Russia rebuilds military forces after million casualties, Estonia intelligence warns

Russian army It was badly damaged by its failure to invade Ukraine, but Moscow is now rebuilding its war machine for the long term, according to a new assessment from Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, even as the force it deploys relies more on mass and attrition than military quality.

The report says Russia has suffered catastrophic losses since its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, with an estimated one million soldiers killed or seriously wounded, depleting its ranks and forcing the Kremlin to rely on mass mobilization rather than professional military force.

Despite these losses, Estonian intelligence says the Kremlin is making up for it by shifting toward mass and attrition, dramatically expanding weapons production and reorganizing its military around size rather than quality, even as fighting continues in Ukraine.

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In sum, the assessment portrays a Russian military that has failed to defeat Ukraine, has suffered historic manpower losses, and has rebuilt the military on the basis of quantity rather than quality—leaving its true combat effectiveness increasingly in question.

The Russian military-industrial complex increased artillery ammunition production more than 17 times than in 2021, a significant increase. Report It refers to preparing for future conflicts rather than short-term battle needs, including rebuilding strategic stocks that were exhausted during the war. Russia produced nearly 7 million artillery shells in 2025 alone, according to the assessment.

In this photo released by the press service of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian Army’s Pion artillery system fires at a target at an undisclosed location in Ukraine. (Press Service of the Russian Ministry of Defense via AP)

The assessment warns that Russia remains a diminished power compared to pre-war projections – reliant on conscripts, convicts, foreign nationals and outdated, poorly trained equipment – ​​but warns that a deteriorating army rebuilt around attrition remains a long-term challenge for Russia. Ukraine, NATO and European Security.

Estonia, a frontline NATO country bordering Russia, has built one of Europe’s most detailed intelligence pictures of Russian military activity through its proximity, regional experience, and intelligence-sharing with allies. Its annual assessments are closely read within NATO because of their careful focus on Russia’s capabilities, limitations and long-term planning.

Nearly four years into the war, Estonia’s intelligence service says Russia has failed in its primary goal of subjugating Ukraine, which it describes as “more determined for independence than ever before.”

president Donald Trump He recently mocked Moscow’s performance, calling Russia a “paper tiger” in a post on Truth Social and asking how a superpower could spend “four years in a war that should have taken a week.”

President Vladimir Putin dismissed Western assessments of Russian military exhaustion as “wishful thinking.” Speaking in Minsk, Belarus, Putin claimed that Russia was actually preparing to “reduce defense spending” starting in 2026, setting the increase in production as an accomplished goal rather than a sign of desperation.

Putin responded to the “paper tiger” allegations: “We continue to move, we continue to advance, and we feel confident.” “If we are a paper tiger, then what is NATO?”

But the report concludes that “Russia remains dangerous despite its incompetence.”

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The intelligence service also confirms that Russia is not expected to launch a military attack against Estonia or any other NATO member next year, a ruling it says is likely to remain unchanged if current deterrence levels are maintained.

According to the report, Russia is “only pretending to be interested in the peace talks,” and is using the negotiations to buy time, relieve pressure on its economy and reset conditions for a longer-term confrontation rather than ending the war on terms acceptable to Ukraine.

To offset manpower losses, Russian authorities have built a nationwide recruitment system that increasingly relies on coercion and desperation rather than voluntary service, with regional governments under pressure to meet monthly conscription quotas at all costs, the report says.

Recruitment efforts It now focuses largely on “socially vulnerable groups,” including the unemployed, chronic debtors, detainees, individuals under judicial supervision, and those suffering from alcohol or drug addiction, according to the evaluation. Migrant workers and foreign nationals have also been swept into the system as traditional employment pools dry up.

The report links Russia’s military strategy to growing economic and social tension at home, saying that the long war has hollowed out civilian sectors of the economy while pushing the state to prioritize defense spending at the expense of living standards. Almost all non-military sectors are either in recession or in recession, increasing the risk of social instability in the coming years, the assessment says.

A local resident walks past a house destroyed by Russian bombing in Kramatorsk, Ukraine. (Andrey Andreyenko/The Associated Press)

The intelligence service also documents the use of foreign students – especially from African countries – who are lured by promises of employment or extension of stay, then redirected to military training and sent to the front. Hundreds of foreign nationals from countries such as Zambia, Tanzania, Cameroon and Nigeria have been deployed to Russian combat units, often with little training and limited understanding of the terms they have agreed to.

These foreign recruits are often assigned to units used to absorb heavy casualties, protect better-trained formations, and underscore what the report describes as Russia’s increasing reliance on expendable manpower rather than professional soldiers.

The assessment describes widespread chaos within the armed forces, citing abuse of power, corruption, theft, alcoholism and drug abuse as persistent problems that have eroded discipline and combat effectiveness. The report says front-line units are increasingly made up of individuals who “under normal circumstances should not be trusted with weapons.”

The Russian military-industrial complex has increased artillery ammunition production more than seventeen-fold since 2021, the report says. (Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images)

Russia also relied heavily on convicts to replenish its ranks. According to the report, between 150,000 and 200,000 prisoners were recruited from Russian detention facilities between 2022 and 2025, many of whom were convicted of serious violent crimes and received amnesty in exchange for serving on the front lines.

Despite the erosion of professionalism in its ranks, Estonian intelligence warns against interpreting Russia’s military shortcomings as a reduction in threat. Instead, she says, Moscow has adapted by adopting a model built on attrition, firepower and expendability, rather than maneuver warfare or elite units.

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For NATO planners, the worry is that rebuilding Russia around mass firepower and expendable manpower will lower the threshold for protracted, high-casualty conflicts, even if Moscow struggles with complex operations.

The report confirms that Russia has exhausted many of the military stocks it inherited from the Soviet Union and has revealed systemic problems within its armed forces. However, it continues to invest heavily in rebuilding ammunition reserves and unmanned systems that can be used outside Ukraine.

Not all analysts agree that “the masses” are the only way forward for Russia.

A Latest report The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) notes that 2026 will instead be a “year of hybrid escalation.” With traditional options “blocked by economic constraints,” researchers William Dixon and Maxim Beznosyuk argue that the Kremlin is focusing on a “thousand cuts” strategy of cheaper, deniable subversion across Europe.

“We must prepare not for a resurgent Russia, but for a desperate Russia,” the report warns.

This shift replaces traditional combat with an agile network of “disposable” saboteurs—recruited via encrypted apps to launch arson and infrastructure attacks—designed to break Western support for Ukraine from within.