Inside China’s push to feed 1.4 billion people without U.S. crops

This report is taken from this week’s CNBC The China Connection newsletter, which brings you insights and analysis on what’s driving the world’s second-largest economy. You can subscribe here.

Over the past decade of trade tensions, the United States has repeatedly asked China to buy more American agricultural products. But many American farmers did Lost sales In light of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

As the largest U.S. agricultural export by value, soybeans make headlines. But even there, the White House did Struggle to make a deadline For new Chinese purchases of US soybeans. China bought a A record amount last year – Most of them are from Brazil. But Beijing’s ultimate goal is food security, meaning reducing dependence on other countries.

Here comes the role of corn.

Chinese researchers are developing corn with a higher protein content It can replace large amounts of soybean imports. Most soybeans are used in animal feed that supports local meat production. Here, China has a clear goal of promoting self-sufficiency. By 2030, China aims to reduce the amount of soy flour in animal feed Only 10%.

It is worth noting that Beijing called this month Increase the quality of local soybeansAnd not simply Plant moreAs urged last year. This indicates that the land is being saved for something else.

Technology-based agriculture

To address the challenges of limited farmland and a large rural population, Beijing has sought to use technology and targeted policies to achieve food security goals.

China has about three-quarters of the arable land of the United States, according to Goldman Sachs, despite having four times the population, meaning policymakers have had to redouble their efforts to increase yield per acre. About 34% of China’s population They live in rural areas, compared to about 20% in the United States

While most rural America is dominated by cornfields and tractors, if I take a similar trip through rural China, I see more mountains — and far more people still working the land by hand. The difference for urban consumers in China is that those farms are more connected to the Internet and high-speed trains.

Beijing’s efforts to reduce poverty and ensure social stability in rural areas have prompted infrastructure development across the country. E-commerce companies like JD.com and Pinduoduo have expanded into New markets in the countryside. Companies like DJI have also built a business around agricultural drones. Last year, while riding a high-speed train from Beijing to Shanghai, I saw a drone operating in a field.

Tech company Qicaihong has gone further, expanding from China’s Silicon Valley, Shenzhen, to a very rural area in Yunnan province to consolidate local corn production for larger markets.

Its local subsidiary, Shijing Agriculture Technology, uses sensors and software – including artificial intelligence from DeepSeek – to improve regional production. Instead of having to find their own sales channels, participating farmers working on small plots of land in the mountain steppe can sell their corn to the company at a set price for standardized processing, before selling the corn online and to major distributors.

A similar story is repeated in the northeastern province of Heilongjiang, where farmers can process corn at a central factory and sell it across the country and abroad under the “Laojiji” brand.

This is just one aspect of local agricultural development. China invests heavily in agricultural research and development, and so has its public sector spending Nearly double that of the US in 2019 and 2021.

By 2022, China has begun commercializing the first generation of biotech seeds that improved corn production by 10%, said Trina Chen, co-head of China equity research at Goldman Sachs.

This allowed the country to import only 2.65 million metric tons of corn in 2025, down from peak levels of about 30 million metric tons in 2022 and 2023, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.

Investor interest

More funds are preparing to enter China’s agricultural sector.

Last week, reports emerged that Chinese-owned agricultural technology giant Syngenta It is trying again to go public, this time in Hong Kong. The listing will be 20% of the company – Supporting investments in research and developmentThe Financial Times reported, citing a source.

Syngenta, whose management remains headquartered in Switzerland, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, the company’s business in China is making strides in supporting local seed development 111 new items Obtaining national approval for commercial use in the fiscal quarter ending October 30. With Syngenta’s global reach, it is building an agricultural advantage that can also compete abroad.

This is just a snapshot of China’s very complex national effort to reduce its dependence on the United States and other countries for food. But ingrained perceptions about food quality in China won’t disappear overnight – think tea growing alongside diesel trucks.

As an urban consumer in the country, what I do know is that I can now order produce online and it will arrive with almost the same freshness as if I had visited the farm.

For American farmers facing a more self-sufficient China, it may be time to start looking for new customers.

Trump and Xi call. The American and Chinese leaders discussed Taiwan and trade late last weekahead of Trump’s expected trip to Beijing in the spring.

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Struggling EV. BYD and other major Chinese electric vehicle companies have seen a Sales declined in January From December amid a continuing slowdown in demand.