate. In order to maintain control of the House of Representatives, the Republican Party cannot afford to lose more than two seats.

The midterm primary season begins on March 3, with voters heading to the polls in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas.

Small businesses across America have been hit hard by the tariffs

Many small business owners across the United States are speaking out about the impact of tariffs on their businesses, some as part of a new video-led campaign on YouTube called Small businesses against tariffs Which was launched on Wednesday in an attempt to raise awareness.

Chris Gibbs, a farmer in Shelby County, Ohio, who grows corn, soybeans, wheat and alfalfa hay and has 90 steers, said the tariffs have hurt him twice. “My operating costs are going up,” Gibbs said. “Tariffs on steel, aluminum and wood have raised the cost of everything I do,” he said. “From building buildings and barns, buying machinery, trailers, wheels, spare parts, and even fertilizer.”

Gibbs said the trade war has also affected his ability to sell his crops.

“In 2018, this president destroyed trade relationships, and at that moment, just like Carter in 1980 with the Russian embargo, we became an unreliable supplier. That’s where we are, and we haven’t recovered,” Gibbs said. “Brazil is now the main supplier of soybeans to China. Trump pushed President Xi into the arms of Brazil and they never left.”

Promised agricultural purchases were a big part of the first trade war between the United States and China. China has failed to meet its agricultural procurement commitments. In 2025, China promised to increase ordersBut trade data shows there has been no significant recovery.

Noel Hasegappa, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, told CNBC he saw a 95% year-over-year decline in soybean exports to China.

“China now consumes most of its soybean production from places like Brazil,” Hasegappa said. “The United States produces about 20 percent of the world’s soybeans. Brazil now produces 40 percent, partly because China is shifting its purchases to Brazil. We are doing everything we can as a major export gateway to help our exporters move their product more efficiently, but we need certainty and clarity on trade policy to make sure that product can move,” he said.

Gibbs said Tariff aid promised by Trump to farmers It is a slap in the face to all farmers and Americans. “If these checks come in, it’s the money I spent on tariffs and so are all American consumers,” Gibbs said.

At Michigan-based Hiblow USA, which specializes in linear wastewater treatment air pumps and sewer aerators widely used across the U.S. in residential wastewater treatment systems serving homes in rural and suburban areas, the company’s tariff bill reached $1.2 million in 2025. Tim Smith, president, said uncertainty about the longevity of the tariffs forced him to halt expansion plans. The southeast Michigan company has 10 employees, and the additional location would have created three to four new jobs. “We are a small company, and while some may think it doesn’t have a lot of jobs, they are good-paying jobs,” Smith said.

“We only passed 40 percent of our costs on to customers,” Smith said. He added: “It has become a competitive battle between companies to see who can hold out, burn more money and absorb these tariffs. But I think no one can continue to hold out and absorb the tariffs in the long term.”

The company imports its products from the Philippines. The country has not yet reached an agreement on tariffs with the United States MondayA 19% tariff on Philippine goods was discussed in Manila by representatives of the countries.

Smith said changing tariff rates have put additional pressure on his customs brokers. “We had to renew our customs bonds two or three times because we needed to add more money to the bonds,” Smith said. “It delayed us getting some of our containers, because the bonds were in limbo. You can’t process anything without your customs bonds.”

Customs bonds, also known as surety bonds, provide coverage to importers ensuring payment of duties and taxes on imported goods. the The value of these bonds and related guarantees increased In addition to the severe tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. If the bond does not have sufficient funds, the importer cannot take ownership of its freight.

until If the Supreme Court rules Many of Trump’s tariffs are illegal and require corporate refunds, with a decision likely on February 20, Smith says he knows that The Trump administration has another set of definitions Wait, so there will be no cash flow dilution.

“We’ve always gotten our money back through customs with no problem,” Smith said. “Sometimes it takes up to a year, but there is certainly a framework to do it. But what I can say is that we are certainly not making any action plans based on a ruling that we can get our money back. There are more tariffs on the way if they are ruled to be illegal.”

In New York, toy store owner Jennifer Bergman closed her West Side Kids store, founded by her mother, after 44 years in business due to tariffs. “The majority of our toys are manufactured in China, so tariff costs have dominated our business,” Bergman said. “We were constantly receiving emails from our suppliers about price increases, and as a result, we were forced to increase our prices.”

An example of this is her requests for scooters. The company typically sells $50,000 worth of motorcycles each year, Bergman said. After the tariffs, it did not have a motorcycle priced under $200, which affected not only its sales but also its inventory. “Scooter prices are up $30,” Bergman said. “I received a phone call from my scooter company, and they told me that they would reroute their containers to Canada because of the tariffs, and they would no longer bring them until the tariffs were reduced,” she added.

At the end of May, Bergman said she started looking at her numbers and realized she wouldn’t be able to pay July’s rent. “June was usually one of the busiest months…but June was deadly. I couldn’t afford to sell the inventory. I called my landlord, and fortunately, we had a 44-year relationship with our landlord, and I said, ‘I have to close.’

The Bergman store closed at the end of July.

In Tempe, Arizona, Brick Road Coffee opened during the pandemic in 2021. Gabe Hagen, co-founder and CEO of the café and roasting company, said he’s now grateful that… Customs duties on coffee were abolishedbut he still takes coffee at the higher tariff price.

“We order 4,000 pounds of coffee a month, primarily for two stores, and are facing increasing costs due to tariffs on green coffee and other supplies,” Hagen said. “Although the costs were absorbed by the café, unfortunately for our roasting business, we had to raise prices.”

Before the tariffs were imposed, Hagen said wholesale customers were paying about $10 a pound for roasted coffee beans. Now, customers are paying about $13.50 a pound, and he’s hoping he’s hit his peak.

Definitions of coffee have undergone significant and rapid transformations. Initial tariffs ranged from 10% to 50% from the highest on Brazil (50%), to low tariffs on India (25%), Vietnam (20%), and Indonesia (19%).

In an executive order issued in November 2025, most of those tariffs, including those on Brazil, were removed, but Hagen said the tariffs created lingering effects. His company mitigated tariff expenses by delaying store expansion and purchasing roasting equipment before the tariffs took effect. “We were entering a time where cash was going to be king, and as a small business, I didn’t have a lot of it,” Hagen said. “So I had to cut corners to try and maintain the longest runway possible and give me a chance to overcome the uncertainty.”

Hagen says consumers are weakening based on his company’s sales activity. “We are seeing our average ticket go down,” he said. “Although our traffic remains relatively stable year over year, our overall output is actually lower year over year. Consumers are tightening their wallets, and they’re not buying add-ons like cupcakes. Our fourth quarter was terrible. It was the worst in the four years we’ve been open.”

“The PTSD caused by the previous rise in inflation has flared up again,” says Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners. “And if it doesn’t fully trickle down to consumers, it’s been absorbed by businesses through lower profit margins. … The pain of tariffs is real, just ask any business and/or consumer. Inflation is a major economic pain point, so I think it’s definitely going to be a major issue.”