Venezuela military looks strong on paper but experts say it’s hollowed out

With escalating tensions between Washington and Maduro regimeExperts told Fox News Digital that the Venezuelan army may appear formidable on paper, but it is hollow Years of corruptionDecay and political control. While they say Venezuela cannot stop a decisive US strike, any broader operation would be far more complex than the White House suggests.

Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat whose government was indicted at the International Criminal Court, described Venezuela as a criminal state dominated by drug trafficking networks.

He said, “Venezuela today resembles a castle built on sand surrounded by a criminal regime,” adding that any hypothetical American action would be tantamount to “expelling a terrorist gang that settled nearby and not invading a country.”

Medina warned that Venezuela’s dense civilian population – which is also a victim of the regime – requires extreme caution. “The only acceptable approach is an overwhelming bias towards restraint and long operational timelines, and abandoning targets that cannot be hit cleanly.”

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Soldiers from the Venezuelan army march in military vehicles during a parade as part of Independence Day celebrations at Fuerte Teona in Caracas, Venezuela on July 5, 2023. (Pedro Rances Mattei/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

He said the army’s capabilities appear better on paper than in reality, with equipment rusting due to lack of maintenance, and thousands of politically appointed generals separated from an estimated 100,000 lower-ranking soldiers who may abandon their positions under pressure.

Adm. (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center for Cyber ​​and Technology Innovation, told Fox News Digital that the most significant threat facing Venezuela lies within Venezuela. Naval air systems -And even those can be eliminated quickly.

“You have to break this,” he said. He added: “There is an air-sea component, which is likely what could affect our offensive operations,” including limited combat aircraft. Naval ships Russian-made surface-to-air missiles.

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Soldiers with their faces painted march during a military parade to mark the 205th anniversary of Venezuelan independence in Caracas, Venezuela, July 5, 2016. (Carlos Jasso/Reuters)

But Montgomery said the United States could neutralize them quickly. “Reasonably, in the first day or two of the campaign plan, we can eliminate the air and sea threat to American forces,” he said.

Any US plan targeting cocaine production would begin with “simultaneous strikes on airports, aircraft and air forces.” Air defense weapon systems “To ensure that we do not respond to any US attacks on other assets.”

Asked whether Venezuela could respond after such strikes, Montgomery replied: “Not against an air campaign. No.”

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Members of Venezuela’s Bolivarian National Guard stand in formation as they conduct an increased security patrol along Lake Maracaibo amid rising tensions between Venezuela and the United States, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on October 26, 2025. (Isaac Urrutia/Reuters)

Montgomery stressed that while air defenses could be eliminated quickly, a ground operation would be a completely different story. He added: “They have a small, professional army… numbering between 65 and 70 thousand people, many of whom may not want to join the army to fight.” The country also maintains a Huge militiawhose motivation is based on loyalty to Maduro.

But the geography and size make a ground operation a nightmare scenario. “Venezuela is probably twice the geographic size of California, with a population of 35 to 40 million citizens,” Montgomery said. “This is going to be a very difficult ground campaign, especially if it turns into a counterinsurgency campaign.”

He added frankly: “Today I would not do this. I do not recommend it.”

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A squad of K8W aircraft of the Venezuelan Air Force fly over the atmosphere of the Venezuelan Industrial Aviation Expo 2025 at the Libertador Air Base in Maracay, Aragua State, Venezuela, on November 29, 2025. (Pedro Rances Mattei/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

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Montgomery supports an air campaign that he believes will be more efficient than the current campaign Naval tactics. He cited his experience leading U.S. Navy counternarcotics operations: “Each of these 21 ships could have been stopped by a combination of Navy, Coast Guard and helicopter assets.” But intelligence often proved unreliable.

Despite years of decline, Venezuela still has a large and uneven mix of minerals Military equipment. Analysts say it cannot stop the US campaign, but it may complicate the early stages.

Soldiers take part in an exercise led by the Bolivarian National Armed Forces to train citizens in weapons handling, after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro deployed the army across communities across the country as part of a national outreach initiative aimed at training both conscript and resident citizens amid rising tensions with the United States, in Yagua, Venezuela, September 20, 2025. (Juan Carlos Hernandez/Reuters)

Its inventory is said to include 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad missile systems, and an estimated 6-10 flyable Su-30MK2 aircraft. Air defenses include the S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M systems.

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“The numbers show that only 20% of Venezuelans approve of this system,” said Jorge Jreissati, head of the Economic Inclusion Group, warning that for more than a decade “there has been no respect for the will of the population” as Caracas aligns itself with “anti-Western regimes that destabilize the region.”