Was the coup real or a ‘sham’?

Military coups are nothing new in Guinea Bissau. The West African country has seen at least nine successful coup attempts since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974.

But when army officers announced they had taken control of the country last Wednesday, some analysts and political figures were skeptical.

All the typical elements of a coup were present: gunfire was heard near the presidential palace, the president – ​​Uumaru Sissoko Embalo – was arrested and soldiers gave a speech on state television.

However, the other circumstances of the incident have been called into question, with Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan joining a chorus of voices who believe the takeover was masterminded by Embalo.

To complicate matters, the army insisted to the BBC that it had taken control of the country, but condemned the use of the word “coup.”

Junta leaders said they were working to thwart a plot by unnamed politicians who received “support from a known drug baron” to destabilize the country, which has become known as a drug trafficking hub.

Just three days before the military seized power, the citizens of Guinea-Bissau cast their votes in the presidential elections. Embalo, 53 years old, was running for a second term and his closest competitor was Fernando Dias da Costa.

Dias had the support of former Prime Minister Domingos Pereira, who was initially supposed to run for president on behalf of the main opposition party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde. However, Pereira was disqualified from the competition after authorities said he submitted his papers late.

The election results were supposed to be announced on Thursday, the day after the coup.

After hearing gunfire in the capital, Bissau. Embalo told French news site Jeune Afrique that he was arrested by men in military uniform at the presidential palace.

Military officers then appeared on state television, announcing that they had removed the president in order to thwart a plot to destabilize the country. The army suspended the electoral process and prevented the publication of the poll results.

In a short phone call, Embalo told FRANCE 24: “I have been isolated.”

Others were also arrested, including Pereira, Interior Minister Buchi Kande, and Army Commander General Biage Na Natan.

The headquarters of the Electoral Commission was attacked, and an official has since revealed that armed men wearing masks destroyed the papers and the main computer server that stored the results, meaning the election results could not be published.

The opposition, civil society organizations and politicians from West African countries cast doubt on the army’s announcement.

Embalo flew to neighboring Senegal on a Senegalese military flight after being released from custody on Thursday – a detail that Flavio Patica Ferreira, an official of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, found suspicious.

Ferreira, who was a former member of parliament, told the BBC: “The way he left Guinea-Bissau, with his family and luggage like a tourist, without any hindrance or resistance… All this shows that it was not a coup, because we all know how a coup works.”

In the series of coups in Africa over the past five years, no ousted leader has been allowed to leave the country as quickly as Embalo did.

However, two analysts told the BBC that Guinea-Bissau’s military may have felt that letting Embalo out as quickly as possible would result in a smooth transition.

Goodluck Jonathan, the former Nigerian president, also questioned the coup, saying the head of state would not normally be allowed to speak to foreign media on the phone during a military coup.

The former president, who was part of a team monitoring the elections in Guinea-Bissau, told reporters, “What happened in Guinea-Bissau was not a coup… For lack of a better word, I would say it was a celebratory coup.”

Jonathan is right, deposed leaders are not usually known to have contact with the outside world while in detention. But there are exceptions – The former president of Gabon filmed a video urging his “friends around the world” for support after his ouster in 2023..

The appointment of General Horta Ntam as the new military commander of Guinea-Bissau also raised suspicions, as the general was considered a close ally of Embalo.

Embalo did not respond to allegations that he orchestrated the coup.

Critics have long accused Embalo of fabricating coup attempts in order to suppress dissent, charges the former leader denies.

He said he has survived three takeover attempts overall. In December 2023, after such a coup plotEmbalo dissolved the opposition-dominated parliament. Since then, Guinea-Bissau has not had an existing legislature.

Some civil society organizations accused Embalo of orchestrating a coup last week in order to prevent the publication of any unfavorable election results.

Political analyst Ryan Cummings said that the president’s previous actions – Such as postponing the elections for a year – He raised such doubts. However, Cummings told the BBC that it was also “very plausible” that the armed forces acted independently to prevent a political stalemate, as both Embalo and Dias claimed to have won those elections.

Beverly Ochieng, a West Africa analyst at the intelligence firm Control Risks, acknowledged the doubts surrounding the coup.

But she said tensions within the political elite, coupled with the decision to bar Pereira from the presidential race, “likely contributed to the military intervention.”

General Ntam, the former Chief of Army Staff, was sworn in as President and is set to remain in power for a one-year transitional period.

The general appointed a new government consisting of 23 ministers and five ministers of state.

On the other hand, Embalo left Senegal for Congo-Brazzaville. According to sources in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, he left because he was upset by Senegal’s prime minister calling the coup “fake.”

Dias, who said he evaded arrest on the day of the coup, was granted asylum in Nigeria.

Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets on Saturday, demanding Pereira’s release. They also called on the authorities to publish the election results.

In addition, three civil society groups called for a general strike and a civil disobedience campaign in order to restore “electoral truth.”

But reactions were mixed, with some residents praising the army and expressing hope for an orderly transition.

Sankar Gassama told the BBC: “I am not against the military regime as long as it works to improve living conditions in the country.”

Former MP Ferreira described the atmosphere in the country as “tense.”

“No one knows what the future of Guinea-Bissau holds,” he said.

Additional reporting by Ines Silva